Unlike the selec-tion of APC's presidential flag bearer and his lieutenant, the election into Nigeria's third most important political office has been messy and there's no doubt that some politicians are going to pay for it by and by and one of them is Saraki.

It is obvious that the mainstream All Progressives Congress (APC) is exasperated by Abubakar Bukola Saraki's Senate Presidency; he wasn't their candidate for the office and his manner of ascendancy is discourteous to the party. Most followers of Buhari are chagrined by what they consider as Saraki's heretical methodology for emerging Senate President.

The party was absolutely right in characterising Saraki's politics at the Senate as treacherous. His alliance with the People's Democratic Party (PD) and Ike Ekweremadu in particular is galling and exposes him as a dangerous and unreliable party man with one foot deliberately thrust outside the tent. No principled party man will go into an election with a majority of his party members outside the venue, but that was exactly what Saraki had preferred during the election for Senate President. Here is a party resoundingly rejected by Nigerians but now brought back into reckoning by Saraki just so as to satisfy his own ambition. However, those who had watched Saraki's tango with late Dr Olusola Saraki (may Allah bestow mercy on his soul) over the 2007 gubernatorial election in Kwara State understood that the younger Oloye would go to any length to fulfil a troubling ambition. It may be rare but ambitious princes had always upstaged waning father Kings unwilling to vacate the stool.

Henceforth, Saraki will be viewed with suspicion by the mainstream APC. All the talk about him not returning to the PDP is gobbledygook. If Saraki can unite with PDP to clinch the Senate number one position, what stops him from returning to his former party if he is sure they can help him win the ultimate prize? But as he split the APC in the Senate, so will his nPDP be divided against him in no time.

Bukola Saraki has all the time wanted to be a President of sort, actually, President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. The story in town is that he badly manoeuvred himself into Senate Presidency in order to position himself for the struggle for the Presidency in 2019. But can Saraki's Senate Presidency truly be a stepping stone to Nigerian Presidency? It is doubtful.

First of all, Saraki has a very limited constituency. Outside Kwara, he is an unknown quantity and his state cannot even deliver one million votes. Bukola has beaten Dr Olusola Saraki's political record alright, but there is no higher office available or realisable by him.

Secondly, Bukola is like a bat, politically; he is both Fulani and Yoruba, which is nice for his person, but is viewed with suspicion by each of the two groups, unable to ascertain his loyalty. He is not known up North, definitely, he doesn't appeal to the Fulani and they have no reason to vote for him when he presents himself for election in 2019.

In the Yoruba South West, this skirmish in the Senate will hurt Saraki. Make no mistake about it; Bola Ahmed Tinubu is the leader of the Yoruba. He's a tireless party builder, patient and shrewd. His large, coherent and loyal followership goes where he directs them. Don't ever bank on paper politicians like Ayo Adebanjo, Olu Falae, Yinka Odumakin, etc, who bring no votes.

The North East will not warm up to Saraki. He can play a little in Gombe and Taraba states, but that's all. Adamawa, Borno, Bauchi and Yobe will certainly stick with the mainstream APC and oppose any Saraki bid for APC ticket. The North West will be Saraki's graveyard. Except for Zamfara, where Ahmed Sani Yerima's perfidy is well known, Saraki cannot count on anyone, not even Sokoto, where Aminu Tambuwal will join the 2019 scrimmage and flex muscle with his predecessor, depending on which way the cat jumps.

If Saraki contests the 2019 presidency, his best bet is to replay his current Senate Presidency ticket and run with Ike Ekweremadu on PDP platform or some other party they can put together. But as recent elections have proved, the South East has one of the least numbers of votes among the so called six geo-political zones. Saraki can't even count on the South South if the unfolding political developments are anything to go by. The likes of Amaechi, Sylva, Adams Oshiomhole, etc, will be implacably opposed to him.

The claim that Tinubu wanted to take over the National Assembly to stymie Buhari is claptrap. APC's candidate for Senate Presidency, Ahmed Lawan, cannot be Tinubu's lackey in so far as Saraki cannot be Buhari's pawn. Buhari has no reason to mistrust Tinubu and the former needs no protection from the latter. Buhari and Tinubu are and remain partners in progress and persons angling to build political career on Buhari-Tinubu crisis are evil. In my reckoning, Tinubu is more trustworthy than Saraki and will take a pound of flesh in due course.

As always, APC's undoing has been the disclosure of its strategies ahead of time. Well before they consummated their merger, the legacy parties had announced APC as the new name for their party and almost immediately, the PDP mobilised clowns to steal the name. By stating that Ahmed Lawan was the party's preferred candidate for Senate Presidency because he has unblemished records, the APC had stirred the devil in some ex-governor Senators with criminal records. They would torpedo your choice in order to have one of them in the strategic office. A Senate controlled by Saraki, Ekweremadu, Danjuma Goje, Ahmed Sani and David Mark has no appetite for change and cannot deliver it. Bukola's victory will be short lived and he’ll need the party shortly.