Nigerians spoke so loud and so eloquently on March 28 and April 11 that no one could mistake their position on the way forward. Except for the 1993 presidential election, at no other time in the national history did the people achieve near unanimity in deciding the preferred direction of governance. Out of the six geo-political zones, four voted for a change. The 2015 mandate is even superior to the 1993 mandate because, it was not restricted to the presidential election. In the aborted Third Republic, the NRC was stronger in the governorship and House of Assembly elections held in the North West, South East and South South, while the SDP held sway in the South West, North Central and the North East. Besides, the SDP only held a narrow majority in the National Assembly. It took the personality of the late Chief Moshood Abiola to revive the political standing of the SDP in the presidential election. He defeated the NRC presidential candidate, Alhaji Bashir Tofa in his home state, Kano, and changed the tide in the South South and the South East.

But, this time, President Muhammadu Buhari was not the singular factor in swinging the election in the APC direction. The same candidate who could not penetrate the South West in 2011, won handsomely in five of the six states in the zone this year. In the North Central where there has been an age-long anti-Fulani sentiment, despite the heavy deployment of religion as a weapon of the electoral battle, the APC held its own, even in Benue State.

In this piece, I am paying attention to the changing political behaviour in the South East, South West, North West and North Central. It is a fact that the North West and the South west have always stood on opposite sides of the dais. In the First Republic, the North West was the bastion of the NPC's support. It had no representation whatsoever in the West. The trend continued in the Second Republic when the UPN was the choice of the people, with Chief Obafemi Awolowo winning an average 80 per cent of the votes in the region.

The scenario in the Central Belt has been particularly interesting. In the First Republic, there was a fierce resistance to what was dubbed Hausa-Fulani domination of the Northern Region. As a result, the middle belt constituted itself into an opposition under the leadership of the late J. S. Tarka on the platform of the UMBC. The party entered into an alliance with the West-based Action Group. It led to the famous (or infamous Tiv riots of 1961.)

However, there was a slight change in the Second Republic as Tarka had gone into the NPN, believing that he would be handed the party's presidential ticket on a platter of gold. He played into the hands of the Kaduna mafia and had to settle for a senatorial seat. He died a broken man within two years of that dispensation. Kwara narrowly went to the NPN, Plateau gravitated towards the Eastern-based NPP, while Niger State was a solid ground for the NPN. In the Third Republic, Benue, Plateau and Kwara Kwara aligned again with the West in the SDP, while Niger and the newly created Kogi found the NPC attractive.

In the East, the people have always made efforts to work with what is considered the dominant national political party. In the First Republic, what dictated their political behaviour was the Awo-Zik feud. The NCNC which dominated the region’s political scene chose to align with the conservative NPC. It was more of the junior partner in the Balewa administration. It felt comfortable with being offered the sinecure position of a ceremonial President. It, however, did not take long before the people realized that they had been handed the short end of the stick. The party split, with the West branch teaming up with the Akintola faction of the AG that sought and obtained a place in the NPC dominated federal government.

The Michael Okpara-led eastern wing struck up an alliance with the Awolowo faction of the AG to form the UPGA alliance ahead of the 1964 federal elections that was massively rigged by the Sardauna-Akintola-Okotie-Eboh-Fani-Kayode NNA. In the Second Republic, the East went along with Zik into the NPP, but soon, as was the case in the First republic, romped into an alliance with the NPN in order to have a piece of the national cake. In the Third Republic, the east was solidly NRC zone. The party was seen as Northern-dominated and thus waiting to form the government.

By the 2015 elections, a lot has changed. An understanding of the current situation, what has changed and the movements would help in analyzing what to expect in the days ahead, especially in view of the fragility of the APC and the lack of doctrinal anchor in the PDP.

This will form the basis of the second part of this analysis of the undercurrents of Nigerian politics.