While questions are still being asked why two of the G7 governors of the new Peoples Democratic Party (nPDP) are surprisingly yet to migrate to the All Progressives Congress (APC), the movement of the other five into the main opposition party looks set to trigger a tectonic shift in Nigerian politics. The G5, comprising the governors of Kano, Adamawa, Kwara, Rivers and Sokoto States, have burnt their bridges and thrown in their lot with the 11 APC governors to form a formidable political organisation capable of taking on the increasingly weakened PDP behemoth. More governors are expected to join them, not the least the two reluctant governors of Niger and Jigawa States. If that should happen, Nigerian politics will experience the equivalent of a lockdown in which the ruling party would be paralysed and in danger of becoming the opposition party.

The journey to this historic and exciting, if not revolutionary, shift was hard and long, complete with unending uncertainties. Major disagreements within the PDP, much of it consequent upon the coerced (some more sympathetic officials say coaxed) election of Bamanga Tukur as party chairman had triggered a most unsettling relationship between governors long used to enjoying unchallenged dominance in their states and Alhaji Tukur whose leadership style is meddlesome, grating, domineering and irreverent. Many PDP governors never liked Alhaji Tukur's style, but it was only the G7 that embarked on open rebellion. And with the debacle in the Nigeria Governors' Forum (NGF), what appeared like a covert war of attrition began to metamorphose into a clearly definable war in which the combatants were recognisable.

President Goodluck Jonathan, who at first maintained impassive neutrality, believing he could reconcile the two camps, soon began to vacillate between studious detachment one day and open and undiluted animosity the next day. While Alhaji Tukur sustained his detestation of the rebellious governors, the president hesitated between dialogue and rebuff. But with the impasse in Rivers, in which Governor Rotimi Amaechi felt impelled to openly stand up to the president, it was all but clear that sooner rather than later, Nigerian politics would witness a major shift or realignment. The leaders of the APC themselves worked actively to encourage the dissonance within the ruling party, and hoped the disagreements would worsen until they became irreconcilable. Coupled with the festering sore in Adamawa, a sore engendered by certain PDP factions favourable to or promoted by the Alhaji Tukur/Jibril Aminu forces, the die seemed cast.

As if to stoke up the powder keg, the presidency turned its hostile attention to Kwara State and began what some interpreted as a systematic subversion of the person and influence of Bukola Saraki, the state's former governor. Worse, Governor Aliyu Wammako's Sokoto, whether based on hegemonic principles or simple political considerations, never quite cottoned on to Dr Jonathan's politics. Instead the state began to oppose him even before he was elected candidate of the PDP and later president. For the unexpectedly reluctant Governors Babangida Aliyu of Niger and Sule Lamido of Jigawa, it is too early to say whether the shifting quicksand of politics would not at a later date make them change their minds. They may, on the other hand, hope to be courted by the desperate Jonathan forces, and be content to wring concessions from the presidency.

What is much clearer is that the battle between Nigeria's main political forces is about to be joined. The easiest part of course is merging of individuals and political interests. The hardest part is sustaining the merger in the face of a scathing and vengeful presidency whose style, disposition and tactics are both Neanderthal and sanguinary. Dr Jonathan has about him men and women whose unscrupulousness is fast becoming legendary. They are not clean or principled fighters. They do not mind biting the ears of an opponent, hitting him in the groin, or delivering all sorts of illegal and spiteful blows. Such tactics often work marvellously in the short run, and against an opponent without stamina, it could prove lethal. Famous for its awkwardness in negotiations and compromises, the Jonathan camp will sense danger in the coming together of the G5 plus APC camp and go for broke. Whether he will succeed in obliterating or weakening the new group will depend on how clever the enlarged opposition is and how ready it is for a protracted and bloody battle.

If the enlarged opposition has not come too soon, and they prove agile in battle, holding forts and defending every inch of ground, it is almost guaranteed that their ranks would swell, with or without Niger and Jigawa. If the movement of the G5 governors is accompanied by wholesale movement of their local and national legislators, the Jonathan government, which has so far been clumsy in relating with the legislature, will find it even harder to govern. And much more than the new APC, which will doubtless gain a lot, the country will be the bigger gainer because the realignment of forces would probably lead to more robust and better lawmaking than it would promote legislative or bureaucratic paralysis.

However, with the new enlargement of the opposition, any pretence of ideological purity must be discarded by the APC. Even in the days of the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), the party had had its progressivism questioned by purists. The ideological dilution became more pronounced when clearly conservative parties merged with the ACN to form the APC. Now, with the addition of five more parties, the APC has unquestionably become an amalgam of political parties whose immediate priority is to take power in 2015, and later begin the slow process of reconstructing and remaking the deformed polity. The synthesization of its ideology will follow, if necessary, and when appropriate. Welcome, the Age of Realpolitik.

What is certain to make news in the coming days will be the desperate attempt by the Jonathan presidency to undermine the legality of the migration of the five governors to the APC. The PDP will not fight a clean war. More, they will take the battle to the five states and attempt to foment rebellion against the governors, and then infiltrate party ranks in each state by harassing and intimidating the weak among them. It is likely the APC has anticipated the shape of the coming war and may possess one or two jokers. If the war is fought lawfully, there is no way the country will not be better off, for Nigeria is overdue for a revolutionary makeover, whether by an opportunistic amalgam or a systematically expanded opposition. Anything but the status quo in 2015 should give the country a breather and raise hopes of a better tomorrow.