Cashing in on the crisis rocking the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), chieftains of All Progressive Congress (APC) are leaving no stone unturned in   wooing the G7 governors of the PDP into their fold. STANLEY NKWOCHA analysis the prospects or not for the G7 governors in the APC if they leave ahead 2015.

The crisis rocking the leadership of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) was long foretold. The resistance of the PDP governors towards Alhaji Bamanga Tukur’s candidacy as chairman of the ruling PDP when it became clear that he was the choice of the Presidency at the party’s national convention in March 2012 said it all .

From his home state of Adamawa to his North East zone, it was a coup of rejection all the way, no thanks to the vehemence with which his state governor, Murtala Nyako, pursued his now fruitless ‘operation stop Bamanga’.  At the end of the intense power play, it took a horse trading which saw the governors push forth one of theirs, former governor of Osun State, Prince Olagunsoye Oyinlola as the national secretary, while President Goodluck Jonathan had his way in enthroning his now Man Friday - Bamanga Tukur, for truce to be reached.

Needless to say that the fight between Oyinlola and Tukur started from day one as the duo got engulfed in muscles flexing that finally saw Oyinlola got tossed out of the Wadata Plaza national secretariat of the PDP. All thanks to a court decision which declared the former Osun governor as an impostor in the PDP’s NWC.

The  crisis continued in torrents as the governors frowned at Oyinlola’s ouster. Meanwhile, Governors Murtala Nyako (Adamawa), Rotimi Amaechi (Rivers), Aliyu Wamakko (Sokoto), Sule Lamido (Jigawa) and  Musa Kwankwaso (Kano) had all taken turns to engage Tukur and the party in various war of words. But perhaps, issues came to a head after the party’s forced special convention, wherein a ‘New PDP’ claimed emergence and not surprisingly had the aforementioned governors as its key men.

But that was not to be all as no sooner did the ‘New PDP’ emerge, that  the G7, comprising of  Governors Wamakko, Amaechi, Nyako, Lamido, Kwankwaso, Aliyu and Ahmed, sprang forth. And since then, the polity has known no political peace as while the ‘New PDP’ fires from a side, the G7 compliments firing from the other, with the APC unmindful that the crisis is an internal party matter, kept fueling the crisis intermittently. APC’s mission? Operation get G7 governors and others.

As at the last count, only Aliyu remained the G7 governor of the PDP yet to be visited by APC chieftains in the bid to get them dump the PDP for the APC. So hard has been the APC’s ambush in this regard  that it has had the PDP asking it to leave its governors alone.

The APC which today boasts of 11 governors wants to bank in the available 7 in the PDP and bring its total to 18 thereby reducing the PDP governors to 16 from 23, with APGA and Labour Party holding onto Anambra and Ondo as at today. Clearly if this permutation plays out, it would make the PDP play the minority party role in the 2015 elections and put the party on the edge.

But will the G7 governors take this leap? Is it the best of options for them as at today? Will their political fortunes be enhanced if they toss the PDP to the wind and embrace the APC? Is this risk worth taking or would it backfire?

Sule Lamido (Jigawa)

Easily one the greatest assets in the North that the PDP has today.  For Governor Sule Lamido, Jigawa State is a political turf that he has long captured and knows like the back of his palm. Sticking out his neck in 2010 to vouch support for a Jonathan presidency when sectional and religious divide had set in against the backdrop that Jonathan was ‘usurping’ the North’s turn, he showed the hero in him when he delivered the state, hook, line and sinker to the PDP in both the governorship and presidential elections in 2011.

Known for his knack in grassroots mobilisation, Gov Lamido is one governor that the PDP would be on its knees not to let go. His command of respect amongst Northern politicians and traditional rulers in the North, aside his known contacts across the country is an asset that no party can easily wish away.

Lamido, caught in the web of 2015 presidency as agitations for him to contest continue, must have his thinking cap on for most parts of the day. If he is interested in the presidency, it would be difficult for him to clinch the ticket of the PDP with President Jonathan obviously contesting and with Tukur facilitating the easy road for him. Lamido’s headache then would be whether the APC would be the perfect platform for him to run. But the complex interests in the APC makes it too deep a risk for him to take. However, in the event that he finally decides not to contest for the presidency and opts to move over with his supporters to the APC, the hard fact remains that Lamido will deliver the state to the APC whether in the presidential or governorship elections.

