The political clock is fast ticking towards 2015 general elections. All the gladiators are patiently waiting for the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to blow its whistle for the rat race that is already gathering momentum.

The State of Harmony, Kwara, is not an exception as no fewer than 15 aspirants are jostling for the governorship seat in the state, including political jesters. The list includes the chairman of the Federal Character Commission (FEC) and erstwhile Vice Chancellor, University of Ilorin, Prof. Shuaib Oba Abdulraheem, Special Adviser to President Goodluck Jonathan of National Assembly Matters, Senator Suleiman Makanjuola Ajadi and the senator representing Kwara south in the upper legislative chambers, Simeon Sule Ajibola.

Others are 2011 governorship candidate of the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) in the state, Mohammed Dele Belgore (SAN) his cousin and former commissioner for Housing in the State, Kale Belgore, former Minister of Sports, Alhaji Isa Bio Ibrahim, erstwhile State commissioner for Information and former National President of National Youth Council of Nigeria (NYCN), Mr. Ben Duntoye, a delegate to the National Conference and former presidential flag bearer of National Transforamtion Party (NTP), Deacon John Dara, an oil magnate, Mr. Sunday Babalola and an Offa born industrialist and former Managing Director of the Nigerian Airways, Alhaji Jani Ibrahim.

The rest are the 2011 gubernatorial flag bearer of the Allied Congress Party of Nigeria (ACPN) and Bukola Saraki’s sister, Senator Gbemisola Saraki, former governorship candidate of the defunct Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) in the 2011 election in the state, Alhaji Abdulrahman Abdulrazaq and the scion of late Rear Admiral Mohammed Lawal, Akeem all from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

From the APC, the cloud is not yet clear for the emergence of aspirants to the exalted office in the state. Feelers from the party, however, indicate that the incumbent governor, Alhaji Abdulfatah Ahmed is still interested in continuing his job beyond 2015 at the Government House, situate at Ahmadu Bello Way, Ilorin.

His co-travelers within the same APC, who are believed to be eyeing his position, include the immediate past Minister for Sports, Mallam Bolaji Abdullahi and the Speaker, Barr. Rasak Atunwa.

One thing that is however, clear and obvious in the 47 year old State is that winning next year polls may not be business as usual for the ruling APC as the opposition party is fighting tooth and nails to sack the ruling party from the state House. Significantly too, whoever emerges as the flag bearers of the two dominant parties in the State will determines the eventual winner next year polls.

Interestingly, the PDP parades the highest numbers of gubernatorial aspirants in a build up to 2015 election in the state. It is discernible to political observers that many of these aspirants can best be described as ‘political jesters’, who are either flying the governorship kite to seek relevance or playing the spoilers’ role.

Those who belong to the first category will sooner than later settle for compromises with serious contenders to the number position in the State. The second school of thought is those who are hell bent in weaken the chances of governorship hopefuls.

However, the x-ray of each PDP aspirants will suffice. For FCC boss, the dream of getting his party’s ticket may be a mirage considering his ‘many sins’ when he held sway at the Better By Far institution, the University of Ilorin. The spirits of “Unilorin 44” dead or alive may still be hunting Talban of Ilorin and indeed may be his albatross as many of the victims have not forgiven him for the ‘illegal sack’ before their reinstatement eight years after vide the Supreme Court’s verdict.

Nevertheless, the fixing of many youths from his immediate constituency of Ilorin West local government nay Emirate could work magic for him at the PDP primaries. This, coupled with the fact that he is in a familiar terrain having indicated interest in 2011 will be a positive factor towards his emergence.

Senator Gbemisola Saraki and Belgore are hurdles, which he must cross to get the party ticket. Whether he will pierce through these brick walls or not will depend largely on his political sagacity to woo them to his side during primary. He has been at logger-heads with Gbemisola over who controls the soul of PDP in Ilorin West council area since the party congress April this year. The logjam hitherto, is far from being resolved.

For Belgore, he is an aspirant to beat considering his performance at the last exercise in 2011. He came second in the governorship polls. He went to the election petition tribunal and eventually lost to the incumbent State chief executive. The learned silk is reportedly oiling his hitherto political machinery towards picking his party’s ticket when the whistle is blown for primary election.

Political analysts, however, pointed out that the constitution of his party may work against his political ambition giving that he is a new entrant into the party.  Section 50 (9) of the PDP constitution provides that, “There shall be a minimum of two year membership span for a member to be eligible to stand for election into any public office, unless the appropriate executive committee gives a waiver or rules to the contrary”.

