With the 2015 governorship election just about 40 days away, Remi Adelowo in this report takes a look at the chances of the candidates of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and factors that would likely determine the outcome of the polls in Kwara state

KWARA 2015: Ahmed looks sure bet for second term Kwara State governor, Abdulfatah Ahmed, has one major hurdle to cross in his quest for a second term in office.

Stating that the 2015 governorship election in Kwara State would be a straight contest between Ahmed, the candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the PDP candidate, Senator Simeon Ajibola, is like reiterating the obvious.

Ajibola's emergence as the governorship candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) was as shocking as it was unexpected.

In the run-up to the PDP governorship primaries, the third term senator was not in the reckoning as a major contender for the ticket. Though an experienced political gladiator in the state who cut his tutelage under the revered strongman of Kwara politics, late Dr. Olusola Saraki, only very few people believed he could defeat other formidable aspirants boasting alleged strong backing from high quarters.

This category of aspirants including Prof. Abdulrahman Oba, the Chairman of Federal Character Commission (FCC), former Presidential Adviser, Senator Suleiman Ajadi, wealthy businessman, Jani Ibrahim, Senator Gbemisola Saraki and Mr. Dele Belgore, believed to be the favoured aspirant of Hajia Bola Shagaya, an influential player in the corridors of power.

Days before the primaries held, Belgore was seen as the man to beat, even as many of the aspirants reportedly faulting the process put in place to conduct the election, which they alleged, was skewed to arrive at a pre-determined outcome.

But after much hue and cry, the primaries finally held, with Ajibola beating all comers for the ticket.

Factors that would shape 2015 contest

With the election just about 40 days away, there are indications that factors, including incumbency, religion, party platform, popularity and achievements of the two major contestants would largely determine who emerges victorious on February 21.

How the three senatorial zones may vote

In Kwara South where Ahmed and Ajibola both hail from, it is not unlikely that there could be a split of votes between the two candidates in the area.

Another likely scenario is a slim victory for the PDP candidate due to religious factor as many people in the area are predominantly Christians.

Another school of thought is, however, of the belief that the incumbent governor will win the zone with a large margin due to the alleged poor performance of Ajibola, whose aspiration for a third term in the Senate was allegedly opposed by many political stakeholders in the zone until the intervention of the governor and the leader of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in the state, Senator Bukola Saraki.

In Kwara Central and Kwara North, both dominated by Muslims, Ahmed appears the favourite to win the two zones.

The Central zone, which constitutes about 52 percent of the state's voting strength, would very likely pitch its tent with the APC candidate in solidarity with Saraki, (an Ilorin indigene), who has effectively taken over his late father's political empire.

Added to this is the influence of the traditional institution in the zone, which from historical references, had always queued behind the Saraki political dynasty in the battle for the soul of the politics of the state.

Sources also posit that the 2015 election scenario in Kwara North would follow the voting pattern in the Central zone.

Would this election prognosis remain unchanged by the time the election gets under way on February 21? Time would tell.