In the wake of the fuel scarcity that nearly shut down the country, the debate on subsidy has again been reignited and those who previously stood against its removal, now urge the new president, Muhammadu Buhari, to do away with it. But will the president get the nod from the generality of Nigerians to finally end the subsidy regime? Michael Oche writes

There is no official proclamation on this yet but there is a possibility that president Muhammadu Buhari might agree, even though he has confessed that he has no idea what fuel subsidy means.

Several past governments have tried to remove the subsidy but have backed down in the face of widespread public outcry and reduced it instead. Nationwide protests broke out in 2012 when President Goodluck Jonathan's administration attempted to remove fuel subsidy.

Nigeria is Africa's biggest oil producer but imports refined petrol. Years of mismanagement and corruption mean Nigeria does not have the capacity to refine oil into petrol and other fuels.

Earlier in April 2015, there was confusion as to whether the National Assembly passed the 2015 budget without making provision for payment of subsidy. However former minister of Finance, Dr Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, said government had not removed fuel subsidy from the 2015 budget, as she confirmed that there was a provision for N145.2 billion in the budget.

Okoye Francis, a political commentator however, told LEADERSHIP Sunday that, "the amount provided for the purpose is short of the estimated one trillion naira that the government claims it spends on subsidy annually".

He said the implication is that the new administration, if it wishes to continue the subsidy at current levels, will have to fund it through a supplementary budget.

In 2013, the government budgeted N970 billion for fuel subsidy out of which N515 billion was released to oil marketers. In the 2014 budget, a similar amount was budgeted for subsidy, while N414 billion was released to oil marketers.

However, in spite of the huge sums spent on subsidy, the impact is hardly felt by the vast majority of Nigerians as petrol and kerosene do not sell at the official prices, even in the Niger Delta areas where the bulk of Nigeria's oil output is produced from.

This has prompted many Nigerians to call for the total removal of the subsidy. Proponents of the removal of the subsidy say it will make the recurrent incidence of fuel scarcity a thing of the past, or at least, reduce it to the barest minimum.

They point to the telecoms industry, which was removed from the monopoly of the Nigerian Telecommunications Limited (NITEL) by former President Olusegun Obasanjo's regime fourteen years ago. Since that time, nobody hears about strikes in the sector. Furthermore, telephone, which was touted as luxury service meant for only the rich, is not only available to everyone with service providers offering generous discounts to win more customers, the sector has also become one of the greatest sources of direct and indirect employment in our economy.

They also posit that deregulation of the petroleum products sector will create a similar commercial impetus and hasten the proliferation of refineries in the country since official red tapism will give way to forces of demand and supply.

In 2012, the organised labour and civil society led a protest against the subsidy removal. But with the recent happenings, both labour and civil society seem to be divided as to whether to support the subsidy removal or not.

The Nigeria labour congress (NLC) in its agenda for the Buhari administration said, "Labour will lend its support to legislation, policy and strategy that restore immediate regular supply of petrol as well as guarantee long term sustainable availability through enhanced local refining capacity".

Oil workers, under the aegis of Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN) have also indicated that they are not totally against subsidy removal but have only given conditions before it can take effect.

The spokesperson of PENGASSAN, Emmanuel Ojugbana said, "if local refining is not increased to meet local demand for petroleum products, especially the premium motor spirit (petrol), removing subsidy on petroleum products will bring more hardship on Nigerians

"Abrupt removal of fuel subsidy will create chaos that may ground the economy. PENGASSAN calls for well-coordinated measures, with timelines to achieve self-sufficiency in local refining as a means of proffering acceptable steps to end fuel subsidy".

Some prominent Nigerians who hitherto kicked against the subsidy removal have now voiced their support for the subsidy removal.

Former governor of Kwara State, Senator Bukola Saraki, disclosed that the country was losing a total of $2 billion to fake fuel subsidy operators, arguing that fuel subsidy management in the country was a very big platform for fraud.

Saraki bemoaned that the alleged fraud in the subsidy scheme has been allowed to continue unabated, calling on president Muhammadu Buhari to completely remove the subsidy and restore normalcy to the petroleum sector.

Former Niger State governor, Dr Babangida Aliyu, also lent support to the removal of the subsidy, saying it would reduce the black market system thus allowing free and regular flow of petroleum products to all parts of the country.

He argued that the subsidy on petroleum products is currently being enjoyed by only a select few who have the necessary connections to the importers.

According to him,"Unless fuel subsidy is removed and we go back to the real market, we will continue to have the type of problem facing the country at the moment. Is it not an irony that we sell crude oil and end up buying refined petroleum from the international market?" he asked.

However, some Nigerians have totally kicked against any attempt to remove the petrol subsidy. Elder statesman and the former governor of Kaduna State, Balarabe Musa, has advised President Buhari to be wary of calls for the removal of the subsidy.

He said that the removal at this time was not desirable as it will affect the goodwill the present government is enjoying from the masses who voted for the new administration.

The elder statesman said if the government wants to do the obvious in tackling fuel scarcity, he said it must have the political muscle to descend on filling stations that fail to dispense at the official price.

He said it was unfortunate that some industrialists are calling for the removal of the subsidy simply for their selfish reason.

The National Association of Nigeria Students, NANS, has also cautioned the federal government against the removal of fuel subsidy, describing the move as one that could be detrimental to the citizens and the country's economy at large.