OPINION: Why Saraki may not rule Kwara again. By Kayode Oyin-Zubair

Date: 2016-10-21

This subject I am sure will upset the status quo and raise dust among the traditionalists in our dear state of Kwara but that can never deter one from doing scientific analysis of our political leanings and voting pattern.

It is a known fact that the 'Saraki political dynasty' led by the old war horse, Olusola Saraki ruled the Kwara political space for a good period of time having mastered the 'psyche' of the people, though Saraki lost elections before 1979. He rode on the back of 'Egbe Onikeke to warm himself into the hearts of the Ilorin indigenes and residents.

The story of how his son and heir apparent, Bukola Saraki became the governor of Kwara State is better said by you. You will recall that the feud that broke out between Olusola Saraki and Mohammed Lawal, the former governor as from 1999 - 2003 was unique on every side. The duo (now in another world) were from Ilorin and generals in their first callings. Saraki was the 'pillar of Kwara politics', and Lawal a former governor and Rear Admiral in the military, what you refer to as General in the army. The feud lasted until the end of Lawal's administration.

Olusola Saraki lived until 2012 but Mohammed Lawal died much earlier. Lawal died in 2006, exactly 10 years this month. The opportunity to test their acceptability amongst the people of the state could have happened in 2007. Sadly, death dashed that hope.

Three political parties contested in 2003 gubernatorial election in Kwara State, they were the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) and Alliance for Democracy (AD). The PDP as at that time enjoyed what is known in Nigeria as 'federal might' and the Saraki's structured structure.

The ANPP presented the incumbent but lacked 'essential ingredients' of winning election except liquid cash that it had in surplus. The AD was colored a Yoruba party, yes it was, with governors only in the Southwest and her slogan: AD...Progress...Afenifere... Ire Owo, Afenifere... Ire Omo... Afenifere... Odua O gbe wa o. The party lacked everything but an innovative Campaign.

Now, let's check 2011 and 2015 elections which could be considered as elections that Bukola Saraki put his heart into. Bukola Saraki contested against his father and sister (ACPN) in 2011 when he presented his godson, Gov. Abdulfatah Ahmed. Ahmed won in that election.

Please see below, the 2015 election result in Kwara State:

Presidential
APC - 211, 513 (69.60%)
PDP - 90, 826 (30.31%)

Kwara South Senatorial
APC - 53, 102 (58.61%)
PDP - 44, 862 (41.39%)

Kwara Central Senatorial
APC - 83, 639 (64.89%)
PDP - 44, 862 (34.81%)

Kwara North Senatorial
APC - 60, 385 (69.48%)
PDP - 26, 138 (30.07%)

That was how we voted in the elections held in 2015. Now, let us consider the following:

1. Where can you consider as the strong hold of Saraki in the 3 senatorial districts?

2. Who amongst the 3 senators performed less - attractive in that election?

3. Can you see Buhari's influence helping any of the senatorial candidates since their elections were held on the same day and simultaneously?

These are some of the posers one should direct to the elements that shrouded their shoulders in the past, that they gave everyone living in Kwara State the air to breath. Should Saraki decided to remove the 211, 513 votes in the presidential election, would Buhari have won after polling more 15m votes nationwide? Though that chunk includes my vote, that of my wife and others, so it impossible for Oga to claim ownership of everything.

The southern senatorial interests me, where I see Rafiu Ibrahim scaling the hurdle with abysmal 17.22% which translates to 8,240 votes. That was the poorest. He lost in Ekiti, Oke-Ero, Isin and had a little edge in Irepodun. The wonder that put Rafiu in the Senate came from Ifelodun, Offa and his base Oyun; the earlier 2 LGAs put him in good stead, while he couldn't command same respect in Oyun as those ones did. He lost Erin-Ile wards 1&2.

There were a number of factors that played out in that election. Votes were scarce unlike 2011, card readers checked riggers. Hunting for votes became a primary assignment. Hon. Kayode Omotose and others were deployed to Osun to learn the rope. He reported to the Mandate Campaign team upon return on a Sunday afternoon which I was a member. He told them the truth and it was our strategy in Aregbesola's campaign that was adopted.

We had polling booth committee and canvassers chasing votes, and supervisors monitoring them. It was alien to our co-travellers in the APC and they murmured all through. Our membership registration exposed them - not all wards could finish 200 cards after sending to their people in Lagos. Where were the numbers coming from, in the past?

As for Kwara Central I didn't expect Saraki to score less because a good number of the leaders of PDP in that district meet with Saraki in the night except for the Abdulrasaqs and the Sagayas. Why was is so convenient for a gubernatorial aspirant of PDP to move into the APC between 14th - 25th April, 2015? Why would state youth and women leaders of a party in fierce contest cross carpet at the same time in less than one week?

In 2011, Dr. Yahaya Oloriegbe allegedly won the Kwara Central election until the midnight when the story changed. BBC had announced Oloriegbe as the winner. This is the result, PDP -78, 799; ACN - 53,058; ACPN -42,499; CPC - 5,928. In the gubernatorial election ACN won Ilorin South and lost with about 300 votes in Ilorin West. What happened in Asa was unthinkable but there was a square contest in Ilorin East.

