OPINION: Why Saraki may not rule Kwara again. By Kayode Oyin-Zubair

Date: 2016-10-21

This subject I am sure will upset the status quo and raise dust among the traditionalists in our dear state of Kwara but that can never deter one from doing scientific analysis of our political leanings and voting pattern.

It is a known fact that the 'Saraki political dynasty' led by the old war horse, Olusola Saraki ruled the Kwara political space for a good period of time having mastered the 'psyche' of the people, though Saraki lost elections before 1979. He rode on the back of 'Egbe Onikeke to warm himself into the hearts of the Ilorin indigenes and residents.

The story of how his son and heir apparent, Bukola Saraki became the governor of Kwara State is better said by you. You will recall that the feud that broke out between Olusola Saraki and Mohammed Lawal, the former governor as from 1999 - 2003 was unique on every side. The duo (now in another world) were from Ilorin and generals in their first callings. Saraki was the 'pillar of Kwara politics', and Lawal a former governor and Rear Admiral in the military, what you refer to as General in the army. The feud lasted until the end of Lawal's administration.

Olusola Saraki lived until 2012 but Mohammed Lawal died much earlier. Lawal died in 2006, exactly 10 years this month. The opportunity to test their acceptability amongst the people of the state could have happened in 2007. Sadly, death dashed that hope.

Three political parties contested in 2003 gubernatorial election in Kwara State, they were the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) and Alliance for Democracy (AD). The PDP as at that time enjoyed what is known in Nigeria as 'federal might' and the Saraki's structured structure.

The ANPP presented the incumbent but lacked 'essential ingredients' of winning election except liquid cash that it had in surplus. The AD was colored a Yoruba party, yes it was, with governors only in the Southwest and her slogan: AD...Progress...Afenifere... Ire Owo, Afenifere... Ire Omo... Afenifere... Odua O gbe wa o. The party lacked everything but an innovative Campaign.

Now, let's check 2011 and 2015 elections which could be considered as elections that Bukola Saraki put his heart into. Bukola Saraki contested against his father and sister (ACPN) in 2011 when he presented his godson, Gov. Abdulfatah Ahmed. Ahmed won in that election.

Please see below, the 2015 election result in Kwara State:

Presidential
APC - 211, 513 (69.60%)
PDP - 90, 826 (30.31%)

Kwara South Senatorial
APC - 53, 102 (58.61%)
PDP - 44, 862 (41.39%)

Kwara Central Senatorial
APC - 83, 639 (64.89%)
PDP - 44, 862 (34.81%)

Kwara North Senatorial
APC - 60, 385 (69.48%)
PDP - 26, 138 (30.07%)

That was how we voted in the elections held in 2015. Now, let us consider the following:

1. Where can you consider as the strong hold of Saraki in the 3 senatorial districts?

2. Who amongst the 3 senators performed less - attractive in that election?

3. Can you see Buhari's influence helping any of the senatorial candidates since their elections were held on the same day and simultaneously?

These are some of the posers one should direct to the elements that shrouded their shoulders in the past, that they gave everyone living in Kwara State the air to breath. Should Saraki decided to remove the 211, 513 votes in the presidential election, would Buhari have won after polling more 15m votes nationwide? Though that chunk includes my vote, that of my wife and others, so it impossible for Oga to claim ownership of everything.

The southern senatorial interests me, where I see Rafiu Ibrahim scaling the hurdle with abysmal 17.22% which translates to 8,240 votes. That was the poorest. He lost in Ekiti, Oke-Ero, Isin and had a little edge in Irepodun. The wonder that put Rafiu in the Senate came from Ifelodun, Offa and his base Oyun; the earlier 2 LGAs put him in good stead, while he couldn't command same respect in Oyun as those ones did. He lost Erin-Ile wards 1&2.

There were a number of factors that played out in that election. Votes were scarce unlike 2011, card readers checked riggers. Hunting for votes became a primary assignment. Hon. Kayode Omotose and others were deployed to Osun to learn the rope. He reported to the Mandate Campaign team upon return on a Sunday afternoon which I was a member. He told them the truth and it was our strategy in Aregbesola's campaign that was adopted.

We had polling booth committee and canvassers chasing votes, and supervisors monitoring them. It was alien to our co-travellers in the APC and they murmured all through. Our membership registration exposed them - not all wards could finish 200 cards after sending to their people in Lagos. Where were the numbers coming from, in the past?

As for Kwara Central I didn't expect Saraki to score less because a good number of the leaders of PDP in that district meet with Saraki in the night except for the Abdulrasaqs and the Sagayas. Why was is so convenient for a gubernatorial aspirant of PDP to move into the APC between 14th - 25th April, 2015? Why would state youth and women leaders of a party in fierce contest cross carpet at the same time in less than one week?

In 2011, Dr. Yahaya Oloriegbe allegedly won the Kwara Central election until the midnight when the story changed. BBC had announced Oloriegbe as the winner. This is the result, PDP -78, 799; ACN - 53,058; ACPN -42,499; CPC - 5,928. In the gubernatorial election ACN won Ilorin South and lost with about 300 votes in Ilorin West. What happened in Asa was unthinkable but there was a square contest in Ilorin East.

