The battle for the governorship ticket of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in Kwara State promises to be laced with intrigues as six heavyweight politicians slug it out to be the standardbearer of the opposition party. BIODUN OYELEYE reports

Ahead of the 2015 elections, the governorship battle in Kwara State will be fought between the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the All Progressives Congress (APC). In Kwara State, the field is full of interested contestants, particularly within the fold of the PDP which suddenly found itself playing the role of an opposition following the defection of its leader in the state, Senator Bukola Saraki.

When the state chairman of the PDP, Akogun Iyiola Oyedepo, addressed members of the party’s national integration committee, he said the defection left PDP bare such that a party that was controlling the state suddenly had a mere N18,000 in its balance sheet.

But the defection has also given more participants in the party the opportunity to test their potential in politicking. As such, more than the rival APC in the state, the PDP today has more aspirants jostling to pick the party’s gubernatorial ticket for the 2015 contest in Kwara. Thus the scale of politicking for tickets appears higher and thicker within the opposition party than within the ruling APC. The battle for the PDP governorship ticket is being fought among five aspirants.

Gbemisola Ruqayat Saraki

Another influential scion of the Saraki dynasty, Gbemisola, also called GRS by her supporters, is most likely to test her political strength and acceptance against that of her brother, Bukola Saraki, in another election. In the last one month, GRS has been at home in Kwara quietly visiting various wards, groups and individuals and doling out funds in a manner many claim resembles the acclaimed generosity of her late father, Dr. Olusola Saraki.

Gbemi has a strong political structure, perhaps ahead of most other aspirants. The evidence of her strength was in the way it was put to use during the party’s congresses early this year in which her group/affiliation emerged to control 15 of the 16 local government executive members of the party and 30 out of the 33 state executive members of the party.

During the gubernatorial election in 2011, she came third behind the incumbent governor, Alhaji AbdulFattah Ahmed then of the PDP and Mr. Dele Belgore of the then Action Congress of Nigerian (ACN). Strength: Her strong points include her stable political structure which has been nurtured for years. She has also contested before, so she knows the intricacies and nuances involved in a gubernatorial race. She put both to use during the party’s congress and floored her opponents.

She also has a deep purse from which she apparently could prosecute a gubernatorial campaign. She is adored by many of the younger generation of female politicians in the state who swam around her often. Weaknesses: Her gender is the first serious factor against her.

It stood against her ambition in 2011 even when she was backed by the powerful force of her father who personally went out to campaign for her throughout the nooks and crannies of the state. Many conservative Muslims are not ready to accept the picture of a female governor.

They said so in 2011 through their votes and the party may consider this a factor in deciding who to field for 2015. It was a big issue that divided Islamic scholars and politicians in the state then. Another factor against her is the name; Saraki. It has been difficult selling her identity as a Saraki to people within the PDP whose slogan is to enjoy freedom from the past of Kwara; the past mostly built and controlled by Saraki.

To worsen this is the fact that she has been distancing herself from party activities of recent. She was conspicuously absent at the recent reception for the Minister of National Planning, Dr. Suleiman Abubakar even though she was said to have been at home in the state capital, Ilorin, during the ceremony. She is from Kwara Central which has been in the saddle for 12 out of 16 years of the current democratic dispensation.

Makanjuola Ajadi

The Presidential Adviser on National Assembly Matters is also a generous, core politician with vast grassroots support. The former lecturer, former commissioner, former senator and now Presidential Adviser is an old political war horse. Ajadi’s appointment as presidential adviser is seen as an empowerment move for him and a measure to strengthen the PDP in the state.

He has empowerment projects in several communities in his southern senatorial district and since his appointment, Ajadi who suffered economic blockade during his days against the Saraki dynasty has become busy again; his home has become a Mecca of sorts for his supporters.

He has, however, told them that his final decision on the gubernatorial race will be determined by President Goodluck Jonathan. When he had the opportunity to fly the flag in 2007, he made a good impression although he couldn’t achieve much due to funding challenges.

He has spoken out against any plan by the party to shift the ticket back to Kwara Central, saying his southern senatorial district, which produced the incumbent governor, deserves to complete the tenure of two terms, even if half of that is used by the opposition. Strength: Ajadi’s strength is in his past involvement with the people of Kwara. He could be safely regarded as the “Saraki of Kwara south” given his generosity and personalised involvement with the people, particularly at the grassroots level.