Watchers of political events in the state argued that he was not ripe for any elective office in the PDP since he is less than two years in the party. Under the party constitution, new members and returnees are not qualified to contest elective positions until after two years except they get a waiver. But removing this clog on his way, Belgore remains an aspirant to beat.

In the case of the Lubcon Technical Adviser and former Managing Director, Nigerian Airways, Engr. Jani Ibrahim, is believed to be currying the favour of a chieftain of the party and an Abuja business mogul, Hajia Muina Bola Sagaya. Ibrahim political god mother is also said to be closer to the presidency to the extent that she was instrumental to the appointment of the Minister for National Planning, Dr. Sulieman Olarewaju.

This coupled with his heavy financial muscles places him on a better pedestal to clinch the PDP ticket. It can however, not be ascertained whether he will be able to weather the storm of political murky waters in the State giving that he is a green horn in the politics of the State.

The Special Adviser to President Goodluck Jonathan on National Assembly Matters, Senator Suleiman Makanjuola Ajadi is another aspirant to watch. He is a grassroots politician with a wealth of experience that relies on his political structure across the State. As the 2007 governorship flag bearer of the defunct Action Congress (AC) in the State, he is in a familiar terrain as all intrigues that will come to play in the PDP will not be new to him.

Political pundits described him as a gubernatorial ‘veteran’ in that he was also a governorship aspirant under the PDP in 2011 before he stepped down for his kinsman, Governor Abdulfatah Ahmed. Finance may not be his problem as he has been ‘rehabilitated’ with his current appointment through his former colleague in the senate and Secretary to the Federal Government (SFG), Senator Pius Anyim. Nevertheless, his albatross may be sharing the same immediate constituency with the incumbent Governor.

The only female aspirant in the governorship contest, Gbemisola Saraki may need divine intervention to get acceptability from her immediate constituency of Ilorin Emirate. This reason for this may not be far-fetch. It is a religious taboo for a female to lead politically in Islamic dominated Emirate which may have accounted for her dismal performance at the 2011 gubernatorial polls under the banner of ACPN in the State, his father’s influence notwithstanding.

It would be recalled there was a major disagreement within Saraki dynasty over choice of Bukola’s successor in a build up to the last general elections. While the late Waziri preferred his beloved daughter, the scion of Saraki pitched his tent with the incumbent governor.  Although, money may not constitute any problem, but her alleged romance with her blood brother and national leader of APC, Bukola Saraki may work against her political ambition.

Watchers of political events in the State of Harmony believed that Saraki’s siblings are only playing political chess game with the people aimed at ensuring that head or tail, the four decades old dynasty still continues to rule the state through either of the two dominant parties in the state.  For instance, Gbemi is said to be the brain behind the unresolved crisis in the Ilorin West local government PDP despite the endorsement of the Alhaji Yusuf Amuda Olugbon-led executives by the national headquarters of the party. Apparently, seeing the hand writing on the wall Gbemisola, recently, called for two days prayer and fasting among her supporters with a view to realising her life dream.

Deacon John Dara is not a neophyte in Kwara politics. He contested gubernatorial primaries with Bukola Saraki in 2003, albeit lost to him in a controversial manner. The former Special Assistant to the erstwhile Minister of Defence, Gen. Thophilus Danjuma (Rtd), also contested the presidential polls in 2011under the platform of the National Transformation Party (NTP). It is however, doubtful if his political structure is still on ground in the State. Besides, he may not get the financial wherewithal to match Naira for Naira with his co-travelers in the governorship race. As a chieftain of PDP in the State, he needs to work harder to clinch his party’s ticket.

Ben Duntoye has also indicated interest in the plum seat. The erstwhile commissioner for Information and Communications in the State, came to political limelight in the year 2000 during the administration of late Rear Admiral Mohammed Lawal (Rtd). With the assistance of that administration, he became the National President of the National Youth Council of Nigeria (NYCN) and was later appointed to Bukola’s cabinet during the ex-governor second term allegedly to checkmating the overbearing influence of his kinsman in government then.

The youthful politician was a delegate at the recent concluded National Conference. The Oro born Duntoye may not get enough finance to prosecute his governor ambition. Analysts do not only described him as ‘unserious contender’ but see him as a ‘political jester’ who will eventually step down for any serious aspirant that is ready to ‘settle’ his bill.

