Date: 2015-09-25

It is yet to be seen if the ruling government and the party intend to come out stronger from the trial of Senator Bukola Saraki

"Because of the inordinate ambition of one man and lust to be the Senate President by all means, Saraki ignored the President, the Vice-President, APC governors, Senators, House of Reps members etc to sacrifice the unity of his party. Senator Saraki compounded the problems of APC, and mounted a major road block for its smooth take-off considering that it is just coming to power after 16 years in opposition. "This man put spanners in the works and initiated a serious internal crisis within the ruling party that nearly made Nigerians who massively voted for APC to begin to lose hope. Saraki and his gang of 40 thieves devastated the master plan of our great party to choose the right people to serve as the Principal Officers in the National Assembly." Those were some of the words of the Lagos State Publicity Secretary of the All Progressives Congress (APC), the gaseous Joe Igbokwe. His clearly unguarded but instigated position has further compounded fears if this whole drama of trial is all about the fight against graft or sheer power game.

The choice of the Senate President, Dr. Bukola Saraki as the scapegoat of President Muhammadu Buhari's anti-graft crusade may have been circumstantial as it is made to appear; it is however curious - from all indications. Although President Buhari may have been inconsistent with the modus operandi to the extent of his inaugural speech, it appears evident that the trial is more political than a genuine resolve to unravel any wrongdoing and establish justice. Apart from the glaring political underhand, the plethora of procedural flaws that are present in the trial are causes for concern about the future of a government that is yet to take-off, over 100 days after assuming office. Section 24 of the Code of Conduct Bureau and Tribunal Act contends that any charge to be preferred against any person under the Act can only be handled by the Attorney General or whoever he (the AG) has authorised to do so. Yet, that is one provision completely absent in the present prosecution. At least, Buhari is yet to have his own AG and the government is unable to wait to get an AG in place before proceeding with Saraki's trial simply because to appoint one, he has to appear before the same Saraki and others for confirmation. Therefore, the political musing that the plan is to get Saraki off their way before appointing an AG and others sounds plausible.

Here is another flaw. The CCB in this matter ignored its own procedure because Section 3 (d) of the Act requires it to offer the accused public officer the opportunity to either deny or admit to the non-compliance or breach and that it is only in the event of a denial that the matter can be forwarded to the Tribunal. But the provision was ignored. Instead, the Saraki team claimed to have first known about the charges through the regular news medium like every other person. He was later served more than 24 hours after it had been published on the online sites. How about this: all the witnesses produced at the CCT were Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) officials. If that is true, then it is correct, again, to assume that the EFCC might have helped the CCB to verify the assets or alternatively, that the two agencies are working together on the "Saraki Project"? Also, where do you place this: the CCT chairman, Mr. Danladi Yakubu Umar is allegedly under investigation and even being tried by the same EFCC, yet, he is the one sitting over the Saraki case? Some even say he does not qualify to sit on that seat by virtue of his age. Perhaps!

A member of the Code of Conduct Bureau (CCB) recently corroborated some of these assertions when he revealed that the entire trial was needless and in contradiction with the process stipulated in the Code of Conduct Bureau and Tribunal Act. The CCB member, who spoke on the condition of anonymity given the sensitivity and the political slant to the case, said if the Bureau had followed the provision of Section 3(d) of its own law, it would not have rushed to trial but first invite Saraki to come and defend whatever inconsistency or infraction observed in his asset declarations.

According to the member, the normal procedure according to the Section 3(d) of the Act is that the Bureau should set up a committee to determine whether an infraction has been committed by any public officer after submitting his/her asset declaration forms. Section 3(d) of the CCB Act states that: "The functions of the Bureau shall be ....to receive complaints about non-compliance with or breach of this Act and where the Bureau considers it necessary to do so, refer such complaints to the Code of Conduct Tribunal established by Section 20 of this Act in accordance with Section 20 to 25 of this Act. Provided that where the person concerned makes a written admission of such breach or non-compliance, no reference to the Tribunal shall be necessary." According to him, the Section of the Act was not complied with before the Senate President was charged before the tribunal. "If it had been complied with, the man will probably not even need to get to court at all, even if he committed all we are charging him with, once he admits the inconsistency and regularises them."