Sources say it is in recognition of this that the PDP has not tampered with it’s structure, largely under Lamido’s control, in the State. With the deep nexus between him and the Jigawa electorate, coupled with his ability to mobilise and galvanise support, it is believed that whichever party Lamido identifies with at the end of the day will seal up the state.

Rotimi Amaechi (Rivers)

To posit that Rotimi Amaechi of Rivers State is the most troubled of all the G7 governors is to hit the nail to the head. Nearly all the structures needed to aid a governor in his political quest in a state has been pulled off him.

The recent court judgment which upheld the chairmanship of Chief Obuah Amaechi Felix as the duly recognised chairman of Rivers State PDP, tossing further off the chances of Governor Amaechi to reclaim the party structure’s control through Chief Godspower Ake - removed chairman and Amaechi’s ally, has further tightened the noose on the Rivers governor.

This is even as the state’s commissioner of police, whose actions have become questionable in the state having been accused at several fora of acting out the script of the presidency, has made governance difficult for the incumbent governor.

Amaechi’s perceived fight with President Jonathan has taken a long personal tone with the supervising minister for education, Nyesome Wike, riding into the squabble and delving political blows to Amaechi with the assumed support of the Presidency and the Police.

Said to be interested in the governorship of Rivers State come 2015, Wike, already known to have structures spread across the state seems set for the battle ahead, especially with the Chief Obuah Felix state Exco sympathetic to his cause.

Caught in a fix, it is thought that Amaechi would have no option than to jump boat and see if he can remedy himself politically with the APC, even as he has continued to speak from both sides of the mouth as regards his political ambition come 2015. But will the APC be the safest choice?

Going against Amaechi if he does not sort out things  and regain control of the PDP in his state, is that most political bigwigs in the state are all in the PDP, including his benefactor - Dr Peter Odili, who has not had it rosy since Amaechi’s ascension as governor. The people of Rivers State are already neck deep at home with the PDP. The influence of the PDP in the deep oil rich regions is so massive that it will take a miracle for the APC to make any in-roads in the state come 2015. Therefore, it may be considered safe to assert that Amaechi is caught between the devil and the deep blue sea. The APC with Amaechi in Rivers will be difficult to fly. It is  speculated that he might end up trading a deal with the PDP to get a seat for the Senate ahead 2015.

Gov Nyako (Adamawa)

In Adamawa State, it is just a matter of time before Governor Murtala Nyako finally announces his decamping. As things stand now, Nyako is already legs into the APC, but for certain clash of interests with already known members of the APC who are opposing his entry and plot to hijack the the APC structure in the state, Nyako’s formal entry into the APC would have been long concluded as his disdain for the PDP as at today is second to none.

It is the speculation for many that Adamawa State would provide the perfect spectacle for a showdown in 2015 as the political fever in the state will be pitch high. The  stage would get set for the ‘grand battle’ between Nyako and Tukur in what is expected to be the greatest political battle in Adamawa State.

Unlike in Jigawa, where the Lamido is given a straight card of victory, in Nyako’s Adamawa, the ball game would be tight. While the electorate on the one hand would have a major say, the states political gladiators who are numerous and versatile, will have a major say also. One thing that may aid Tukur is the federal might he would be coming into the battle with. But for Nyako, whose weakness is the disenchantment of major politicians with his administration, how well he embarks on realigning and appeasing these stakeholders may hold the key to his electoral fortune even as all eyes are on both he and Tukur to see who they push for the governorship elections in Adamawa eventually as their believed children’s ambitions is an added reason  to the crisis the PDP in Adamawa is in.

Gov Fatai Ahmed (Kwara)

If Governor Ahmed decides to finally move over to the APC in agreement with his godfather and new leader of Kwara politics, Senator Bukola Saraki, it would be res judicata for the PDP.

The Sarakis’ hold onto the politics of power in Kwara State is one that permeates  all across the state. With the death of the elder Saraki and the eventual ascension to the throne by Senator Saraki, there seems to have been a transfer of power to a younger generation even with no known ideology. This got manifested when the younger Saraki moved against his father’s wish of enthroning his younger sister, Senator Gbemi Saraki in succeeding him. There is no gainsaying that  the Sarakis  have gotten used  to dominating the  state over the years with little or no voice dissent in the affairs of the state, especially politically.