Sunday Babalola may be riding in the same boat with Duntoye. The Omu-Aran born politician neither has structure nor the means to face his colleagues Naira for Naira at the PDP primaries. Political pundits opined that he is only seeking relevance towards post 2015 polls.

Another aspirant to watch is the scion of Lawal dynasty, Akeem. He may be relying on his late father’s legacies and political structure to get the PDP ticket. He is a new breed politician who wants to complete his father’s projects of people oriented programmes. It was a credit to Lawal’s administration for empowering virtually every Kwarans through the patronage of indigenous contractors and by extension, an average people at the grassroots. Money may not be a major challenge. Nevertheless, he needs to carry along his father’s acolytes and political associates in order to coast to victory.

The former Minister for Sports, Alhaji Isa Bio Ibrahim is eyeing the PDP ticket having failed in his bid in 2011. His major challenge in clinching the ticket may include is lack of political structure in the State and financial handicap. He was said to have invested heavily in his 2011 governorship contest which he lost to the incumbent governor. However, he may pitch his tent with another aspirant that is ready to compensate him eventually.

The incumbent senator and third termer representing Kwara south in the National Assembly, Simeon Ajibola has joined the race for the exalted governorship position. He has been gathering his political arsenal aimed at picking the PDP ticket. Although, money may not be his major problem, analysts, however, pointed out that it may be herculean task for him to get his party’s ticket. His kinsmen from his immediate constituency of south may not support his aspiration judging by what his constituents described as ‘non performance’ since his years in the upper legislative chambers as well as the roles he played during the party State congress in April. This school of thought alleged that he did not support the emergence of Akogun Iyiola Oyedepo as the State chairman.

More importantly, the battle for the PDP governorship ticket would be for the highest bidder among the crop of political heavyweights that has so far signified interests in the much touted ticket for onward ride to the State House.

The APC is also leaving no stone unturned, in its bid to return to Government House after the 2015 general elections. This development made it pertinent for the party to embrace the principle of internal democracy in picking its flag bearers for all elective positions.

Thus, the choice of APC governorship candidate will definitely be a complete departure from a consensus formula which was popularized by the Saraki dynasty. The party’s leadership recently reiterated that there would be no automatic ticket for any political aspirants of the party. This policy statement was, however, believed by political observers in the State to be targeted at the incumbent governor.

By the last count, only two aspirants from the APC are likely to lock horns at governorship primary of the party. They are the incumbent Governor, Abdulfatah Ahmed and the immediate past Minister for Sports, Mallam Bolaji Abdullahi. The rumoured governorship ambition of the Speaker, State House Hose of Assembly cannot be confirmed at press time. The likelihood of any aspirant emerging from Kwara north is also very remote. None of the duo has publicly declares their intentions to run probably because of the usual practice in Saraki dynasty that nobody indicates interest in any elective positions until the ‘Leader’ gives his nod.

It is therefore, not surprising that without prompting, various groups and associations from nooks and crannies of the State are consistently urging the governor to seek a second term of office. The campaign posters of Ahmed for second term bid have littered the length and breathe of the State capital which was suspected to have been anchored his Kwara south kinsmen. It is only in Kwara central that a group also called on Abdullahi to declare governorship ambition.

If the activities of the campaigners for the two aspirants are anything to go by, then, the insinuation may not have been far from the truth.

Nevertheless, the incumbent governor stands a better chance than his rival. The factors likely to work in Ahmed’s favor include his modest achievements in all ramifications as well as his undiluted loyalty to the ‘Leader’ as Bukola is fondly called by his admirers and supporters. Therefore, Ahmed is likely to be given second term ticket by his god father as a reward for his total commitments.

The emergence of Abdullahi in the gubernatorial race may not be unconnected with some people of Kwara central said to be interested in the governorship position of the State despite the fact that, the senatorial district had occupied the position for unbroken twelve years. But whether he can match Ahmed with financial resources if the two of them go for party primary is a riddle begging for answer as the political events unfold in the State of Harmony.

By and large, the choice of APC flag bearer for the governorship poll in the State rests squarely on the political ‘Leader’ as well as other stakeholders of the party in line with the new political exigencies in the state.

No doubt, the outcome of next year elections in the state will be a litmus test for the survival of Saraki dynasty beyond 2015 just as it will be a barometer to gauge the opposition’s attempt to break the jinx in the 47 year old State after the demise of the strong man of Kwara politics, Dr. Abubakar Olusola Saraki.