OPINION: Why Saraki may not rule Kwara again. By Kayode Oyin-Zubair

Date: 2016-10-21

This subject I am sure will upset the status quo and raise dust among the traditionalists in our dear state of Kwara but that can never deter one from doing scientific analysis of our political leanings and voting pattern.

It is a known fact that the 'Saraki political dynasty' led by the old war horse, Olusola Saraki ruled the Kwara political space for a good period of time having mastered the 'psyche' of the people, though Saraki lost elections before 1979. He rode on the back of 'Egbe Onikeke to warm himself into the hearts of the Ilorin indigenes and residents.

The story of how his son and heir apparent, Bukola Saraki became the governor of Kwara State is better said by you. You will recall that the feud that broke out between Olusola Saraki and Mohammed Lawal, the former governor as from 1999 - 2003 was unique on every side. The duo (now in another world) were from Ilorin and generals in their first callings. Saraki was the 'pillar of Kwara politics', and Lawal a former governor and Rear Admiral in the military, what you refer to as General in the army. The feud lasted until the end of Lawal's administration.

Olusola Saraki lived until 2012 but Mohammed Lawal died much earlier. Lawal died in 2006, exactly 10 years this month. The opportunity to test their acceptability amongst the people of the state could have happened in 2007. Sadly, death dashed that hope.

Three political parties contested in 2003 gubernatorial election in Kwara State, they were the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) and Alliance for Democracy (AD). The PDP as at that time enjoyed what is known in Nigeria as 'federal might' and the Saraki's structured structure.

The ANPP presented the incumbent but lacked 'essential ingredients' of winning election except liquid cash that it had in surplus. The AD was colored a Yoruba party, yes it was, with governors only in the Southwest and her slogan: AD...Progress...Afenifere... Ire Owo, Afenifere... Ire Omo... Afenifere... Odua O gbe wa o. The party lacked everything but an innovative Campaign.

Now, let's check 2011 and 2015 elections which could be considered as elections that Bukola Saraki put his heart into. Bukola Saraki contested against his father and sister (ACPN) in 2011 when he presented his godson, Gov. Abdulfatah Ahmed. Ahmed won in that election.

Please see below, the 2015 election result in Kwara State:

Presidential
APC - 211, 513 (69.60%)
PDP - 90, 826 (30.31%)

Kwara South Senatorial
APC - 53, 102 (58.61%)
PDP - 44, 862 (41.39%)

Kwara Central Senatorial
APC - 83, 639 (64.89%)
PDP - 44, 862 (34.81%)

Kwara North Senatorial
APC - 60, 385 (69.48%)
PDP - 26, 138 (30.07%)

That was how we voted in the elections held in 2015. Now, let us consider the following:

1. Where can you consider as the strong hold of Saraki in the 3 senatorial districts?

2. Who amongst the 3 senators performed less - attractive in that election?

3. Can you see Buhari's influence helping any of the senatorial candidates since their elections were held on the same day and simultaneously?

These are some of the posers one should direct to the elements that shrouded their shoulders in the past, that they gave everyone living in Kwara State the air to breath. Should Saraki decided to remove the 211, 513 votes in the presidential election, would Buhari have won after polling more 15m votes nationwide? Though that chunk includes my vote, that of my wife and others, so it impossible for Oga to claim ownership of everything.

The southern senatorial interests me, where I see Rafiu Ibrahim scaling the hurdle with abysmal 17.22% which translates to 8,240 votes. That was the poorest. He lost in Ekiti, Oke-Ero, Isin and had a little edge in Irepodun. The wonder that put Rafiu in the Senate came from Ifelodun, Offa and his base Oyun; the earlier 2 LGAs put him in good stead, while he couldn't command same respect in Oyun as those ones did. He lost Erin-Ile wards 1&2.

There were a number of factors that played out in that election. Votes were scarce unlike 2011, card readers checked riggers. Hunting for votes became a primary assignment. Hon. Kayode Omotose and others were deployed to Osun to learn the rope. He reported to the Mandate Campaign team upon return on a Sunday afternoon which I was a member. He told them the truth and it was our strategy in Aregbesola's campaign that was adopted.

We had polling booth committee and canvassers chasing votes, and supervisors monitoring them. It was alien to our co-travellers in the APC and they murmured all through. Our membership registration exposed them - not all wards could finish 200 cards after sending to their people in Lagos. Where were the numbers coming from, in the past?

As for Kwara Central I didn't expect Saraki to score less because a good number of the leaders of PDP in that district meet with Saraki in the night except for the Abdulrasaqs and the Sagayas. Why was is so convenient for a gubernatorial aspirant of PDP to move into the APC between 14th - 25th April, 2015? Why would state youth and women leaders of a party in fierce contest cross carpet at the same time in less than one week?

In 2011, Dr. Yahaya Oloriegbe allegedly won the Kwara Central election until the midnight when the story changed. BBC had announced Oloriegbe as the winner. This is the result, PDP -78, 799; ACN - 53,058; ACPN -42,499; CPC - 5,928. In the gubernatorial election ACN won Ilorin South and lost with about 300 votes in Ilorin West. What happened in Asa was unthinkable but there was a square contest in Ilorin East.

