OPINION: Why Saraki may not rule Kwara again. By Kayode Oyin-Zubair

Date: 2016-10-21

This subject I am sure will upset the status quo and raise dust among the traditionalists in our dear state of Kwara but that can never deter one from doing scientific analysis of our political leanings and voting pattern.

It is a known fact that the 'Saraki political dynasty' led by the old war horse, Olusola Saraki ruled the Kwara political space for a good period of time having mastered the 'psyche' of the people, though Saraki lost elections before 1979. He rode on the back of 'Egbe Onikeke to warm himself into the hearts of the Ilorin indigenes and residents.

The story of how his son and heir apparent, Bukola Saraki became the governor of Kwara State is better said by you. You will recall that the feud that broke out between Olusola Saraki and Mohammed Lawal, the former governor as from 1999 - 2003 was unique on every side. The duo (now in another world) were from Ilorin and generals in their first callings. Saraki was the 'pillar of Kwara politics', and Lawal a former governor and Rear Admiral in the military, what you refer to as General in the army. The feud lasted until the end of Lawal's administration.

Olusola Saraki lived until 2012 but Mohammed Lawal died much earlier. Lawal died in 2006, exactly 10 years this month. The opportunity to test their acceptability amongst the people of the state could have happened in 2007. Sadly, death dashed that hope.

Three political parties contested in 2003 gubernatorial election in Kwara State, they were the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) and Alliance for Democracy (AD). The PDP as at that time enjoyed what is known in Nigeria as 'federal might' and the Saraki's structured structure.

The ANPP presented the incumbent but lacked 'essential ingredients' of winning election except liquid cash that it had in surplus. The AD was colored a Yoruba party, yes it was, with governors only in the Southwest and her slogan: AD...Progress...Afenifere... Ire Owo, Afenifere... Ire Omo... Afenifere... Odua O gbe wa o. The party lacked everything but an innovative Campaign.

Now, let's check 2011 and 2015 elections which could be considered as elections that Bukola Saraki put his heart into. Bukola Saraki contested against his father and sister (ACPN) in 2011 when he presented his godson, Gov. Abdulfatah Ahmed. Ahmed won in that election.

Please see below, the 2015 election result in Kwara State:

Presidential
APC - 211, 513 (69.60%)
PDP - 90, 826 (30.31%)

Kwara South Senatorial
APC - 53, 102 (58.61%)
PDP - 44, 862 (41.39%)

Kwara Central Senatorial
APC - 83, 639 (64.89%)
PDP - 44, 862 (34.81%)

Kwara North Senatorial
APC - 60, 385 (69.48%)
PDP - 26, 138 (30.07%)

That was how we voted in the elections held in 2015. Now, let us consider the following:

1. Where can you consider as the strong hold of Saraki in the 3 senatorial districts?

2. Who amongst the 3 senators performed less - attractive in that election?

3. Can you see Buhari's influence helping any of the senatorial candidates since their elections were held on the same day and simultaneously?

These are some of the posers one should direct to the elements that shrouded their shoulders in the past, that they gave everyone living in Kwara State the air to breath. Should Saraki decided to remove the 211, 513 votes in the presidential election, would Buhari have won after polling more 15m votes nationwide? Though that chunk includes my vote, that of my wife and others, so it impossible for Oga to claim ownership of everything.

The southern senatorial interests me, where I see Rafiu Ibrahim scaling the hurdle with abysmal 17.22% which translates to 8,240 votes. That was the poorest. He lost in Ekiti, Oke-Ero, Isin and had a little edge in Irepodun. The wonder that put Rafiu in the Senate came from Ifelodun, Offa and his base Oyun; the earlier 2 LGAs put him in good stead, while he couldn't command same respect in Oyun as those ones did. He lost Erin-Ile wards 1&2.

There were a number of factors that played out in that election. Votes were scarce unlike 2011, card readers checked riggers. Hunting for votes became a primary assignment. Hon. Kayode Omotose and others were deployed to Osun to learn the rope. He reported to the Mandate Campaign team upon return on a Sunday afternoon which I was a member. He told them the truth and it was our strategy in Aregbesola's campaign that was adopted.

We had polling booth committee and canvassers chasing votes, and supervisors monitoring them. It was alien to our co-travellers in the APC and they murmured all through. Our membership registration exposed them - not all wards could finish 200 cards after sending to their people in Lagos. Where were the numbers coming from, in the past?

As for Kwara Central I didn't expect Saraki to score less because a good number of the leaders of PDP in that district meet with Saraki in the night except for the Abdulrasaqs and the Sagayas. Why was is so convenient for a gubernatorial aspirant of PDP to move into the APC between 14th - 25th April, 2015? Why would state youth and women leaders of a party in fierce contest cross carpet at the same time in less than one week?

In 2011, Dr. Yahaya Oloriegbe allegedly won the Kwara Central election until the midnight when the story changed. BBC had announced Oloriegbe as the winner. This is the result, PDP -78, 799; ACN - 53,058; ACPN -42,499; CPC - 5,928. In the gubernatorial election ACN won Ilorin South and lost with about 300 votes in Ilorin West. What happened in Asa was unthinkable but there was a square contest in Ilorin East.

