OPINION: Why Saraki may not rule Kwara again. By Kayode Oyin-Zubair

Date: 2016-10-21

This subject I am sure will upset the status quo and raise dust among the traditionalists in our dear state of Kwara but that can never deter one from doing scientific analysis of our political leanings and voting pattern.

It is a known fact that the 'Saraki political dynasty' led by the old war horse, Olusola Saraki ruled the Kwara political space for a good period of time having mastered the 'psyche' of the people, though Saraki lost elections before 1979. He rode on the back of 'Egbe Onikeke to warm himself into the hearts of the Ilorin indigenes and residents.

The story of how his son and heir apparent, Bukola Saraki became the governor of Kwara State is better said by you. You will recall that the feud that broke out between Olusola Saraki and Mohammed Lawal, the former governor as from 1999 - 2003 was unique on every side. The duo (now in another world) were from Ilorin and generals in their first callings. Saraki was the 'pillar of Kwara politics', and Lawal a former governor and Rear Admiral in the military, what you refer to as General in the army. The feud lasted until the end of Lawal's administration.

Olusola Saraki lived until 2012 but Mohammed Lawal died much earlier. Lawal died in 2006, exactly 10 years this month. The opportunity to test their acceptability amongst the people of the state could have happened in 2007. Sadly, death dashed that hope.

Three political parties contested in 2003 gubernatorial election in Kwara State, they were the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) and Alliance for Democracy (AD). The PDP as at that time enjoyed what is known in Nigeria as 'federal might' and the Saraki's structured structure.

The ANPP presented the incumbent but lacked 'essential ingredients' of winning election except liquid cash that it had in surplus. The AD was colored a Yoruba party, yes it was, with governors only in the Southwest and her slogan: AD...Progress...Afenifere... Ire Owo, Afenifere... Ire Omo... Afenifere... Odua O gbe wa o. The party lacked everything but an innovative Campaign.

Now, let's check 2011 and 2015 elections which could be considered as elections that Bukola Saraki put his heart into. Bukola Saraki contested against his father and sister (ACPN) in 2011 when he presented his godson, Gov. Abdulfatah Ahmed. Ahmed won in that election.

Please see below, the 2015 election result in Kwara State:

Presidential
APC - 211, 513 (69.60%)
PDP - 90, 826 (30.31%)

Kwara South Senatorial
APC - 53, 102 (58.61%)
PDP - 44, 862 (41.39%)

Kwara Central Senatorial
APC - 83, 639 (64.89%)
PDP - 44, 862 (34.81%)

Kwara North Senatorial
APC - 60, 385 (69.48%)
PDP - 26, 138 (30.07%)

That was how we voted in the elections held in 2015. Now, let us consider the following:

1. Where can you consider as the strong hold of Saraki in the 3 senatorial districts?

2. Who amongst the 3 senators performed less - attractive in that election?

3. Can you see Buhari's influence helping any of the senatorial candidates since their elections were held on the same day and simultaneously?

These are some of the posers one should direct to the elements that shrouded their shoulders in the past, that they gave everyone living in Kwara State the air to breath. Should Saraki decided to remove the 211, 513 votes in the presidential election, would Buhari have won after polling more 15m votes nationwide? Though that chunk includes my vote, that of my wife and others, so it impossible for Oga to claim ownership of everything.

The southern senatorial interests me, where I see Rafiu Ibrahim scaling the hurdle with abysmal 17.22% which translates to 8,240 votes. That was the poorest. He lost in Ekiti, Oke-Ero, Isin and had a little edge in Irepodun. The wonder that put Rafiu in the Senate came from Ifelodun, Offa and his base Oyun; the earlier 2 LGAs put him in good stead, while he couldn't command same respect in Oyun as those ones did. He lost Erin-Ile wards 1&2.

There were a number of factors that played out in that election. Votes were scarce unlike 2011, card readers checked riggers. Hunting for votes became a primary assignment. Hon. Kayode Omotose and others were deployed to Osun to learn the rope. He reported to the Mandate Campaign team upon return on a Sunday afternoon which I was a member. He told them the truth and it was our strategy in Aregbesola's campaign that was adopted.

We had polling booth committee and canvassers chasing votes, and supervisors monitoring them. It was alien to our co-travellers in the APC and they murmured all through. Our membership registration exposed them - not all wards could finish 200 cards after sending to their people in Lagos. Where were the numbers coming from, in the past?

As for Kwara Central I didn't expect Saraki to score less because a good number of the leaders of PDP in that district meet with Saraki in the night except for the Abdulrasaqs and the Sagayas. Why was is so convenient for a gubernatorial aspirant of PDP to move into the APC between 14th - 25th April, 2015? Why would state youth and women leaders of a party in fierce contest cross carpet at the same time in less than one week?

In 2011, Dr. Yahaya Oloriegbe allegedly won the Kwara Central election until the midnight when the story changed. BBC had announced Oloriegbe as the winner. This is the result, PDP -78, 799; ACN - 53,058; ACPN -42,499; CPC - 5,928. In the gubernatorial election ACN won Ilorin South and lost with about 300 votes in Ilorin West. What happened in Asa was unthinkable but there was a square contest in Ilorin East.