If you argue that Buhari had no influence on Kwara voters, let us check 2011 presidential election result. This is the result, PDP - 268, 243; CPC - 84, 603; ACN - 62,434; ANPP - 1,672.

I will argue that the 83,000 votes were genuine votes coming from the lovers of Buhari. CPC as at then could not afford to post polling agents in all the 193 wards, therefore there were booths without an agent. On 9th of April, 2011 I was in Agunjin ward, and I met Hon. Fatai Akorede in one of the polling booths. I was surprised, I asked him, Egbon why are you alone at this center? He answered me, 'I am here to check the Bororos who may want to vote for CPC'. ACN was on ground but came 3rd in that election. The DG of ANPP presidential campaign is a Kwaran who voted during that election, his party polled ridiculous 1,672 votes.

The streak that has been securing electoral victory for the Sarakis should be known to anyone who wants to make any impact in Kwara politics without their dynasty. To be concluded......

 

Cloud Tag: What's trending

Click on a word/phrase to read more about it.

Jide Ashonibare     AbdulRahman Saad     Olaiya Victor Mobolaji     Ganmo Electricity Sub-Station     International Vocational Centre     Shehu Adaramaja     TESCOM 2025     Clement Yomi Adeboye     Maryam A. Garuba     Isiaka Saka Opobiyi     Bukola Ajikobi     Kayode Zubair     Usman Yunusa     Lawan     New Naira Notes     Medinat Folorunsho Salman     Habeeb Saidu     Split Diamond Interchange     Women Radio     Saad Omo\'ya     IF-K     Standard Organization Of Nigeria     Irepodun     Hassan Saliu     Yeketi     Salau Kabiru Abdullahi     Abdulkarim Adisa     Toyin Abdullahi     Abubakar Olusola Saraki     Abdulkadri Ahmad Alaiye     Muhammadu Buhari     Trade Lenda SME Fair     NFAI     Durbar     Abdulmalik Bashir Mopelola Risikatullahi     Bola Iyabo Ibiyeye Adisa     Shuaibu Yaman Abdullahi     Adedipe     Samuel Olusegun Adedayo     Adamu Jemilat-Baki     Owode Market     Muhammad-Mustapha Suleiman     International Public Sector Accounting Standards     Sulu Babaita Isiaka     Toun Okewale-Sonaiya     Laolu Saraki     Yahaya Abdulkareem     Ubandawaki     Ahmed Saidu Rufai     Ishola Abdullahi     Admiralty Villa     Code Of Conduct Tribunal     Agor Market     Sanitation Exercise     Oko     Gambari     Sabitiyu Grillo     Saidu Isa     Abubakar Abdullahi Bata     Kayode Laro     Olam Food Ingredients     Lafiagi     Mumeen Lah     Ita-Nmo Market     Lanre Issa-Onilu     Garba Ayodele Wahab     Abdulquawiy Olododo     Busari Alabi Alausa     MAI Akande     Magaji Nda     Bello Oyebanji     Lanre Olosunde     Kwara State Fire Service     Waziri Yakubu Gobir     Sarah Jubril     Garba Dogo     Joseph Yemi Ajayi    

Cloud Tag: What's trending

Click on a word/phrase to read more about it.

Christian Association Of Nigeria     SSA Youth Engagement     Hydroelectric Power Producing Areas Development Commission     Oke-Oyi     Lukman Adeloyin     AIT Ilorin     GRA     Kamaldeen Ajibade     Offa     Ilorin Water Reticulation     Surajudeen Akanbi     Tosho Yaqub     Patience Jonathan     Mohammed Lawal Bagega     Abdullahi G. Mohammad     Aminat Omodara     Oba Abu     Kolade Solagberu     Olokoba     Yunus Lawal     KWSIEC     Igosun     Akanbi-Oke     Mohammed Tunde-Jimoh     Abdullateef Abdussalam     Col. Ibrahim Taiwo     Rotimi Samuel Olujide     JAMB     Facebook     Olatunde Olukoya     Yakub Ali-Agan     Neuropsychiatric Hospital     Mohammed Saidu     Ayo Salami     Kwara     Galadima     Lanre Olosunde     Kwara State Television     CCT     College Of Health     Iyaloja-General     GANZY     Elerin Of Adanla     Balogin Alanamu     Fola Consultant     Muideen Olaniyi Alalade     Abdulrauf Yusuf     Kayode Oyin-Zubair     Aliyu Kora-Sabi     United Nigeria Congress Party     Musibau Akanji     Abdulrahman Onikijipa     Twitter     Belgore     Abubakar B.M     Law School Scholarship     Aso Ofi     Budo Egba     Yusuf Arowosaye     Woro     Olatunde Oyeyiola     Jawondo     Suleiman Alege Kuranga     Sobi Specialist Hospital     Zulkifli Ibraheem     Oja-Oba     Mohammed Katsina Ahmed     Sa\'adu Salahu     Ahman Patigi     Oasis Muslim Care Foundation     Crystal Corner Shops     Alabi Lawal     Sulyman Abdulkareem     Moji Makanjuola     Florence Saraki     General Hospital     Monsurat Omotosho