When a crisis broke out in the Nigerian Governors’ Forum (NGF) in 2013 following a disputed election between Rivers State Governor Chibuike Amaechi and Plateau State Governor Jonah Jang, many never thought that the crisis in the governors’ club would shape the outcome of last weekend’s presidential election, which was then two years away.

Many analysts had thought that beyond the unnecessarily heating up of the polity and distracting the key gladiators from concentrating on governance, it was just a muscle-flexing exercise between a “recalcitrant” Ameachi, who was then chairman of the forum, and President Goodluck Jonathan.  Like in every duel between strong and weak political combatants, the outcome was erroneously thought to be predictable – polarisation and eventual death of the forum, a reduction of Ameachi’s influence among his colleagues, and an end to the ability of the forum to present a unified front against the president and his policies.

Yes, the prediction was accurate. The crisis polarised the forum, weakened Amaechi’s political influence among the 36 state governors, and ended the ability of the governors to present a common front on any issue where conflict existed with the federal government.

But two years after, it has dawned on the presidency that it was a pyrrhic victory. Sadly, it was too late. Jonathan’s re-election bid has been dealt a fatal blow.

How did the crisis in the forum start? Amaechi, a Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) governor, who was then the chairman of the forum, was accused of publicly criticising several of Jonathan’s policies and using the platform to mobilise his colleagues, a chunk of who were in opposition parties, to oppose federal government’s deductions from the revenue accruing to the federation that should have been shared among all tiers of government.

Even though the presidency could not do much to check him, it waited patiently for his tenure to come to an end and hoped that he would be replaced by a friendly leadership. But emboldened by the strong support he enjoyed among his colleagues, particularly governors elected on the platform of the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (CAN), Amaechi declared his intention to seek another term in office.

Convinced that he had the support of majority of his colleagues, for the first time in its history, an election was called to choose the chairmanship of a forum that ordinarily should be an assemblage of state chief executives that had no constitutionally recognised role. The presidency quickly deployed its arsenal, creating the PDP Governors’ Forum whose membership constituted the majority in the NGF to foil Amaechi’s second term bid.

Though Bauchi State Governor Isa Yuguda signified his intention to vie for the NGF chairmanship position, Jang was adopted as the consensus candidate of the PDP Governors’ Forum - a bloc vote that should have been the killer punch to Amaechi’s aspiration.

But when elections were consequently held at a gathering that had 35 governors in attendance (excluding Yuguda), Amaechi polled 19 votes while Jang had 16. Both however laid claims to victory, a development that factionalised the forum with each of the two contestants setting up separate secretariats and retaining the governors that voted for them.

As the crisis in the NGF widened, it left in its trail, political casualties. First, the Northern Governors’ Forum had a direct hit.  Some of its members threatened to withdraw their membership, with Yuguda belling the cat.
Yuguda was one of the two governors that wanted to contest against Amaechi but later stepped down for Jang. It was apparent to governors on Jang’s side and the presidency that the votes of the Northern Governors’ Forum Chairman and Niger State Governor Babangida Aliyu; Kano State Governor, Rabiu Kwankwaso; and Jigawa State Governor Sule Lamido gave Ameachi the victory in the election.

The PDP Governors’ Forum, headed by Akwa Ibom State Governor Godswill Akpabio, whose membership constituted the bulk of those that voted for Jang, was also affected by the crisis, as those governors who voted for Amaechi stopped attending its meetings.

The NGF crisis later had insidious effect on the PDP as a party. At the party’s mini convention in August 2013, seven of its governors – Murtala Nyako (Adamawa),
Ahmed Abdulfattah (Kwara), Aliyu Wamakko (Sokoto), Lamido, Kwakwanso, Amaechi and Aliyu, as well as former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar, among others, stormed out of the convention ground. Other than the outcome of the NGF election, the seven governors also had issues with the then National Chairman of the PDP, Bamangar Tukur, who they insisted must be sacked. But Jonathan refused to yield to their demands.

That was the beginning of the New PDP, which later dissolved into the mega opposition party, the All Progressive Congress (APC), though two of the governors – Aliyu and Lamido did not defect to APC. With the loss of five governors, not a few people believed that PDP had been struck by a fatal blow whose impact would only be felt in a general election.

In the end, Amaechi, under whose watch Rivers delivered 1.8 million votes to Jonathan in the 2011 election was to later emerge as the Director General of the APC standard-bearer Muhammadu Buhari Presidential Campaign Organisation, and one of the biggest financiers of the presidential bid of the retired general who had had three previous unsuccessful shots at the presidency. But this time around, it was Kwakwanso’s Kano that delivered a staggering 1.9 million votes to Buhari last Saturday.

Essentially, the NGF crisis that looked like a lambent flame in 2013 snowballed into an uncontrollable conflagration that has now cost Jonathan his re-election.