The Director-General of the National Institute for Legislative and Democratic Studies, Abubakar Olanrewaju Sulaiman, has warned that it would be politically risky for the All Progressives Congress to zone its 2027 governorship ticket in Kwara State to the Northern district.

Sulaiman, who hails from Kwara Central Senatorial District, described such a move as "suicidal" without a clear electoral advantage.

The NILDS DG, who has also declared his intention to contest the 2027 governorship election on the platform of the APC, made the remarks in a viral video obtained by The PUNCH on Friday amid growing agitation for zoning and power rotation across the state's three senatorial districts.

Speaking on the controversy, Sulaiman acknowledged the legitimacy of zoning demands but questioned their electoral implications.

"For a state with diverse people and communities, power rotation is key. I don't blame anybody talking about zoning.

"I am not against zoning, I am not against power rotation, and I am not against the clamour by sections of Kwara to say, 'yes, it is our turn.' But the question is: how does power rotation and zoning translate into electoral victory?" he said.

Sulaiman stressed that political parties are ultimately guided by their chances of winning elections. He stated, "If a party knows that zoning power to a particular side will not give it the likely victory, the party will not zone.

"If the variables on the ground do not give you the leverage, and the vantage position does not place you in a comfortable position to zone, you don't take that risk."

He warned that ignoring these realities could be politically damaging.

"You don't take that risk. It will amount to committing political suicide."

Whilst expressing empathy for proponents of zoning, he maintained that electoral strength must remain the overriding consideration.

"Fundamentally, you don't blame people who talk about zoning or power rotation," he said.

"And I sympathise with them or empathise with their clamour, but the point is that no political party takes the risk of zoning a ticket to where it does not believe it has a comparative advantage of winning that election.

"You must have that advantage comfortably; not only comparative, but a clear and comfortable advantage to say, 'yes, we are going into this election and we are sure of winning," he said.

Sulaiman further argued that any decision driven by sentiment rather than strategy could backfire for the ruling party.

"So, to me, my position is that the APC can't afford to take risks, because it will be risky if, at the other end, despite having the population and electoral strength in Kwara Central, out of love we try to zone to Kwara North Senatorial District.

"I think it will be too much of a risk, which I believe the President, Bola Tinubu, the governor, and stakeholders in Kwara State will not venture into," he said.

Drawing comparisons with other states, he added that similar zoning risks were not taken elsewhere.

"Nobody does that in Oyo State. Nobody does that in Benue State. And we can't afford to lose this election," he said.

The zoning debate has, however, emerged as a defining factor in the succession conversation, particularly with increasing agitation for power to shift to Kwara North.

The issue gained further prominence after the Kwara State chairman of the APC, Sunday Fagbemi, stated that the party had yet to take a definitive position on zoning.

"For the benefit of hindsight, we have 100 per cent chances of victory.

"What we are looking at now is making sure that the winning margin is enlarged, and that is already in the oven.

"All the people who worked against us during the last election are now with us. Naturally, the margin should be very big. By the grace of God, it is going to be 100 per cent again," Fagbemi said.

Fagbemi also downplayed fears of an internal crisis ahead of the party primaries, insisting that the APC would manage the ambitions of aspirants.

He explained, "There will be no battles amongst the potential aspirants ahead of the party's primary. These are just questions of interest, and you cannot say someone should not have an interest.

"What we are saying is that there should be healthy competition amongst them. By the grace of God, whoever emerges victorious at the primary will become the candidate of the party, and we will support such an individual to ensure victory."

The interplay between zoning demands and electoral calculations is already shaping the dynamics of the 2027 governorship race in Kwara state as stakeholders weigh equity against perceived voting strength in determining the APC's eventual candidate.