OPINION: Why Saraki may not rule Kwara again. By Kayode Oyin-Zubair

Date: 2016-10-21

This subject I am sure will upset the status quo and raise dust among the traditionalists in our dear state of Kwara but that can never deter one from doing scientific analysis of our political leanings and voting pattern.

It is a known fact that the 'Saraki political dynasty' led by the old war horse, Olusola Saraki ruled the Kwara political space for a good period of time having mastered the 'psyche' of the people, though Saraki lost elections before 1979. He rode on the back of 'Egbe Onikeke to warm himself into the hearts of the Ilorin indigenes and residents.

The story of how his son and heir apparent, Bukola Saraki became the governor of Kwara State is better said by you. You will recall that the feud that broke out between Olusola Saraki and Mohammed Lawal, the former governor as from 1999 - 2003 was unique on every side. The duo (now in another world) were from Ilorin and generals in their first callings. Saraki was the 'pillar of Kwara politics', and Lawal a former governor and Rear Admiral in the military, what you refer to as General in the army. The feud lasted until the end of Lawal's administration.

Olusola Saraki lived until 2012 but Mohammed Lawal died much earlier. Lawal died in 2006, exactly 10 years this month. The opportunity to test their acceptability amongst the people of the state could have happened in 2007. Sadly, death dashed that hope.

Three political parties contested in 2003 gubernatorial election in Kwara State, they were the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) and Alliance for Democracy (AD). The PDP as at that time enjoyed what is known in Nigeria as 'federal might' and the Saraki's structured structure.

The ANPP presented the incumbent but lacked 'essential ingredients' of winning election except liquid cash that it had in surplus. The AD was colored a Yoruba party, yes it was, with governors only in the Southwest and her slogan: AD...Progress...Afenifere... Ire Owo, Afenifere... Ire Omo... Afenifere... Odua O gbe wa o. The party lacked everything but an innovative Campaign.

Now, let's check 2011 and 2015 elections which could be considered as elections that Bukola Saraki put his heart into. Bukola Saraki contested against his father and sister (ACPN) in 2011 when he presented his godson, Gov. Abdulfatah Ahmed. Ahmed won in that election.

Please see below, the 2015 election result in Kwara State:

Presidential
APC - 211, 513 (69.60%)
PDP - 90, 826 (30.31%)

Kwara South Senatorial
APC - 53, 102 (58.61%)
PDP - 44, 862 (41.39%)

Kwara Central Senatorial
APC - 83, 639 (64.89%)
PDP - 44, 862 (34.81%)

Kwara North Senatorial
APC - 60, 385 (69.48%)
PDP - 26, 138 (30.07%)

That was how we voted in the elections held in 2015. Now, let us consider the following:

1. Where can you consider as the strong hold of Saraki in the 3 senatorial districts?

2. Who amongst the 3 senators performed less - attractive in that election?

3. Can you see Buhari's influence helping any of the senatorial candidates since their elections were held on the same day and simultaneously?

These are some of the posers one should direct to the elements that shrouded their shoulders in the past, that they gave everyone living in Kwara State the air to breath. Should Saraki decided to remove the 211, 513 votes in the presidential election, would Buhari have won after polling more 15m votes nationwide? Though that chunk includes my vote, that of my wife and others, so it impossible for Oga to claim ownership of everything.

The southern senatorial interests me, where I see Rafiu Ibrahim scaling the hurdle with abysmal 17.22% which translates to 8,240 votes. That was the poorest. He lost in Ekiti, Oke-Ero, Isin and had a little edge in Irepodun. The wonder that put Rafiu in the Senate came from Ifelodun, Offa and his base Oyun; the earlier 2 LGAs put him in good stead, while he couldn't command same respect in Oyun as those ones did. He lost Erin-Ile wards 1&2.

There were a number of factors that played out in that election. Votes were scarce unlike 2011, card readers checked riggers. Hunting for votes became a primary assignment. Hon. Kayode Omotose and others were deployed to Osun to learn the rope. He reported to the Mandate Campaign team upon return on a Sunday afternoon which I was a member. He told them the truth and it was our strategy in Aregbesola's campaign that was adopted.

We had polling booth committee and canvassers chasing votes, and supervisors monitoring them. It was alien to our co-travellers in the APC and they murmured all through. Our membership registration exposed them - not all wards could finish 200 cards after sending to their people in Lagos. Where were the numbers coming from, in the past?

As for Kwara Central I didn't expect Saraki to score less because a good number of the leaders of PDP in that district meet with Saraki in the night except for the Abdulrasaqs and the Sagayas. Why was is so convenient for a gubernatorial aspirant of PDP to move into the APC between 14th - 25th April, 2015? Why would state youth and women leaders of a party in fierce contest cross carpet at the same time in less than one week?

In 2011, Dr. Yahaya Oloriegbe allegedly won the Kwara Central election until the midnight when the story changed. BBC had announced Oloriegbe as the winner. This is the result, PDP -78, 799; ACN - 53,058; ACPN -42,499; CPC - 5,928. In the gubernatorial election ACN won Ilorin South and lost with about 300 votes in Ilorin West. What happened in Asa was unthinkable but there was a square contest in Ilorin East.