If you argue that Buhari had no influence on Kwara voters, let us check 2011 presidential election result. This is the result, PDP - 268, 243; CPC - 84, 603; ACN - 62,434; ANPP - 1,672.

I will argue that the 83,000 votes were genuine votes coming from the lovers of Buhari. CPC as at then could not afford to post polling agents in all the 193 wards, therefore there were booths without an agent. On 9th of April, 2011 I was in Agunjin ward, and I met Hon. Fatai Akorede in one of the polling booths. I was surprised, I asked him, Egbon why are you alone at this center? He answered me, 'I am here to check the Bororos who may want to vote for CPC'. ACN was on ground but came 3rd in that election. The DG of ANPP presidential campaign is a Kwaran who voted during that election, his party polled ridiculous 1,672 votes.

The streak that has been securing electoral victory for the Sarakis should be known to anyone who wants to make any impact in Kwara politics without their dynasty. To be concluded......

 

Cloud Tag: What's trending

Click on a word/phrase to read more about it.

Abdulrasheed Na\'Allah     Abdulrauf Aliyu     Adesoye     AbdulRaheem Ahmad Shayi     Mukhtar Shagaya     Kubra Kazum     Special Adviser On Digital Innovation     Egbejila     Saka Keji     Saliu Ajia     Bola Sagaya     Elerin Of Adanla Irese     Offa Poly     Elerin Of Adanla     Ibrahim Issa Jetti     Pacify Labs     Raymond Olaitan     Shao     Fatimat Saliu     Kwara Apc     Sheikh Ridhwanullah     Hassan Saliu     Tunji Arosanyin     Ridhwanullah Al-Ilory     Olayinka Jelili Yusuf     Toun Okewale-Sonaiya     GGDSS Pakata     CT Ayeni     Ethical College     Shuaib Olarongbe     Elerinjare     Ibikunle Ogunleye     Rafiu Ibrahim     Nurudeen Muhammed     Hakeem Idris     Sanusi Abubakar     ARMTI     Mahmud Babatunde Baker     Muhammadu Buhari     Muslim Cementary     Omupo     Ella Supreme Tissue Paper     Sulaiman Gado     Sarah Jubril     Maigida Soludero Transit     Ajase-Ipo     Sidikat Akaje     Ilorin Muslim Community     Wasiu Onidugbe     Femi Gbajabiamila     Azeez Salawu     Aminu Ado Bayero     Photo News     Basic Education Certificate Examination     Owu Fall     Yusuf Abdulwahab     Toyin Falola     Olupako     Yusuf Arowosaye     Saka Isau     Muhammad-Mustapha Suleiman     Oloye     Toyin Sanusi     Amosa     AGM Professional Services     Kolawole Akande     Balogun Gambari     Air Peace     Muhammed Danjuma     Umar Yakubu Jaja     Suleiman Abubakar     Yakubu Mohammed Abdullahi     Shoprite     Mary Arinde     Clara Nwachukwu     Muhammed Abdullahi     Congress For National Consensus    

Cloud Tag: What's trending

Click on a word/phrase to read more about it.

Ibrahim Abdulqadir Abikan     Olateju Lukman     SDP     Orisa Bridge     Yahaya Dumoye     Issa Memunat Moyosore     Ajeigbe     Abubakar Baba     Samuel Elizabeth Keatswa     Abdulkadir Akanbi-Oke     Ganiyu Abolarin     Ayo Adeyemi     ER-KANG Mining     Oke-Odo     Jide Ashonibare     Olomu Of Omu-Aran     Kwara State Printing And Publishing Corporation     Sheu Ndanusa Usman     ANCOPPS     Mansur Alfanla     Chief Imam Of Lafiagi     Abubakar Bature Sulu-Gambari     Offa Poly     Kola Shittu     Council Of The Wise     National Pilot     Isiaq Khadeejah     Yekeen Alabi     SUBEB     Abdulwahab Ololele     Bello Bature     Elewu     Tosin Saraki     Makama     Bilikisu Oniyangi     Alloy Chukwuemeka     Abraham Ojo     Amoyo     Agboola Abdulraheem     Umar Sanda Yusuf     Ajibola Ademola Julius     Wahab Kunle Shittu     Voices Of Tomorrow     Christopher Tunji Ayeni     Abubakar B.M     Kwara State Branch Of The National Library     Erin-ile     David Oyerinola Adedunmoye     Bibire Ajape     College Of Arabic And Islamic Legal Studies     Abdulkareem Alabi     Salau Kabiru Abdullahi     TESCOM 2025     Akanji     Shehu Adaramaja     Okin Biscuits     Tanke Flyover Bridge     Centre For Digital Economy     Gabriel Fashanu     Ibrahim Orire     Yusuf Ali     Bolakale Kawu     Mopelola Abdulmaliq-Bashir     Atunwa     Ahmed Idris Mohammed     Apaola     Ahmad Olayiwola Kamaldeen     RTEAN     Oasis Muslim Care Foundation     Kwara Metro Park     Abdulrauf Aliyu     Lafia Aliyu Korasabi     Shao     Shettima Of Ilorin     Neo Mundo Ltd     Kayode Alabi     Tsado Manman