OPINION: Why Saraki may not rule Kwara again. By Kayode Oyin-Zubair

Date: 2016-10-21

This subject I am sure will upset the status quo and raise dust among the traditionalists in our dear state of Kwara but that can never deter one from doing scientific analysis of our political leanings and voting pattern.

It is a known fact that the 'Saraki political dynasty' led by the old war horse, Olusola Saraki ruled the Kwara political space for a good period of time having mastered the 'psyche' of the people, though Saraki lost elections before 1979. He rode on the back of 'Egbe Onikeke to warm himself into the hearts of the Ilorin indigenes and residents.

The story of how his son and heir apparent, Bukola Saraki became the governor of Kwara State is better said by you. You will recall that the feud that broke out between Olusola Saraki and Mohammed Lawal, the former governor as from 1999 - 2003 was unique on every side. The duo (now in another world) were from Ilorin and generals in their first callings. Saraki was the 'pillar of Kwara politics', and Lawal a former governor and Rear Admiral in the military, what you refer to as General in the army. The feud lasted until the end of Lawal's administration.

Olusola Saraki lived until 2012 but Mohammed Lawal died much earlier. Lawal died in 2006, exactly 10 years this month. The opportunity to test their acceptability amongst the people of the state could have happened in 2007. Sadly, death dashed that hope.

Three political parties contested in 2003 gubernatorial election in Kwara State, they were the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) and Alliance for Democracy (AD). The PDP as at that time enjoyed what is known in Nigeria as 'federal might' and the Saraki's structured structure.

The ANPP presented the incumbent but lacked 'essential ingredients' of winning election except liquid cash that it had in surplus. The AD was colored a Yoruba party, yes it was, with governors only in the Southwest and her slogan: AD...Progress...Afenifere... Ire Owo, Afenifere... Ire Omo... Afenifere... Odua O gbe wa o. The party lacked everything but an innovative Campaign.

Now, let's check 2011 and 2015 elections which could be considered as elections that Bukola Saraki put his heart into. Bukola Saraki contested against his father and sister (ACPN) in 2011 when he presented his godson, Gov. Abdulfatah Ahmed. Ahmed won in that election.

Please see below, the 2015 election result in Kwara State:

Presidential
APC - 211, 513 (69.60%)
PDP - 90, 826 (30.31%)

Kwara South Senatorial
APC - 53, 102 (58.61%)
PDP - 44, 862 (41.39%)

Kwara Central Senatorial
APC - 83, 639 (64.89%)
PDP - 44, 862 (34.81%)

Kwara North Senatorial
APC - 60, 385 (69.48%)
PDP - 26, 138 (30.07%)

That was how we voted in the elections held in 2015. Now, let us consider the following:

1. Where can you consider as the strong hold of Saraki in the 3 senatorial districts?

2. Who amongst the 3 senators performed less - attractive in that election?

3. Can you see Buhari's influence helping any of the senatorial candidates since their elections were held on the same day and simultaneously?

These are some of the posers one should direct to the elements that shrouded their shoulders in the past, that they gave everyone living in Kwara State the air to breath. Should Saraki decided to remove the 211, 513 votes in the presidential election, would Buhari have won after polling more 15m votes nationwide? Though that chunk includes my vote, that of my wife and others, so it impossible for Oga to claim ownership of everything.

The southern senatorial interests me, where I see Rafiu Ibrahim scaling the hurdle with abysmal 17.22% which translates to 8,240 votes. That was the poorest. He lost in Ekiti, Oke-Ero, Isin and had a little edge in Irepodun. The wonder that put Rafiu in the Senate came from Ifelodun, Offa and his base Oyun; the earlier 2 LGAs put him in good stead, while he couldn't command same respect in Oyun as those ones did. He lost Erin-Ile wards 1&2.

There were a number of factors that played out in that election. Votes were scarce unlike 2011, card readers checked riggers. Hunting for votes became a primary assignment. Hon. Kayode Omotose and others were deployed to Osun to learn the rope. He reported to the Mandate Campaign team upon return on a Sunday afternoon which I was a member. He told them the truth and it was our strategy in Aregbesola's campaign that was adopted.

We had polling booth committee and canvassers chasing votes, and supervisors monitoring them. It was alien to our co-travellers in the APC and they murmured all through. Our membership registration exposed them - not all wards could finish 200 cards after sending to their people in Lagos. Where were the numbers coming from, in the past?

As for Kwara Central I didn't expect Saraki to score less because a good number of the leaders of PDP in that district meet with Saraki in the night except for the Abdulrasaqs and the Sagayas. Why was is so convenient for a gubernatorial aspirant of PDP to move into the APC between 14th - 25th April, 2015? Why would state youth and women leaders of a party in fierce contest cross carpet at the same time in less than one week?

In 2011, Dr. Yahaya Oloriegbe allegedly won the Kwara Central election until the midnight when the story changed. BBC had announced Oloriegbe as the winner. This is the result, PDP -78, 799; ACN - 53,058; ACPN -42,499; CPC - 5,928. In the gubernatorial election ACN won Ilorin South and lost with about 300 votes in Ilorin West. What happened in Asa was unthinkable but there was a square contest in Ilorin East.