If you argue that Buhari had no influence on Kwara voters, let us check 2011 presidential election result. This is the result, PDP - 268, 243; CPC - 84, 603; ACN - 62,434; ANPP - 1,672.

I will argue that the 83,000 votes were genuine votes coming from the lovers of Buhari. CPC as at then could not afford to post polling agents in all the 193 wards, therefore there were booths without an agent. On 9th of April, 2011 I was in Agunjin ward, and I met Hon. Fatai Akorede in one of the polling booths. I was surprised, I asked him, Egbon why are you alone at this center? He answered me, 'I am here to check the Bororos who may want to vote for CPC'. ACN was on ground but came 3rd in that election. The DG of ANPP presidential campaign is a Kwaran who voted during that election, his party polled ridiculous 1,672 votes.

The streak that has been securing electoral victory for the Sarakis should be known to anyone who wants to make any impact in Kwara politics without their dynasty. To be concluded......

 

Cloud Tag: What's trending

Click on a word/phrase to read more about it.

Muhammadu Gobir     Mohammed Katsina Ahmed     Aso Ofi     Muhammed Mahe Abdulkadir     Adamu Ibrahim Sabi     Police Commissioner     Bola Ahmed Tinubu     Usman Alkali Baba     Saliu Mustapha     Tanke Road     Harmony Holdings     Oyedun Juliana Funke     Afonja     Garba Dogo     Women Radio     COVID     Idowu Laro     Kassim Babamale     All Peoples Party     Ile Arugbo     Kwara Coalition Of Business And Professional Associations     Sa\'adu Salahu     Sheriff Olanrewaju     Musbau A. Akanji     Abubakar Kawu Baraje     Fatimah Abdulkadir     United Nigeria Congress Party     Fatimat Saliu     Mahfouz Adedimeji     Aliyu Adebayo     Christopher Ayeni     Toyosi Thomas     Sadiq Buhari     Solomon Edojah     Kishira     Yusuf Mubarak     Abdulazeez Uthman     HAMFAT Clinic And Maternity     Muhammad Sirajo Aliyu     Sidikat Alaya     Najim Yaasin     Wahab Abayawo     Oluwatoyin Lukman     Presidential Election     Abdulrahman Abdullahi Kayode     Bursary     Fatai Garuba Labaka     Malete     Moshood Mustapha     Maigida     Quareeb Islamic Association     Transition Implementation Committee     Lasiele Alabi Yahaya     Tsaragi     Iyaloja-General     Baakini     Usman Yunusa     Issa Manzuma     Adedeji Onimago     Ibrahim Mohammed     Risikat Lawal     Olomu     Abdulmutalib Shittu     Abatemi Usman     John Kehinde Salako     Isaac Gbenle     Yusuf Aiyedun     Zulu Gambari     Mutawali     NIRSAL     Folaranmi Aro     Muritala Olarewaju     Harafat E. Mukadam     Tunde Yusuf     Dele Belgore     Bashirat Bola Bello     Folorunsho Erubu    

Cloud Tag: What's trending

Click on a word/phrase to read more about it.

Albert Ogunsola     Ijagbo Health Centre     National Union Of Road Transport Workers     Kwha.gov.ng     Henry Makinwa     CUTI     Doyin Awoyale     Kwara 2019     Kwara State Infrastructure Development Fund     Joshua Adeyemi Adimula     Kamoru Kadiri     Abdulkadir Akanbi-Oke     SWAN     Dapo Teni Nig Enterprise     Kuliyan Geri     Afonja     Kola Olota     Federal Neuro-Psychiatric Hospital     Saadu Gbogbo Iwe     Irepodun     Iqra Books     General Hospital     Saliu Oluwole     V.O. Abioye     Gbajabiamila     Post-utme     Bolaji Gambari     AbdulRasaq Abdulmajeed Alaro     Onikijipa     Musa Abdullahi     The Herald     Face Masks     Aliyu Sabi     Smart School     Oko-Erin     Kwarareports.com     Bayer Nigeria Limited     Oloyede     Joseph Daudu     Abdullah Janet Amudat     Gbenga Awoyale     Abubakar Abdullahi Bata     Adam Abdullahi Al-Ilory     Kwara Consultative Forum     Ebola     Ganmo Electricity Sub-Station     AbdulFatai Adeniyi Dan-Kazeem     Opaleke Bukola Iyabo     Chief Imam Of Offa     Abdulwahab Oba     David Oyerinola Adedunmoye     Gabriel Fashanu     Oniyangi Kunle Sulaiman     Saadu Alanamu     Galadiman Ngeri     Igbomina     Third Estate     Geri-Alimi Split Diamond Interchange     Aremu Odolaye     Atiku     Oyin-Zubair     Afetu Of Alabe     Hassan Taiye Salam     Budo Egba     Abdulfatai Baakini     Adisa Logun     Oluwatoyin Lukman     Innocent Okoye     Apaola     Paul Olawoore     Erubu     Abdulrazaq Solihudeen     Mansur Alfanla     Raji Ayodele Kamaldeen     Okin Group     Kwara Polytechnic     NFAI