He established empowerment projects in almost every community in Kwara South. He could go to any length to identify with the people, no matter their status in life. He has also contested the election before and so has practical ideas about how things often go. His present position as Special Adviser to Jonathan could also put him in an advantageous position. He is from Kwara South which zoning principle favours.

Weaknesses: The years he spent in ‘political wilderness’ starting from when he lost his Senate seat to Senator Simon Ajibola in 2003 until his latest appointment in 2014 has drained him of some level of followership and influence. He has been out of active political circle/radar for the period. His current appointment, coming so close to the battle time for the ticket, could also be a strategic move to cut him off from the race.

One of the factors that made him lose in 2007 was the absence of a coordinated resource base although there were claims the funds were allegedly used by other powerful elements within the party. It is not clear if he would have been able to muster enough resources by now to prosecute the battle if chosen.

Shuaib Abdulraheem

The former Vice Chancellor, University of Ilorin and current chairman, Federal Character Commission (FCC) has not hidden his ambition to rule the state; seeking to taste the political pudding he has been helping others to prepare since 1999.

Thus for a long time, talks about his interest in the gubernatorial ticket has been on among major stakeholders with some expressing concern over what they call his desperation for the job. The professor of literature has his own slice of the political base in the state, particularly within Ilorin emirate where he is regarded with awe by many and despised by his opponents.

Just two weeks ago, his group pushed aside other contenders within Ilorin West Local Government in the quest to produce the local government executive leadership of the party after months of wrangling and intrigues. A very excited Oba, as the FCC boss is called among his followers, told PDP supporters at the inauguration of the council exco that it proved he is fully on ground as an astute grassroots politician.

The inauguration has however been put on hold by a court order, indicating that those against him are not going to give up so easily. The outcome of the PDP congresses during which most of his candidates lost, is interpreted by some as an indication that most delegates may vote for someone else other than him in a real contest. He led the Freedom Group which raised several objections to the outcome of the congress before Abuja called them to order and dumped their petition.

Strength: Oba’s major strong point is that he was perhaps the first member of the Saraki political structure to stand against the system when the issue of his bid to go back to his seat as chairman of the FCC came up. He stood against the system and won the battle for the FCC seat. So, he is seen as bold. He has also used his position to secure jobs for many Kwarans, particularly his kinsmen.

He has also been sponsoring many students from the state in schools. Weaknesses: Apart from his shot at the ticket in 2011, the professor has not contested for any political office before. The allegation that he has been employing and helping mostly people from his political ward may not help him in the contest. The party may also go back to the issue of UNILORIN and the fact that his emergence may antagonise teachers, activists and many people outside Kwara Central who consider his tenure as a time their kith and kin began to lose influence at the university.

Does he have the purse to pursue the election if given the ticket? It is doubtful. His perceived initial role in the effort to remove the current state leadership of the party after the congress may count against him, just as his perceived role in the current leadership crisis bedevilling the party in his Ilorin West Local Government may present him as a man given to divisiveness. He is from Kwara Central which has been in the saddle for 12 out of 16 years of the current democratic dispensation.

Simon Ajibola

Among the serious contenders for the Kwara governorship today within the PDP, Ajibola, a ranking senator, sits tops. The seriousness he has deployed to his ambition is clear to all. He has secured a project office while his mates are either selling off theirs, or have nothing on ground to show. He has deployed resources to back up his ambition and been doing what some describe as compensating for the years he was not showing goodwill to many. He has set up various structures to support his ambition.

His opponents need to be wary of his penchant for winning where he is considered an underdog. When he contested the Senate seat during the transition programme of the late General Sani Abacha, on the platform of the United Nigeria Congress Party (UNCP), he was regarded as an underdog, but he went ahead to win. In 2003, he ran for Senate again on the ticket of the PDP. That time Ajadi, candidate of the All Nigeria People’s Party (ANPP), was declared winner. Yet in a surprise turn of event, Ajibola came to win the legal battle he instituted to claim that senatorial seat. Since then he has been in the Senate. Strength: He has been supportive of the party.

