Behold - Saraki's Third Force

Date: 2015-06-28

Die-hard Buharists believe that their icon is infallible. The president's apparent lack of preparedness to govern is increasing the level of socio-political upheaval in the country and isolating him too. Boko Haram attacks are on the rise in spite of the relocation of the army command headquarters to Maiduguri, the Chad and Niger trip and the release of funds to the multi-national task force.

Thus far, no ministerial list, no SGF and no Chief of Staff to the president. This inertia paves the way for colluding evil servants in the looting experiment ample opportunity to destroy the bulk of the evidence needed to nail them and their former bosses. Buhari returned to clean the Aegean Stables but those who got him the mandate are not altruistic - they want power for themselves. The worst problem is the alignment at the Dome that is helping Bukola Saraki build a political Third Force. Politics is opportunism and those who know it shall eat its fruits. It was true change when the President refused to soil his mandate by picking leaders for the legislature. The position of president is a powerful one that often tempts the occupant to play God. One salutes PMB for not biting the bait. As far as conspiracy theories go, Buhari is a big disappointment for a man who allegedly sought the presidency to institute an Islamist agenda. It is clean clear that he did not pick his own deputy, Bola Ahmed Tinubu made that choice for him. Although posts and positions sometimes change the loyalties of men with no moral definition of the word, dependable servants would swim or sink with their godfather, especially if they have the keys to the pen where the yam and the goat are stored. Only time would reveal the true Osinbajo. Already, there are fake stories of him being locked out of security meetings in some quarters. These stories may be an attempt to test the waters.

In reality those who call the APC Asiwaju People's Congress are not far from the truth. The furore generated with the party's failure to install its preferred candidates at the Dome is both benign and dangerous. Having its way would have given Tinubu control of the presidency, then handed the nation's third and the fourth positions without being a de-facto state actor, not to mention his wife being a member of the red chamber. Such a scenario would've made Buhari a yo-yo president.

Buhari owes the success of the electoral coup that returned him to Atiku Abubakar, a political phenom and the real Turaki of politics. A maverick who won election as governor, but handpicked to become Vice President saw nothing wrong in turning against his boss in a political arm-wrestling contest. There were those who swear on their grandmother's graves that Obasanjo had to go on his knees to beg Atiku to get the support of the powerful Governor's Forum as their crisis coincided with second term politics. Obasanjo tried to clip the wings of his powerful deputy and there were talks of picking a loyal running mate. Atiku had enough political support to torpedo the move and perhaps make a successful solo run. It would have amounted to a big coup d'état. Obasanjo's read events correctly and quickly backtracked. The entire political story would have been different today.

Whatever happened at the APC primaries, there were clearly two contending dynamisms - the Turaki and the Jagaban forces. The Turaki forces did the political equivalence of tactical manouevre paving the way for Buhari's emergence. That withdrawal was a tad late. If it had come earlier, it would have made Atiku the real kingmaker and the godfather of any emergent vice presidential candidate. Today, the only Turaki eye in government is presidential spokesman Garba Shehu. It was symbolic that having disobeyed his party's directives and won the senate presidency, Saraki's earliest port of call was not to the president as leader of the party, but to Atiku. Atiku did not lead Saraki by the nose to the president who is leader of the party. It is evident that both Saraki and Atiku hate Tinubu's guts and hegemonic hold on the party. It would appear that both want a neutralising force except that Saraki has never been known to play second fiddle to anyone - not even to his own father.

Last week Saraki's Third Force had it's way, strategically positioning his own men in leadership positions. Atiku enjoys the drama from the sideline, but it is difficult to see if the president analyses the scenario. Again, real politicking starts when this president forwards his ministerial list from the island of integrity to the Dome. Would an untrusting Buhari without a hawkish political base get his best team? Who are they? True leadership is not measured by being tough on sleaze or populism but in cloning and grooming disciples. After 30 years in political limbo and the death of Tunde Idiagbon, who are Buhari's political godsons and daughters? Would they make the team or would he have to pick from the list of his strange bedfellows.

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