If you argue that Buhari had no influence on Kwara voters, let us check 2011 presidential election result. This is the result, PDP - 268, 243; CPC - 84, 603; ACN - 62,434; ANPP - 1,672.

I will argue that the 83,000 votes were genuine votes coming from the lovers of Buhari. CPC as at then could not afford to post polling agents in all the 193 wards, therefore there were booths without an agent. On 9th of April, 2011 I was in Agunjin ward, and I met Hon. Fatai Akorede in one of the polling booths. I was surprised, I asked him, Egbon why are you alone at this center? He answered me, 'I am here to check the Bororos who may want to vote for CPC'. ACN was on ground but came 3rd in that election. The DG of ANPP presidential campaign is a Kwaran who voted during that election, his party polled ridiculous 1,672 votes.

The streak that has been securing electoral victory for the Sarakis should be known to anyone who wants to make any impact in Kwara politics without their dynasty. To be concluded......

 

Cloud Tag: What's trending

Click on a word/phrase to read more about it.

Abdullahi Biffo     Unilorin     Isiaka Gold     Oyedun Juliana Funke     Nurudeen Muhammed     Sidikat Uthman Ajibola     Tinubu     AbdulRazaq AbduMajeed Alaro     Seun Bolaji     Ilorin Talaka Parapo     Saka Adeyemo     Amule Elementary School     SGBN     Moro     Abdulmalik Bashir Mopelola Risikatullahi     Special Agro-Industrial Hub     Amuda Bembe     Owo Isowo     Adamu Jemilat-Baki     Omar Bolaji Gambari     Gobir     Aminu Adisa Logun     Ndakene     Joseph Daudu     Saraki     Monthly Sanitation     Esinniobiwa Quareeb     Salmon Babatunde Salmon     Rachael Obisesan     Government Girls’ Day Secondary School Pakata     Bolakale Kawu     Kayode Alabi     Niyi Osundare     Ile Arugbo     Tunde Yusuf     Durbar Festival     Bello Bature     Lola Ashiru     Salihu Jibril Garbi     Mohammed Ajia Ibrahim     IsDB     Funke Adedoyin     Quareeb Islamic Association     Ibrahim Jawondo     Otoge     Aliyu Umar     Saka Isau     Alore     Isau     Offa Poly     Haliru Dantoro     Sunday Fagbemi     Tunji Ajanaku     Afusat Nike Ibrahim     Kwha.gov.ng     Ambassador Kayode Laro     Oluwole Dupe     Risikat Lawal     Mary Kemi Adeosun     Olabode Towoju     Ajike People Support Centre     Shehu Alimi Foundation For Peace And Development     Shero     Yusuf Abdulkadir     Road Transport Employers Association Of Nigeria     CELF     Atunwa     Timothy Akangbe     CUTI     Ahmad Fatima Bisola     Talaka Parapo     Eruku     Ishola Balogun Fulani     Abdulsalam Firdaous Amosa     Aliyu Salihu     NaAllah     Sheikh Ariyibi    

Cloud Tag: What's trending

Click on a word/phrase to read more about it.

AbdulGaniyu Kareem     Special Agro-industrial Processing Zone     Oko     Government High School Adeta     Nigeria Foundation For Artificial Intelligence     New Nigeria People’s Party     Temitope Ogunbanke     Kolawole Bashirat     Trader Moni     Oyedun Juliana Funke     ENetSuD     Abdulhakeem Amao     Musa Alhassan Buge     Olokoba Abdullahi Ayinla     Dele Belgore     Saka Asiat Ayinke     Ndama Al-hassan     Abubakar Imam     Rapheal Ashaolu     Hamid Bobboyi     Awwal Jawondo     Kawu Baraje     Razaq Atunwa     Sadiq Umar     Susan Modupe Oluwole     Umar Bayo Abdulwahab     Adama Isa     Arandun     Olukotun Of Ikotun     Peter Obi     Lasiele Alabi Yahaya     Baakini     Omar Gambari     Fareedah Dankaka     Olatunji Ayeni     Bello Bature     Volunteers Of Ilorin Community And The Emirate     Folorunsho Erubu     Neuropsychiatric Hospital     Ministry Of Women Affairs And Social Development     John Dara     Alabi Lawal     Yusuf Amuda Gobir     Ilorin Emirate Staff Association     Adekunle David Dunmade     Ghali Alaaya     Ahmed Dankaya     Gbemi Saraki     Yahaya Jibril Usman     Abdulkadir Jimoh     John Olobayo     Makama Of Ilorin     Umar Yakubu Jaja     Shonga     Oke-Kura     Senior Ibrahim Suleiman     Danhawa     Kamaldeen Gambari     Muyiwa Oladipo Kanu     Dauda Adesola     20 Billion Bond     Nigeria Computer Society     Share/Tsaragi     Ayinde Oki     Obayomi Azeez     Durbar     Logun     COVID     Gobir Organization Foundation     Park     Aminu Ado Bayero     Yusuf A. Usman     11th Galadima     Eleja     Shehu Adaramaja     Abdulmumini AbdulRazaq     Muhammed Abdullahi