Although I left Ilorin for Lagos about three years ago, I have been in touch with the State and I often visit, sometimes thrice in a single week. I have been following the politics of Kwara State closely.

Recently, I came across a declaration by the first son of the business mogul, Hajia Bola Shagaya to contest the House of Representatives election. Being a young man (I am just four years older than him) I naturally took interest in the write-up. Since that day, I have followed the actions and activities of Sherif to ascertain the seriousness of his ambition. I am afraid, I have not seen too much seriousness and I will explain why.

In the first instance, Sherif is also making the same mistake Dele Belgore made in 2011 elections. Dele was a visiting politician then, always coming to Ilorin for weekend and going back to his cozy apartment in Lagos. Kwarans want individuals who are part of them to rule them. These individuals may not necessarily be based in Ilorin, but Ilorin people expect that the moment you declare ambition to lead them, you must live amidst them to understand their pains and travails. Sherif has obviously not learnt this lesson, because he still stays back in Abuja even three months to the election he hopes to win. Mistake number one.

Secondly, Sherif may lose the 2015 elections, not because he doesn't have a vision of what to do if elected, but because those who are saddled with the task of galvanizing the people around the vision are not experienced enough. As a reporter with a potent nose for news, I was able to extract information that validated the news that one Muftau Akanbi Oke is the Campaign manager to Sherif Shagaya.

What are the questions Sherif asked Akanbi Oke before engaging him as campaign manager? How many campaigns has Akanbi-Oke successfully coordinated in the past? What is the track record of the young man in terms of campaign management? These are questions I am not sure Sherif cleared with Akanbi Oke before he engaged him. And the first determinant of a win or lose for a candidate is the quality of the person coordinating his campaign. On this score, I think Sherif also made a wrong choice. For one, I gathered that the young Akanbi Oke was a former driver with an alleged reputation for betraying his previous masters. Engaging this sort of person with no knowledge of modern campaign techniques or even how to connect with increasingly sophisticated voters is MISTAKE NUMBER 2 that may cause Sherif to lose the election.

I have hinted earlier that Sherif himself is not always available in Ilorin to attend to several groups and associations who are eager to support him. Even though I learnt that he (Sherif) his engaging the youths very well on social media, they (youths) still need him to be physically present. This would be a great boost to their morale. But the absence of Sherif in his so-called campaign office in Ilorin is another mistake that will prove too costly. Recently, the All Progressives Congress in the State claimed that 2,000 supporters of Dele Belgore, all of them youths, defected to the party from the PDP. The principal reason they cited for their defection was the inaccessible nature and frequent absence of Mr. Belgore from the State. And Sherif has obviously not picked any lesson from this.

Sherif is making another big mistake in the way and manner he is handling the media. No matter your influence, a single bad publicity would detract from that influence by at least 70 percent. This is why smart politicians don't joke with the media. In Nigeria here, elections are first won or lost on the pages of newspapers. I am a Journalist, so I should know.

I am aware that Sherif has appointed a media consultant. This is a big mistake and a wrong move. Politicians no longer appoint media consultants to manage their publicity and/or their image. Smart politicians build their own internal media team, which of course would be a part of the enlarged campaign team. Why can't Sherif borrow a leaf from Bukola Saraki? When he was contesting against late Admiral Lawal in 2003, he built a strong media team as part of the Mandate 2003 (his political organization then). In fact, he even had a campaign spokesman in the person of Zakari Muhammed, who is now an Honourable in Abuja. So who is speaking for Sherif and how strong is his media team, if at all he has any.

I once came across a press statement signed by one Sofihullah Kehinde, who claimed to be a media consultant to Sherif Shagaya Campaign Organization. The statement, which was obviously drafted by the Kehinde guy, had no imprint of Sherif who is supposed to be the candidate. From the long-winding sentences and grammatical blunders, it was obvious from that press statement that Sherif either made a mistake appointing a wrong media aide, or that Sherif himself has no ability to represent anyone and therefore has no business contesting the election.

If you want to convince your reader, you must first prove that your mind is in what you are saying and that you believe it yourself. For God's sake, how can a young man who is supposed to be very exposed hire a media consultant that would write "He (Sherif) assured that he would accost home to victory during the forthcoming PDP primary". It is no longer coast home to victory but "accost home to victory". The same media consultant would write "I am also believed..." instead of "I also believe". These are just minor extracts from the rubbish Sherif's media team called press statement. Yet, they want both their readers and the electorates to take them serious. How can?

At the moment, it is clear that Sherif Shagaya has no clear winning strategy other than a very absolute reliance on his mother's influence and closeness to the seat of power in Abuja. But Osun State election and its outcome has shown us that while Federal might is indeed mighty and potent, it doesn't always deliver expected result. Sherif, if he doesn't go back to the drawing board and fast enough, may just be shocked at the sterile nature of Federal might sometimes.

There are still so many things that Sherif is presently taking for granted. For instance, my findings revealed that his likely opponent and the incumbent, Moshood Mustapha, has lost a huge support base and that very few people in the Constituency actually want him to be re-elected. The recent fire-brigade and emergency empowerment of Hon. Moshood has not changed this scenario. Yet, Sherif is not taking advantage of the bad reputation of his presumed opponent to rally the disillusioned youths, especially first time voters to support his candidacy. This is a life-line that not many politicians would neglect.

But in spite of all the aforementioned mistakes, it is still not too late in the day for Sherif to reorganize himself if he really intends to win the election. Firstly, he needs a vibrant media person or team that would respond to issues as they come up. I am yet to see any press statement from the so-called media consultant to Sherif on the flood that ravaged many areas in Ilorin, majority of whom are within the Constituency Sherif intends to represent.

Someone told me that Sherif himself has put out a statement on his Facebook campaign page, but that is not enough. A good media aide or team should have issued a press release immediately the flood occurred. And Sherif himself would have scored a good public relations opportunity by visiting some of the flooded areas to empathize with the victims.

Going forward, Sherif will need a vibrant and very good campaign think-tank who can think out of the box. What he (Sherif) needs at this moment are not political jobbers loitering around his campaign office. He needs people with great ideas, and who, like one of his campaign messages indicates, will bring FRESH START to everything that Sherif intends to work on in his Constituency if elected.

Sherif also needs a media team that would religiously and consistently engage the prospective voters. The electorate needs answers to so many questions. If they can't get the information they need from a candidate or his team, then they don't have anything upon which to base their decision when they file out to vote. And the candidate will do well not to expect their votes, because he never gave them reasons why they should vote for him in the first place.

For Sherif to do well at the polls next year, he needs to renew his tactics and double his energy. He needs to forget about his business in Abuja or elsewhere for now and come live with the people he intends to serve. He must share their pain and partake in their merriment. He would do well to give solidarity and empathy to the under-privileged in his Constituency, even as a candidate. I don't see any reason why Sherif should not visit the areas within his Constituency affected by the recent flood. This would go a long way to prove to the people that his affection for them is not just about the votes.

Sherif must also take advantage of the enthusiasm of majority of youths about his candidacy. He must know how to make his youthfulness work for him. And even if the APC decides to substitute Moshood Mustapha with another candidate, Sherif still has a huge advantage if he can begin to correct the mistakes he is currently making.

This is my 1 billion dollar worth of free advice for Sherif Shagaya. I hope he listens, and I wish him all the best.

Wale Abideen writes from Lagos.