The source recalled that it was the same refusal to follow procedure stipulated in its own law that led to the collapse of the case filed by the Bureau against a former governor of Lagos State, Bola Tinubu in 2011. He hinted that some of his colleagues at CCB, who observed this lapse, were dissatisfied with the unilateral action of the CCB chairman, Mr. Sam Saba, who did not consult them before referring the matter to the tribunal. There is no doubting the fact that this whole trial is about the office Saraki is occupying and any attempt to ignore this fact is in itself dishonest. Since the trial started, one question has been constant at many fora and it is the fact that would government had put Saraki on trial if he was not the Senate President? The other leg to the question is: will government continue with this trial if he bows out as Senate President?

Saraki's crime, as it were, is in two-fold. However, one could have given way to another. First he challenged the authorities and defeated them to become the Senate President. But because the President had also committed himself by saying he belongs to nobody but all, the president pretended he didn't mind but asked that party supremacy must be upheld, the same party he (Buhari) failed to consult when making very critical appointment into first line offices. In the alternative, therefore, he wanted Saraki to make use of the list the party gave him for senate leadership positions since a few of the "president's men" were there. But a naïve Saraki didn't see the opening as well as the trap and announced that his hands were tied. He went ahead to announce the other list preferred by the senators since it is the prerogative of the senators to choose their leaders.

But that was believed in many quarters as the point the president allegedly swore to teach Saraki a lesson and make that action "his last betrayal". Whatever that means! Small wonder, no one disputed the speculation that the president was furious that he was led to the same praying ground as Saraki during the end of Ramadan feast, allegedly insisting never to have anything to do with him again. He had since turned down every entreaty for peace - sounding vindictive and unforgiving. As it is, it does appear the plan is to limit Saraki's option and play him out of his current office that seems to threaten the existence of the president. Indeed, his options are limited. At least, if the swirling rumour is anything to go by, those hounding Saraki are said to have concluded plans to dock his wife, Toyin soon after the eid-el Kabir celebration. So, it is either they watch him go down fighting if his fate has been sealed at the trial with all perfected or bounce off the other option.

This other option might be to have him resign and elect a new president of the senate. But whether he goes down fighting or resigns and the situation opens up the door for a new senate president, the vulnerable the All Progressives Congress (APC) becomes and the president had better prepare to live with a most likely Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) Senate President. Already, there are speculations that even with the Saraki trial yet to start, the party leadership has begun to subtly look for a replacement from the North central, preferably a Muslim. So, what does the equation look like in the zone? If it is not predominantly new intakes, it is populated more by Christians, who are ranking.

In Nasarawa, the two APC senators are new intakes. The three in Kogi are also new but all APC. Benue has two APC and one PDP. Though the three are ranking, however Christians. Plateau also produced all Christian senators with new two. In Kwara, although the three are Muslims and APC, one of them is a new intake. Niger's three senators are greenhorns. Definitely, the search would not be extended to Kwara. One, because Saraki is from Kwara and two, whoever is from Kwara is believed and seen to be loyal to Saraki. But who is that Muslim ranking senator from the zone to be senate president? None! It cannot also be Ahmed Lawan because he is from the same zone, North-east as Speaker Yakubu Dogara.

The implication of this, therefore, is that the APC might be playing to the hands of the PDP, whose 49 is not only intact, but will bountifully reap from APC's divided house (like the Tambuwal experience) and most likely elect a David Mark as Senate President. In any case, with the way Saraki is being treated, it is clear that the APC and its government cannot protect their own and would offer anyone for sacrifice whenever it chooses to if such person is seen as anti-establishment.

Ironically, whilst the party leadership may dread such a scenario (a PDP Senate President), they would be shocked that the president would not mind since he belongs to all and has the same military background as Mark; he would not mind for as long as it is not Saraki. Besides, such a scenario will most likely fly because the president does not seem to understand the dynamics of politics that control such power centres in relation to his own survival and that of his party within the fragile equation, outside grandstanding on his god complex.

Taken together, it is clear that the variegated colours of the APC change are fast blurring out of their beauty and comfort zone early in the day. It is true that emotions are still running high, which seem to have beclouded many a good reasoning and judgment; they cannot stand a good test of time, regardless of Saraki's alleged shortcomings. A corruption trial that is itself fraught with dishonesty, fraud and put together for seeming vendetta cannot pass the change test... only a matter of time!

The Parting Shot... A team that suddenly found itself on the premier table has decided to play more defensive roles rather than attacking for goals. The coaches and technical handlers are busy fighting the team's best strikers, and now that most of the midfielders and strikers will have to watch the team performance from the bench, the obvious thing to expect is relegation if at the end of the league season the team cannot score goals to retain their position on the league table. We are watching!