Smart looking Governor Fatai seems to understand this dynamics perfectly well and has effectively managed his relationship with his erstwhile boss and godfather - Senator Saraki,  and thus holding firmly to power in the state. With his union with Senator Saraki, it would be difficult to see the PDP make hay if Fatai moves to the APC. And just as Kwara got delivered to the PDP from the APP in 2003, so will Kwara be easily handed over to the APC. For Governor Fatai, he is set to go and all sweet sailing it shall be for him especially since he will be re-contesting come 2015.

Gov Kwankwaso (Kano)

Yet another state that will be too close to call is Kano, where it’s electorate other than politicians are the ones who determine the political swing of the state in any election. Individuals and not parties seem to excite the Kano people and not political parties, especially close knit ones.

All things being equal Governor Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso will move over to the APC. As a matter of fact, he is just bidding time to relocate. The obvious open hijack of the party structure from the Tukur led national leadership, which sent in a care taker committee led by Hassan Kafayos and backed by an arch rival of Kwankwaso, Ambassador Aminu Wali, to conduct fresh elections at the detriment of the Gov Kwankwaso backed Adamu Aliyu Sumaila committee whose tenure has expired, has all but sent the warning signal to Kwankwaso who now knows that the chess game is on.

For Kwankwaso to make a headway in Kano, however, he has to mend fences with some political foes, especially the wing led by former Governor Ibrahim Shekarau, a founding member of the APC who has been loyal to the party. Analysts opine that with the deep seeded animosity between the duo, and with the sudden swell up in the returnee wing of the PDP, it may be a hard nut to crack for Kwankwaso who definitely would like to enthrone a successor, even as it is said that he has his eyes in the Senate come 2015.

However, whether the PDP or APC win emerge victorious at the end of the day will be largely determined by the very unpredictable Kano electorate. It would then take the extra sense for Kwankwaso to soar. However, realienation going on at the moment in Kano suggests that the PDP would not allow Kano to be easily hijacked by the APC.

Gov Wamakko (Sokoto)

The people of Sokoto State towed along with Wamakko after he emerged the PDP’s candidate in the merger between the ANPP and the PDP in 2007. Since then, the opposition has remained largely quiet in the state, allowing the PDP through Wamakko to take the shine.

As at today, with deepened structures and massive political support across the state, one governor that will definitely move to the APC is Wamakko. His actions in recent time, coupled with his unforgiving remarks as it concerns Bamanga Tukur led leadership of the party, and also his deep romance with APC chieftains suggests that it is a straight party for the governor and his men when they decide to contest. For Wamakko, it will be a cruise with the APC in 2015.

Governor Aliyu (Niger)

Chief Servant Babangida Aliyu may not be in a tight situation like Rotimi Amaechi, however, his blurred aspiration in 2015, very loquacious nature and uncertain political permutations are pitching him against himself.

Forced to  come out to again identify with the G7 governors and the new PDP when he obviously attempted to ‘slow down’ his union with the groups, Aliyu is clearly playing some game of wits and caution. Unlike Wamakko and Lamido whom you can easily put your cash on, Aliyu is not to be cashed on.

This is so because the Niger governor will be the last to leave the PDP. With reports suggesting that former governor, Abdulkadir Kure and PDP BoT Chieftain, Prof Jerry Gana, have been positioned to take over  the party’s state structure and machinery if he leaves the party, there are speculations that while not minding to move over to the APC, the chief servant would  not wish to see politicians such as Gana and Kure take over the PDP machinery from him for fear of the unknown. For now, the state’s PDP machinery is still under the governors control, even as it is said that some PDP chieftains in the state have began mobilising in preparation for Aliyu’s departure.

Whether or not  he may have his interest in 2015 is not the issue for Babangida Aliyu. Sources say the governor is more concerned with enthroning a successor as allowing political opponents to ‘elect’ his successor would be suicidal.  An insider told LEADERSHIP FRIDAY that the last decision to be taken by the chief servant would be to leave the PDP, saying he is aware that he may just shoot himself on the foot, more so that he cannot vouch for the Niger State electorate, especially in the governorship election.

Already, his interest to come to the Senate in 2015 has pitched him against Senator Awaisu Kuta - considered a much more grass-rooted politician and one of those anxiously waiting for the governor to make what is being termed by some as a might - be costly move.

For now, unlike Nyako, Fatai, Kwankwaso and Wamakko  who can be said with certainty will leave the PDP, it would be risky to bet that Lamido, Aliyu and Amaechi, will tow same line as uncertainty  best describes their position as at today.