If you argue that Buhari had no influence on Kwara voters, let us check 2011 presidential election result. This is the result, PDP - 268, 243; CPC - 84, 603; ACN - 62,434; ANPP - 1,672.

I will argue that the 83,000 votes were genuine votes coming from the lovers of Buhari. CPC as at then could not afford to post polling agents in all the 193 wards, therefore there were booths without an agent. On 9th of April, 2011 I was in Agunjin ward, and I met Hon. Fatai Akorede in one of the polling booths. I was surprised, I asked him, Egbon why are you alone at this center? He answered me, 'I am here to check the Bororos who may want to vote for CPC'. ACN was on ground but came 3rd in that election. The DG of ANPP presidential campaign is a Kwaran who voted during that election, his party polled ridiculous 1,672 votes.

The streak that has been securing electoral victory for the Sarakis should be known to anyone who wants to make any impact in Kwara politics without their dynasty. To be concluded......

 


Cloud Tag: What's trending

Click on a word/phrase to read more about it.

Gbemisola Oguntimehin     Atiku Abubakar     Jimba Babatunde     Ubandoma     Aisha Buhari     Mazars Consulting     KWAFFA     Geri-Alimi Split Diamond Interchange     Air Peace     Ayo Salami     Stephen Fasakin     Alao Ayotunde     Ibrahim Abduquadri Abikan     Abdullahi G. Mohammad     IHS     Lukman Oyebanji Fagbemi     Sanitation Exercise     Maigida Soludero Transit     David Adesina     International Public Sector Accounting Standards     Titus Ashaolu     Tosho Yaqub     Emir Of Yashikira     Lanwa     Oro Grammar School     Ramat Oganija     HAMFAT Clinic And Maternity     Mohammed Tunde-Jimoh     Lanre Jimoh     Demola Banu     Funmilayo Zubair     IYA YUSUF     Ilorin Like-Minds     Kola Adesina     Ilorin     Daud Adeshola     Iyabo Adewuyi     Orisun Igbomina     Baba Idris     Ayekale     Mustapha AbdulGaniyu     Shaaba Lafiagi     Mary Arinde     Afolabi-Oshatimehin     Minimum Wage     Ishak Mohammed Sabi     Abdulfatai Baakini     Benin Republic     A.G.F Abdulrasaq     Ijagbo Health Centre     Saeedat Aliyu     Balikis Jawondo     Yekeen Alabi     Orire     Umar Gunu     Nnazua     Makama     Onilupeju Of Ilupeju     Baba-Isale     Sa\'adu Salahu     Www.Kwarareports.com     Kayode Alabi     John Mayokun Dada     Olabimpe Olani     GGDSS Pakata     Yashikira     Alabe     Balogun Fulani     MMWG     Share-Tsaragi     April 11     Lateef Fagbemi     Hussein Oloyede     Hassan Saliu     Joseph Alex Offorjama     Abatemi Usman     Tope Daramola    

Cloud Tag: What's trending

Click on a word/phrase to read more about it.

Folashade Omoniyi     Pategi     Niyi Ogundiran     KWSUED     Sulyman Atolagbe Alege     Kwara State Internal Revenue Service     Bayo Ajia     Grillo     MATTA Girls Foundation     Junior Secondary School Certificate Examinations     Unicontinental Construction Company     Kayode Ibrahim     GANZY     Ado Bayero     Gurei     KWASEIC     Shao     Lafiagi     Igbaja     Muazam Nayaya     Sam Okaula     Ilorin East/South Federal Constituency     Ilorin Emirate Stakeholders Forum     Hikmah AbdulKareem     Lucky Omoluwa     Borgu     IPSAS     Gbenga Olawepo     Modupe Oluwole     Kwara University Of Education     Dauda Adeniran Adeshola     Muhammed Aliyu     Sheikh Hamzat Yusuf Ariyibi     Al-Ilory     Dapo Teni Nig Enterprise     Maryam Ado Bayero     Ganmo Electricity Sub-Station     Abdulazeez Uthman     Mohammed Abduraheem     Air Peace     Afolabi-Oshatimehin Adenike Harriet     Quareeb Islamic Association     Shururat Olatinwo     AbdulKareem Yusuf Danhawa     Pacify Labs     Folorunsho Erubu     Elekoyangan     Adisa Logun     Gbemisola Oguntimehin     Offa Grammer School     Kola Ologbondiyan     General Tunde Idiagbon International Airport     Dele Momodu     John Kehinde Salako     Harrison Osauwagboe     Alfa Belgore     IsDB     Bamikole Omishore     Kola Bukoye     Amuda Musbau     Trade Lenda SME Fair     BIR     Coalition Of Kwara North Groups     Face Masks     Pakata Patriots     Ijagbo     Onikijipa     Timothy Akangbe     Taofik Abiodun Ahmed     Bature Bello     NSCIA     Ilorin Descendants Progressive Union     Tunji Folami     Owu Fall     Ilorin Airport     UITH     Gobir Organization Foundation