As the political clock ticks and the march towards the 2015 general elections gathers momentum, politicians have begun repositioning themselves through alliances, defections and secret deals in order to be relevant in the next regime.

In Kwara State, early indications that the 2015 elections will take a different twist from what it used to be have started emerging with the intensification of the rivalry between the All Progressives Congress (APC) led by former governor Bukola Saraki and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) which has the support of President Goodluck Jonathan and his supporters in the state.

Bukola used to be the undisputed leader of Kwara politics. In 2011, he was the sitting governor of the state who almost single-handedly installed all the elected officials from Kwara as well as nominated political appointees.

He was also the chairman of the then powerful Nigerian Governors' Forum.

In 2011, Bukola was the PDP leader in Kwara as well as the governor. He parted ways with his father, Oloye Olusola Saraki, over who would succeed him as governor as, while Oloye wanted his daughter and Bukola's sister, Gbemi, to take over the baton from him, Bukola backed the current governor of the state, Abdulfatah Ahmed, emphasising his grip on the politics of the state.

But recent happenings in the state have made many to reevaluate the firmness of the grip of the former governor on the politics of the state.

They contend that the performance of the governor is nothing to write home about, saying this will affect the chances of the APC in the next election.

Mohammed Abdulrafiu, a political analyst from Ilorin, flayed the current administration brought in by Saraki saying it has not performed to expectation.

He said: "The performance of the governor is appalling. I cannot really point at any meaningful development projects in the state initiated and completed by this governor."

Dele Belgore, a former gubernatorial candidate of the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) and leading PDP member also picked holes in the running of government in the state.

"What you see is that the state has been driven close to bankruptcy. As you could recall, some time ago, Assets Management Corporation of Nigeria,(AMCON) said that Kwara was unbankable. That cannot surely be evidence of transformation or development. Kwara is a first generation state that was created in 1967.

Today, it is economically backward and does not rank among any of the first generation states. It, indeed, ranks with some third generation states. That cannot be favourably evidence of good leadership. Kwara State people deserve better," he said.

APC secretary in the state, Prince Yemi Afolayan, in reaction, however said those saying Governor Ahmed had not performed are either "blind, deaf or dumb", adding "if they are not blind, they would have passed through the road in front of General Hospital going to Geri Alimi and if they decided to look at their right hand side, they would have seen massive rehabilitation of that general hospital which was hitherto a ghost of itself and when you look at that building, then you would know that it compares favourably with any health institution of its kind. That is on health ground. Go to Offa General Hospital, go to Omu Aran General Hospital, Kaiama and Share.

"And when you talk about educational institution, over 500 classrooms were built and renovated. Over 350 transformers were distributed to towns and villages, connecting them to national grid. Oro, Arandun, Ipetu-Aran Orin road is ongoing, over N1bn and then Ijomu Oro, Oke Rimu Oro, Isanlu-Isin to Ijara, Isapa, Osi township road," he said.

He added that the township road in Isanlu-Isin where the PDP chairman hails from would be commissioned next week during the third year anniversary, saying 5,400 youths have just been engaged.

One of Bukola's strong supporters and Commissioner for Energy in the state, Alhaji Musa Abdullahi, also said any rating of Governor Ahmed's performance that fails to give him a pass mark is biased.

He said this has shored up the acceptability of the APC in the state while exposing the PDP.

"What is obvious is obvious. Considering the prevailing political situation, the APC is the party to beat in Kwara State considering the level of acceptability. APC is the only party that can give hope, good governance, to the people. PDP has completely become a moribund party, can't you see the rate at which people are defecting from PDP to APC in the state. This is a clear manifestation of the acceptability of the leadership quality of Senator Abubakar Bukola Saraki," he said.

There are however, other factors that have crept in to indicate that the next election would be slightly different. Currently, the people of Ilorin are clamouring for a governor from their zone. Ahmed is from Kwara South and of the three zones in Kwara, Ilorin is the most populated and the votes from the zone are usually the deciders in gubernatorial elections.

The PDP with an eye on the precious prize ensured its new chairman, Iyiola Oyedepo, is from the South, freeing it to field a candidate from Kwara Central and thus leverage on the yearnings of the people from the emirate.

As Governor Ahmed is believed to be set to seek a second term, there are many who believe his closeness to Bukola, though has given him many advantages, could also throw many challenges on his path.

Bukola is known to have left the PDP and with that forfeited all the state support he might have enjoyed during elections. But beyond this, it was said that the former governor has not been servicing his political structure, as he ought to. Many of his former acolytes and associates have since moved over to the PDP or sitting delicately on the fence; staunch grassroots politicians such as Yinka Aluko, a former security adviser to both Saraki and Abdulfatah; Gani Olododo, a former Chief of Staff and Secretary to the State Government during Saraki's tenure, and Alhaja Musilamat Ibrahim, the former women leader of the APC, amongst many others.

Other political forces that are against Saraki have found a common platform in the PDP: Dele Belgore, the former gubernatorial candidate of the ACN; Gbemi Saraki, a former senator and ex-gubernatorial candidate of the ACPN; Bunmi Olusona, interim chairman of APC in the state and Bilikis Gambari, Senatorial candidate of the CPC in Kwara central, amongst many others. Original PDP members who did not quit the party with the earlier defectors such as Prof. Abdulraheem Oba, Chairman of the Federal Character Commission, and Ibrahim Bio, a former Minister of Sports, are working hard to ensure victory for the PDP in the next elections.

But the APC state secretary insists Saraki remains a force in Kwara. "You see the remaining people in PDP, majority of them don't know what they are doing. For anybody to say they are going to dislodge Saraki hegemony or Saraki in Kwara, they must be living in fool's paradise.

"Even Mr. President and the national leadership of PDP have no trust in the remaining people in the PDP in Kwara because these are people that are groping their ways in darkness; these are people that are completely disjointed; these are people that would say one thing today, and say another thing tomorrow. They are not just having a divided house, they are having a shattered house. Everyday their supporters keep on leaving and joining us," he said.

Whether or not Bukola Saraki would continue to hold the ace in Kwara politics, the next election would show.