If you argue that Buhari had no influence on Kwara voters, let us check 2011 presidential election result. This is the result, PDP - 268, 243; CPC - 84, 603; ACN - 62,434; ANPP - 1,672.

I will argue that the 83,000 votes were genuine votes coming from the lovers of Buhari. CPC as at then could not afford to post polling agents in all the 193 wards, therefore there were booths without an agent. On 9th of April, 2011 I was in Agunjin ward, and I met Hon. Fatai Akorede in one of the polling booths. I was surprised, I asked him, Egbon why are you alone at this center? He answered me, 'I am here to check the Bororos who may want to vote for CPC'. ACN was on ground but came 3rd in that election. The DG of ANPP presidential campaign is a Kwaran who voted during that election, his party polled ridiculous 1,672 votes.

The streak that has been securing electoral victory for the Sarakis should be known to anyone who wants to make any impact in Kwara politics without their dynasty. To be concluded......

 

Cloud Tag: What's trending

Click on a word/phrase to read more about it.

Muftau Akanbi Oke     Bureau Of Lands     Kwara Muslim Pilgrims Welfare Board     Abubakar Baba     Moro     Kulende-UITH     Muslimah Entrepreneurship Forum     Amos Justus Sayo     Onilu     Makama Of Ilorin     EFCC     Bluenile Associates     Abdullahi Saadudeen Alikinla     Face Masks     Adamu Atta     Abdulrazaq Solihudeen     Joseph Offorjama     Abiodun Musa Aibinu     Ibikunle Ogunleye     Ahmad Ali     Borgu     Okin Biscuits     Ijagbo     Amina El-Imam     Igbomina     Odolaye Aremu     Olaiya Victor Mobolaji     Baruba     IPSAS     Salami Adekunle     Idi-Ape     March 18     Abegunde Goke     Garba Dogo     Michael Ologundea     Yakubu Shaaba     Olatinwo     Babaita     Kayode Yusuf     Saka Asiat Ayinke     Adewuyi Funmilayo     Raliat Elelu-Habeeb     Hassan Saliu     Owode Market     Bashiru Makama     KWASAA     Tunji Oyawoye     HYPPADEC     Justina Oha     Aisha Abodunrin Ibrahim     Kaiama     Henry Olaosebikan     Quarry Royal Valley     John Mayokun Dada     Adam Abdullahi Al-Ilory     Dan-Kazeem     Kwara Poly     Taofeek Sanusi     Voices Of Tomorrow     Yahaya Muhammad     2017 Budget     Ibrahim Oniye     Nigeria Customs Service     Agor Market     Kale Belgore     Oke-opin     Eleja Taiwo Banu     Olupako     Oro Grammar School     Joseph Bamigboye     Ike Ekweremadu     Kwara 2015     Gbenga Awoyale     Federal College Of Education (Special), Afon     Plat Technologies     Ilorin International Airport     KW-GIS    

Cloud Tag: What's trending

Click on a word/phrase to read more about it.

Halimat Yusuf     Oba Sulaiman Asude     Saliu Mustapha     Buhari     Laboratory-to-Product     Oloruntoyosi Thomas     Ishak Mohammed Sabi     Ayotunde Emmanuel Alao     Gabriel Fashanu     Inside Kwara     Economic And Financial Crimes Commission     Kale Ayo     Toyin Saraki     Idowu Laro     Ahmed     Talaka Parapo     Mutawali     Nagode     Rashidi Yekini     Ahmed Dankaya     Jimoh Bashir     Jani Ibrahim     Ibrahim Abiodun     Salaudeen Oyewale     Kehinde Boyede     Saduki Lafiagi     Mope Dasuki Belgore     Government High School (GHS), Adeta     School Of Nursing     Ethical College     Nigeria Customs Service     Col. Taiwo     Hijab     Umar Bayo Abdulwahab     Mashood Dauda     Ayobami Seriki     Tafida Of Kaiama     KW-GIS     Ahmed Alhasssan     ARMTI     Aro Yahaya     Mukhtar Shagaya     National Information Technology Development Agency     Kwara University Of Education     Ayodele Olaosebikan     Idowu Aremu     Ghali Alaaya     Gbenga Olawepo     JAMB     Ridwan Agboola     Ajibola Ademola Julius     Jawondo     Yahaya Seriki Gambari     Raji Ayodele Kamaldeen     Olabanji Orilonishe     Abdulfatai Baakini     Dan Iya     Mohammed Katsina Ahmed     Federal Neuro-Psychiatric Hospital     Waziri Yakubu Gobir     Olayinka Olaogun     Oro Grammar School     Unicontinental Construction Company     Mogaji Aare     Oba Mogaji Abdulkadir     Monthly Sanitation Exercise     NIRSAL     Sola Saraki University     Col. Ibrahim Taiwo     Victor Gbenga Yusuf     Isiaka Oniwa     Ahmad Olayiwola Kamaldeen     Oba Abdulkadir La\'aro     Bamikole Omishore     Elerinjare-Ibobo     Abdulquawiy Olododo     Rapheal Ashaolu