He has donated vehicles to the party and supportive of the system that produced the current party leadership. He has a coordinated structure that can swing into action once given the ticket. There are unconfirmed reports that GRS has given him her blessings for the race, which would be a strong plus for him. He is from Kwara South. There are claims that he has enough resources to fight a gubernatorial battle. Weaknesses: Many perceive Ajibola as not being generous to people until his decision to try the ticket. Many also argue that unlike his contemporaries from the state, he has not been a visible legislator.

His kinsmen almost rejected him in 2011 during his third run for the Senate but for the intervention of then governor, Bukola Saraki. Contesting against an Ajadi from the same district will be a big headache for a man like Ajibola in terms of public perception on the scale of generosity and influence.

Dele Belgore (SAN)

During the 2011 polls, Belgore was a force to reckon with and as a contender within the fold of PDP heavyweights, he is still an issue. He had, and still has, a strong following among youths. Belgore was one of the crowd pullers during the recent North-Central Town Hall meeting organised by Jonathan Actualisation Movement (JAM) in Ilorin.

The talk in town initially was that the former gubernatorial candidate of the defunct ACN was lured into the PDP with a promise to make him the party’s candidate given his performance in the 2011 contest. However, the game plan may change given the way other ‘landlords’ in the party are also making claims to the same ticket. Evidence of his possible loss of political weight was in the fact that he could not produce any of the executive members in the PDP despite his avowed popularity.

His candidate had to withdraw from the race when he saw the way things were going at the primaries. But the Belgore name remains a strong asset for his political venture. Strength: When he contested in 2011, he made a big show, coming second behind the winner. He is bold and courageous, a disposition that enabled him confront the two Saraki machineries of PDP and ACPN in 2011.

That record is said to have impressed some hawks in the party who are willing to back him. He has strong followership across the state particularly in Kwara South. Weaknesses: It is doubtful if he has the money to prosecute the war if chosen. In 2011 he got the backing of the Bola Tinubu machinery which he has now lost. He is a new comer to the party and many see him as too ambitious; that it was ambition that drove him away from the APC.

Can he be trusted among the PDP? The same principle he fought against in APC might come to hunt him in the new party. He is from Kwara Central which has been in the saddle for 12 out of 16 years of the current democratic dispensation.

Jani Ibrahim

Ibrahim, a foremost industrialist and former Managing Director of the defunct Nigerian Airways, came into the race recently in a surprise move. But those promoting him tell of his readiness, both intellectually and financially to handle the race.

Although he has not been active on the political scene, those close to him explain that he has been effectively in the PDP for a long time helping to see to the success of previous aspirants and candidates. “Ibrahim has a deep pocket and this is a project he is well-prepared for; it is not something he just woke up to do, it is a project he has thought deeply about and consulted widely about,” one of his handlers recently told newsmen.

They also taunt his economic blueprint for the state, hinged on the success of his enterprises across Africa and the fact that today he is the largest employer of labour in the state after the state government. But there are those who are raising eyebrows over his close relationship with Senator Saraki, the APC leader in the state. The fear among those who raise the issue is that he may not be able to really fight the ruling party under the control of his close friend if given the ticket.

The seriousness of the accusation can be seen in a recent outburst of some of his supporters who threatened to dump him for sending a delegation to the senator during the latter’s wife’s 50th birthday celebration. But his handlers argue that there was no need to entertain such fears. Strength: Ibrahim has financial resources and he is ready to spend it. He has practical experience in building businesses and people. He is second largest employer of labour in the state after government.

He has been successful in the corporate world and has a vast network of people he could tap for resources and assistance of any form. He is humble and a great listener. He has been consistent as a member of the party, even when his friends drifted to other platforms. He is from a minority group in Kwara South which resonates with contemporary political trend. He has been able to secure a court verdict exonerating him of wrong doings during his days at the defunct Nigerian Airways.

Weaknesses: He has never prosecuted a political war. He carries with him the burden that he was the last man to manage Nigerian Airways before it went under. He is a friend to Bukola Saraki, and considering that the mention of the former governor’s name is political anathemas within the PDP, being fingered as his friend is a sure great albatross to bear.