A former governor of Lagos State, Senator Bola Tinubu, is learning daily that politics in Abuja is not the same as the one in his enclave, Lagos. From Northern Elders’ yellow card, to the red card by the elected senators on the platform of the All Progressives Congress (APC) about two weeks ago, he may be biting off more than he can chew in his quest to play the godfather at the centre.

Talk of a cat with nine lives since our return to civil rule in 1999, the name Tinubu, the Jagaban of Borgu, comes to mind. From being picked as the gubernatorial candidate of the Alliance for Democracy (AD) ahead of favourite Funso Williams, to sending into political archives, the leaders of Afenifere that ensured his ascension, Jagaban has been a lucky man.

He outwitted two deputy governors, Kofo Bucknor-Akerele and Femi Pedro, survived many battles with then president, Olusegun Obasanjo, and was the only governor that survived the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) tsunami that swept through the South-West in 2003.

Out of office, Jagaban is one of the few political leaders, whose political hegemony still survives. Though, there are cracks here and there, he still remains the kingmaker in Lagos and some parts of the South-West.

Allegations of his domineering attitude almost led to the division of the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) in Lagos in 2007, with the state governor Babatunde Fashola, being pushed to join Labour Party by admirers and associates. It took the intervention of who-is-who Lagos to resolve the crisis.

Fashola’s failure in Politics 101; retreating after advancing or looking back like Lot’s wife, became the governor’s greatest undoing. For the better part of his second term, Fashola was a General without soldiers, so it was easy for Jagaban to crush him during the 2014 APC gubernatorial primaries in Lagos alleged, Supo Shasore who was alleged to be Fashola’s candidate, got only 121 votes out of 5,700, while Jagaban’s candidate, Akinwunmi Ambode, won with 3,735 votes, but that is a story for another day.

Jagaban continues to thrive in Lagos and other parts of the South-West Nigeria. In 2007, he also survived the allegation by Abubakar Atiku, the presidential candidate of ACN that ‘he supported and funded the campaign of late President Umaru Yar’adua, against his party’s candidate. His confession that he betrayed his own candidate, Nuhu  Ribadu for Goodluck Jonathan in the 2011 presidential contest, earned him no reprimand. Save for failure in Ondo and Ekiti states, he is comparatively still the number one politician in the South-West.

His quest to replicate what he did in the South-West at the national level was initially met with stiff and near violent resistance. Former Governor Ali Modu Sheriff, threatened a mortal combat with him last year but for the intervention of party leaders like President Muhammad Buhari and Atiku. Sheriff later left to join the PDP, while Jagaban’s candidates John Odigie-Oyegun and Yemi Osinbajo became party chairman and vice president, respectively.

Not contented with these juicy positions, Jagaban wants to become the Lion of Asokoro. There are insinuations that he wishes to install Ahmed Lawan as Senate President, Femi Gbajabiamila, as Speaker of the House of Representatives and Audu Ogbeh as Secretary to the Government of the Federation.

He is also said to have lined up associates like Wale Edun, Senator Olorunnimbe Mamora, Chief Segun Oni, Rotimi Akeredolu and others for ministerial appointments, while opposing the appointment of aides that have fallen out with him like Fashola and Dr Kayode Fayemi.

Piqued by allusions of Jagaban’s alleged excessive demand, some Northern elders began cautioning him against blackmailing Buhari, arguing that the South-West contributed just about 500,000 votes, an insignificant number compared to what Zamfara or Kano states delivered.

While the above argument may sound myopic, considering that Jagaban’s contributions to Buhari’s victory transcended votes, yet the Lion of Bourdillon should note that his claws cannot be as sharp in Abuja as they were in Lagos. If the yellow card from the Northern elders still looks like an illusion of reality to Jagaban, the red card APC Senators gave him at the retreat for its senators is a clear signal that he needs to pull over and start re-strategising.  

The Senators, many of them strange bedfellows, are ready to forget their differences to back a candidate they believe will not be a Jagaban stooge. The anti-Jagaban feeling was so palpable that the 16 Senators loyal to him had to stay away from the venue of the retreat. They later addressed a press conference claiming the party had endorsed Lawan and Akume as the party’s choice for Senate president and deputy Senate president, as if Barnabas Gemade, who addressed the press, is the party chairman or spokesperson.

Thirty-five out of the 59 senators, who attended the retreat, made no secret of their decision to back Bukola Saraki who they believe will not only represent them well, but will not be controlled by an interest group or a godfather outside the Senate.

With the PDP Senate caucus, led by Andy Uba and Godswill Akpabio, also rooting for Saraki, one does not need to gaze into his crystal ball to know that he already has more than the required 55 senators he needs to become the next Senate president.

With defeat staring him in the face, it is not too late for Jagaban to beat a retreat and allow members of the upper and lower House choose their leaders. He should take a cue from Buhari, who travelled to the United Kingdom to avoid meddling in the politics of who becomes the Senate president.

If the Jagaban-backed Lawan defeats Saraki to win the race, it may not be news. But if Saraki defeats Lawan, it will be one defeat too many, as the Lion of Bourdillon’s claws would have been cut off. It will be humiliating.

The embarrassment may mark the beginning of his descent into political oblivion, not just at the national level, but also in the South-West and even Lagos. To be forewarned is to be forearmed; being a cat with nine lives is not a guarantee against accidents or becoming a casualty.

Hamat, a social psychologist, writes from Ibadan.