"The election of a Peoples Democratic Party senator as deputy Senate President is evidently a grand conspiracy to sabotage the Buhari government." Senator Kabiru Marafa, PUNCH, June 22, 2015, p 7.

In Europe, the 100 years war started one day and with a single shot fired. The Awolowo versus Akintola-Fani-Kayode conflict started in 1963, fifty-two years ago, and it is still being fought by proxies. GEJ's last minute attempt to rescue the South West, in the last election, only rekindled the embers of ongoing battle. In Europe as in the WILD WILD WEST of Nigeria, the struggle started with charges of betrayal or sabotage by the leaders of the group against a breakaway group.

"Better a declared enemy than a doubtful ally." Napoleon, 1769-1821, (VANGUARD BOOK OF QUOTATIONS, VBQ, p 48). Napoleon should know; his attempt to become the Emperor of all of Europe from the Mediterranean to Russia was frustrated by traitors. Before him, another great warrior, Frederick the Great, 1712-1786, of Prussia, was saved from humiliating defeat by what historians remember as the "reversal of alliances". The Senate vote which brought in Saraki as President, has several elements of these historical precedents and it will create its own lasting enmities – perhaps beyond the next twenty years; given the age of some of the gladiators now ready for battle. It will be a media war, but undoubtedly supported by other means, and it will be relentless.

Last week, four distinct groups were identified - each of which will henceforth be busy trying to persuade "Fellow Nigerians" that their own cause is the just one. Of the four groups, the ACN/Tinubu machine has the advantage at the moment. It was their media machine which was used to fight the media war against the PDP. They remain totally loyal to their Leader. There is nothing strange about that. Awolowo and Azikiwe used the TRIBUNE and the WEST AFRICAN PILOT to prosecute their own political wars in the 1950s to 1960s. Awolowo's "war" engine remains till today. It merely lacks another "Awo" and has lost its relevance. A war machine without a Supreme Commander is useless. The Asiwaju group has both – a formidable arsenal and a Commander/Strategist. It would be extremely foolish to under-rate them even after they were caught with their "pants" down on the Senate vote. In the Yom Kippur War of 1973, the Arabs also had a temporary upper hand against the Israelis; but it ended in another victory for Israel; because a disciplined "army" is tough to beat.

Meanwhile, none of the other groups has its own war machine. Their reliance on the Asiwaju network now leaves them at a disadvantage. Like the Allied Powers, at the beginning of the Second World War, they will have to build up their own media army or get wiped out eventually.

BAIL-OUT FOR STATES AND THE GLOBAL APPROACH

"Lenders [to Greece] are demanding reforms in exchange for emergency funds [bail-out]." News Report.

Greece, an entire nation, like several Nigerian states, is asking the rest of Europe for a bail-out. It is basic economics that when any political entity (nation, state, region, council etc) spends itself into penury and must seek bail-out, it must also surrender part of its freedom to make economic decisions. Nigeria had this experience during the Babangida administration when we could not pay our external loans, as and when due. To reschedule our loans, the International Monetary Fund, IMF, acting as intermediary between us and creditors imposed conditions we must accept for the loans to be rolled over. IMF even posted monitors to the Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN, to enforce the conditions. That is the global method of dealing with bail-outs. Beggars lose their dignity and freedom of action.

Therefore, if at all the Federal Government will consider a bail-out for the states, it must be on condition that the states must accept Monitors appointed by the Federal Government who will control their expenditures until they are out of the woods. In other words, the Governors, Commissioners and State Assembly will be supervised by an independent individual who will exercise veto power on expenditures.

Governors who refuse that condition can go and solve their own problems as best as they can. But, they should receive no bail-out. Twenty-two government cars were recovered from the wives of the former Bauchi State Governor Yisa Yuguda; eleven from his first wife alone. This cannot be regarded as immunity or impunity. This is delirium of power bordering on economic lunacy. His was probably not the worst example as we will soon discover – even among states asking for bail-out. That is why they must surrender their immunity to Supervisors. Beggars cannot choose.