Date: 2014-08-10

Like it was the case in 2007, the number of P.D.P. gubernatorial candidates from Kwara South Senatorial District is growing by the day. At the last count, five candidates have declared their gubernatorial ambitions as contenders against the sitting Executive Governor, Dr. Alhaji Abdulfatah Ahmed who incidentally is also from Kwara South.

An ethnic-based analysis of the five  Kwara South P.D.P. contenders has shown that of the five, two are from the core Igbomina (Ifelodun, Isin & Irepodun LGAs), two are from the core Ibolo (Offa and Oyun LGAs) while only one is from core Ekiti (Ekiti LGA). Surprisingly, each of the PDP contenders has been demonstrating his capabilities and capacities by advertising his credentials as the yard stick. Truly, their credentials have shown what each of them has been, what he is currently and what he wishes to be in 2015. What are common in their credentials are mainly that they are Kwara Southern people and all of them too desired to be the Executive Governor of the State ill 2015. Otherwise they are of varied academic, training, exposure and life experiences.

Thus the struggle among the Kwara Southem PDP candidates for gubematorial ticket of their party is ceaselessly unleashing un-resolvable intra-party conflicts with attendant mega size tension within the PDP Each candidate has been using his credential(s) for the promotion of self interest which has overwhelmed the protection and defence of the collective interest of their party, P.D.P. In Kwara South, aspirants have been working across purposes with thin boundaries of potential understanding and intra-party cohesion. Indeed the survival of their party, PDP is no longer cardinal in the matrix of their strategy Rather than build viable structures for the survival of the party in the district each aspirant is busy synthesizing artificial criteria to promote self-aggrandizement and redressing personal political delinquencies of past betrayal, disloyalty and ingratitude that had manifestly characterized their personalities.

While this political charade played on in the Kwara South PDP, other political parties in Kwara South, though delighted, but the generality of our people had become conclusively disillusioned and disappointed because of the outrageous display of the self-interest as PDP leaders in the district showing wanton abandonment of the interest of the people they desire to serve using the platform of their PDP as a party. Naturally, other political parties are catching on the hemorrhagic anemia of the PDP in the district now under political intensive care management. And this explains why there have been massive defections, on daily basis, of followers back to All Progressives Congress (APC) from where they have gone on holiday on political espionage to PDP.

I have postulated Arithmetic solutions to resolve the problem of nomination gubernatorial primaries of candidate(s) for the Kwara South P.D.P. gubernation/ contenders because I am a Citizen of Kwara South. I am very concerned about the need to streamline the moment of force that will lead to the emergence of a PDP Southem gubernatorial candidate that will face other PDP contenders from the other two senatorial districts.

My arithmetic solution is Kwara South major based. It is not enough to parade credential each candidate is expected to bring to the table the population/sponsoring endorsing him since charity begins at home. Table shows the 2006 NPC census figures of the seven (7) LGAs that make up Kwara South District while Table II depicts the contributions of the three ethnic nations to the population/electorate resources of Kwara South district.

It is of general acceptability that the potency and democratic process is anchored on population resource””, representation and pluralism. Therefore tables I & II give Kwara Southern gubematorial candidate the opportunity to determine where his electoral nomination fortunes could be from the LGA to ethnic nation levels. The two tables I & II arithmetically affords the leadership of Kwara South to carry out a strategic elimination of population resources highlighted in tables I & II will, conclusively, be the least favoured as a PDP Gubernatorial candidate and a potentially failed nominee. This is because all the five (5) candidates are parading intimidating political and professional credentials. There is therefore the need to use a common denominator to eliminate contenders on assumed equal pedestal.

Therefore in the order of possible nomination, the five PDP candidates of Kwara South stand as follows:

PDP candidates of Kwara stand as follows:

The Igbomina Gubematorial candidates have more people they represent as well as more people possibly asking them to contest since they are, ultimately, the electorate. The two candidates for now, are therefore, the most to be likely favoured by PDP even then any of the two candidate who is from Ifelodun LGA will be most favoured because the LGA alone is contributing 29.00/0 or 50°/0 out of the total 58.2% contribution of Igbomina ethnic nation. I have given allowance candidates’ loyal followers both across LGAs and in fact within each ethnic nation.

Therefore if an Ifelodun LGA-Igbornina PDP candidate emerges, it will be very easy for the LGA to do an analytically wide consultation to decide between a would-be gubernatorial candidate of PDP and a sitting Executive Governor of APC whose second tenure come 2015 has been guaranteed by the leadership of his party, the All progressive Party, APC. The Ifelodun L.G.A occupies a very strategic position in the demographic structure of Kwara South as the most populous L.G.A with about 205,000 people by 2006 NPC population census. With this leadership position, whatever direction the LGA goes in Kwara South will largely influence the aggregate electoral fortune of Kwara South Senatorial District in the Kwara State power equation.

Though the Kwara South Consultative Forum has spoken to support the second term of four years of Alhaji Dr. Abdulfatah Ahmed, I am waiting for the people of Ifelodun LGA, by action to confirm and underscore incontrovertible position of the Kwara South consultative forum.