One of the most difficult conversations to have these days is around our local government councils and grassroots development. This is made more complicated by the split judgment of the Supreme Court that says federal allocations should now go straight to the individual accounts of the 774 councils. The judgment wasn't unanimous, just as Nigerians, political or apolitical, are split on the sustainability of the verdict. But Supreme Court judgments are final until the court reverses itself in the future.

Many people want the local councils to be independent of the state governments. They believe that states have exerted too much influence on the councils to the detriment of grassroots development. In the case of Kwara, it is argued that each council must determine how it uses its funds and that the concept of pooling resources together to pay essential workers like teachers and health workers, a child of necessity, has to stop. They dub the arrangement robbing Peter to pay Paul.

A few others disagree, saying such arguments are oblivious of the fact that the same allocation comes from Nigeria pooling resources together to fund governmental responsibilities across the country. No side is wrong, and the issues are not as simple as many may assume. That is not the essence of this intervention.

My intention here is to humbly refocus the conversations since the judgment of the Supreme Court, especially as a few states count days to local government elections. Kwara holds its own on September 21, barring any exigencies that alter human plans.

A few things should be noted ahead of these elections — and into the future.

Many people believe that the Supreme Court judgment has suddenly freed up resources for local governments across Nigeria, and that new council officials have no excuses not to deliver good roads, culverts, excellent basic healthcare services and education, among other things on their schedule.

Framing the issue this way is a recipe for heartbreak. Many local governments actually live on a begging bowl, given the disparity between their incomes and their bills. Those who don't live on the begging bowl barely have anything substantial to meet the expectations being created.

A few opposition candidates and their sympathisers have spoken about how local councils have so much money but are held down by the state government. The contrary is factually true. Except they become intentionally creative, disciplined and shed excessive weight, no local council in Kwara, for instance, is strong enough today to construct a Trunk-C road, PHC, or a primary school. This is why states are the ones doing this most of the time to meet public expectations. I am sure of the Kwara situation between 2019 and now.

The most viable Kwara council areas in terms of their allocation and comparably low expenditure are Kaiama, Baruten, Isin, Patigi, and Offa. But let us see their recurrent expenses (salary and overheads) against their total earnings across three years, including 2023 when allocation had risen after the fuel subsidy was removed. In 2021, Kaiama spent 69% of its total earnings (N2,279,338,216.84) on recurrent alone; Baruten 76% (of N2,814,384,679.06); Isin 76% (of N1,510,999,337.96); Patigi 70% (of N1,952,029,596.20); and Offa 92% (of N1,745,461,471.25). In 2022, recurrent expenditure gulped 73% of all earnings in Kaiama (N3,011,939,021.38); 79% (of N3,721,109,448.71) in Baruten; 89% (of N1,981,946,105.40) in Isin; 79% (of N2,521,317,687.75) in Patigi; and 101% (of N2,295,893,725.11) in Offa — meaning 1% of its spendings on recurrents was in fact a support from elsewhere. Expenditure rose in 2022 because of promotions and other welfare packages for workers.

For 2023, six months of which saw significant rise in allocation with corresponding effects on what is available to the councils, this was what happened across these 'viable LGAs': Kaiama spent 60% of its (N4,099,202,161.01) earnings on recurrent; Baruten committed 66% (of N5,061,809,309.20); Isin spent 72% (of N2,774,919,527.82); Patigi expended 65% (of N3,530,849,075.77); and Offa 83% (of N3,155,488,929.06). How viable are they?

What the above says is that our local councils are spending more than two-thirds of everything that they have on salaries and running costs, while a pittance is left for development. The argument of one council supporting the other is really of no moment here.

A gentleman recently wrote about how Ilorin East was earning so much and could have done so well without state government interfering. That is a pie-in-the-sky argument. Ilorin East, like a few other local councils, depends on others to meet its own basic obligations. At its best in 2023, Ilorin East spent 107% of its total earnings (N3,938,869,814.44) on paying salaries and overheads — meaning it was in negative and 7% of what it needed to meet its obligations came from somewhere else. Imagine how much help it needed in 2021 or 2022: -11% and -28% respectively.

Between 2019 and now, the local councils have not hired workers except teachers and health workers, which are a core necessity. The weight could have been heavier had the previous culture of indiscriminate hiring continued.

This crisis dated back decades. It is partly a blowback from the false belief that government has unlimited resources and can hire everyone to its payroll, even if such persons have no tangible services to render to the public. But this is no time to trade blame. It is the time to face the reality, be collectively responsible, and retool things. Local government autonomy is not bad. Perhaps it will help everyone to cut their coats according to their sizes and trigger big ideas that may help to develop the grassroots.

I am excited at the rise in the political temperature across the state as September 21 approaches. But candidates (especially for chairmanship) should go beyond telling the electorate what they will do. Anyone can promise to build roads or improve access to water and cleaner environments. These require funding. They should tell us how they will deliver on their promises. If a local council spent 70, 80, or 107% of its total revenues on just paying salaries and other overheads in 2023 at N30,000 minimum wage, there is clearly a problem. A new minimum wage or N70,000 is here, and workers look forward to earning it as a matter of economic reality. Now, picture the finances of the local councils after implementing the new wage.

Tough decisions have to be made to return the councils back to solvency. Will they hire more hands to take more people from the labour market, or will they downsize to cut cost? What is the likely trade-off for any of these policy choices, which is certain to trigger different responses? How do they mitigate the social consequences of any of their decisions? This is the Leviathan that candidates need to know and talk about on the campaign train.

Beyond any other argument, what will the candidates do to free up resources or create a bigger pie? If any candidate says they want to purchase a tractor for each ward to boost food security, for instance, they should explain where the money will come from. This is good for all, the candidates or the electorate. The challenges are not insurmountable, but there are no quick fixes or magic.

?? Mr. Ajakaye is the Chief Press Secretary to the Kwara State Governor