If you argue that Buhari had no influence on Kwara voters, let us check 2011 presidential election result. This is the result, PDP - 268, 243; CPC - 84, 603; ACN - 62,434; ANPP - 1,672.

I will argue that the 83,000 votes were genuine votes coming from the lovers of Buhari. CPC as at then could not afford to post polling agents in all the 193 wards, therefore there were booths without an agent. On 9th of April, 2011 I was in Agunjin ward, and I met Hon. Fatai Akorede in one of the polling booths. I was surprised, I asked him, Egbon why are you alone at this center? He answered me, 'I am here to check the Bororos who may want to vote for CPC'. ACN was on ground but came 3rd in that election. The DG of ANPP presidential campaign is a Kwaran who voted during that election, his party polled ridiculous 1,672 votes.

The streak that has been securing electoral victory for the Sarakis should be known to anyone who wants to make any impact in Kwara politics without their dynasty. To be concluded......

 

Cloud Tag: What's trending

Click on a word/phrase to read more about it.

Kola Olota     Amina Susa\'a De Ahmed     Valsolar Consultoria     Zaratu Umar     KWIRS     Oyedun Juliana Funke     Sadiq Buhari     Saad Omo Iya     Chief Imam Of Lafiagi     Majlis For Sadakah, Zakat And Waqf     Salihu Ajibola Ajia     Eghe Igbinehin     Government House     Rashidi Yekini     ASKOMP     Olomu Of Omu-Aran     Kwara 2015     Olabode George Towoju     Ramat Oganija     Matthew Okedare     Kolawole Bashirat     Kwara State Branch Of The National Library     Abdulrazaq Magaji     Ubandoma     Yusuf Badmus     Shola Odetundun     Quran     Rebecca Bake     Salake     Theophilus Oyebiyi     Iyaloja-General     Awili Pedro     John Mayokun Dada     Umar Bayo Abdulwahab     Abdulsalam A. Yusuf     Stephen Fasakin     Isaac Gbenle     Turaki     Ekiti     CCT     Hamidat Sulyman-Yusuf     Kale Belgore     Kehinde Boyede     Kwara Hotel     Sobi FM     Awodun     Wahab Olasupo Egbewole     Kwara Muslim Pilgrims Welfare Board     Abdulbaqi Jimoh     Orisa Bridge     Tescom.kwarastate.gov.ng     Durbar Festival     IYA YUSUF     Femi Ogunsola     Funmilayo Oniwa     Ophthalmological Society Of Nigeria     Oke-Odo     High Court     Toyosi Thomas     Abdulmumin Yinka Ajia     Ibrahim Mashood     FOMWAN     Damilola Yusuf Adelodun     Abdulraheem Olesin     Shuaib Jawondo     Eleyele     Hassan A. Saliu     Ahmad Olanrewaju Belgore     Yahaya Seriki     Tsaragi-Share     AbdulRasaq Abdulmajeed Alaro     Kubra Kazum     Shuaibu Yaman     Tunde Kazeem     Ayegbeni     Share     KWASEIC    

Cloud Tag: What's trending

Click on a word/phrase to read more about it.

Jani Ibrahim     Ahmed Bolaji Nagode     Ayegbeni     Oro Grammar School Old Students Association     Waziri Yakubu Gobir     Standard Organization Of Nigeria     Olatomiwa Williams     Olabode George Towoju     Abubakar Olusola Saraki     Ayo Adeyemi     Raliat Elelu-Habeeb     Kazeem Gbolagade     Air Peace     University Road     LAK Jimoh     Abdulkarim Adisa     Abdulwahab Oba     Local Government     Awwal Jawondo     Omar Gambari     Afonja Descendants Union     Aliyu Umar     Owode Market     Yusuf Lanre Badmas     Abdulkadri Ahmad Alaiye     Salihu Yahaya     JMK Construction Company Limited     Olam Food Ingredients     Justina Oha     Monthly Sanitation     Allocation     Sa\'adu Salau     Bio Ibrahim     Ilesha-Gwanara     Abdulkadir Jimoh     Isiaka Rafiu Mope     Saheed Akinwumi     2023 Elections     Ayobami Akanbi     Egbejila     Abdulganiyu Oladosu     Donatus Ejidike     David Oyedepo     Towobola Abdulrahman Toyin     Adebayo Salami     Salmon Babatunde Salmon     Oja-Oba     Muhammad Yahya     Durosinlohun Atiku     Ayedun     Adegoke Bamidele     Modibo Kawu     Aremu Bose Deborah     Lateef Fagbemi     Mamman Saba Jibril     Mahmud Babatunde Baker     AbdulFatai Adeniyi Dan-Kazeem     Ilorin Talaka Parapo     Voices Of Tomorrow     Kwara TV     Radio Kwara     Senior Ibrahim Suleiman     IF-K     Tosho Yaqub     Magaji Nda     Olayinka Oladapo Jogunola     Adolescent Girls Initiative For Learning And Empowerment     Abubakar Lah     Aremu Odolaye     KWAFFA     Naira Redesign     Aisha Buhari     Ajikobi     Babatunde Ajeigbe     Atiku     Afolayan     Afolabi-Oshatimehin Adenike Harriet