Date: 2015-05-13

The reality has begun to dawn on the All Progressives Congress (APC), Nigeria's new ruling party on the bloc. It is the reality of the new dawn; the reality of the change they so seek. This new reality is typified by its size and highlighted by its attendant contradictions. The leadership of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) battled this oversize syndrome for sixteen years and was consumed by the multi-faceted internal contradictions despite aspiring to be in the saddle for sixty years. The PDP, as a result, appeared impossible until it was shown the way out in this year's general election.

It is not surprising, therefore, to see that since the APC victory at the elections, especially with its dominance at all levels, the issue of how the party manages its victory had elicited interest amongst the observing public.

When it filtered out Wednesday, April 22 that there was an all-crucial meeting over zoning and power sharing, where all the major stakeholders were present, a majority of Nigerians were interested in the outcome of the meeting, especially the attempt to resolve the differences among some of the major actors.

The meeting held at the Rivers State Governor's Lodge, in Abuja was deadlocked despite the fact that the President-elect, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari; Vice-president-elect, Yemi Osinbajo; Senator Bola Tinubu; governors-elect, senators-elect and other executive officers of the party were present.

Though the meeting was said to have agreed on the zoning of the office of the Senate President to the North-central and the Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF), to the South-east, tussle between North-east and South-west leaders over who emerges the Speaker of the House of Representatives between Hon. Femi Gbajabiamila and Hon. Yakubu Dogara was largely responsible for the stalemate.

Reports had it that the issue had also widened the gulf between some of the party leaders, who have been in opposing camps within the fold, as the Abuja meeting reportedly degenerated into verbal attacks over the speakership and senate presidency.

The Power Blocs

Although the APC merger went through rather seamlessly, the interplay of interests that seem to character it since its victory at the election are indicative of what to expect in no distant future. Already, there are emerging power blocs struggling to outplay one and other as the party seeks to settle down.

There is the Buhari-Northern bloc, which consists of the president-elect and his supporters, some of whom have been with him for almost 12 years and collapsed their structures into the APC during the merger process. There is also the Tinubu-South-west which has the former Lagos State governor has its arrowhead. And the group of former Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) governors, who defected to the APC in 2013, led by the Rivers State Governor, Chibuike Amaechi and former Kwara State governor, Senator Bukola Saraki.

It is a known fact that there is no love lost between the Tinubu and the governors blocs. While the Tinubu camp initially preferred the Senate Minority Leader, Senator George Akume, as the new Senate President, the governors' bloc would rather Saraki. There is no denying the fact that in determining those who will emerge principal officers in the next National Assembly, the camps will depend on compromises, consensuses and horse-trading with others.

The North-east bloc is equally strong. They have their eyes on the Senate President and enjoy the backing of the former vice-president, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar. They desire that the APC zones the position to their region and feel that they are the most politically marginalised zone in the country.

The Plot against Saraki

In politics, it is commonplace that there are no permanent friends or enemies, but interest. It is believed that the Tinubu group is not comfortable with the choice of Saraki and this, they attribute to their claim that he is a Yoruba man even though from the North Central and that it could undermine the chances of the South-west leaders, particularly Tinubu, if elected Senate President.

The fact that Hon. Gbajabiamila is strongly in contention for the speakership speaks volume. First, it's an indication that the forces in Lagos are ready to throw their weight behind any other non-Yoruba candidate for the Senate President, to secure the speakership for Gbajabiamila, who is more entrenched in the Lagos-South-west caucus as one of the main legacy parties that formed the APC.

The anti-Saraki forces are also of the views that a Yoruba Senate president would be a hard sell to the nation because of the choice of Osinbajo as vice-president-elect, also being a Yoruba man from Ogun State, South-west. It is the more reason Akume was initially considered their best bet before the emergence of Senator Ahmed Lawan.

Reports that Tinubu's wife, Senator Remi openly showed support for Lawan is believed to have changed the equation as well as undermined the North Central's chances of clinching the position. It is on these grounds that the North-central considers Tinubu as too manipulative of the system, with little consideration for the input of the zone to the success of the party at the just concluded election.

Pondering the Tambuwal Debacle

In view of the subsisting stalemate, some individuals in the party are already worried about the possible reenactment of the nature of politics that threw up Hon. Aminu Tambuwal as the Speaker of the House of Representatives in 2011.

In 2011, members of the lower chamber had elected the principal officers in deviance to the PDP zoning arrangement, which had proposed that the two offices be zoned to the South-west and the North-east respectively.

Tambuwal scored 252 votes to beat his opponent, the PDP candidate, Hon. Mulikat Akande-Adeola (PDP-Oyo) who scored 90 votes. But that feat was only achievable because the APC members in the house had collapsed their camp into Tambuwal's.

The outgoing Speaker himself never shied away from admitting that he became speaker basically with the opposition's support. He once revealed that the support of the opposition leaders in the country, including the Governor of Osun State, Mr. Rauf Aregbesola, contributed to his emergence as the Speaker of the House during an event in Osogbo.

But the current stalemate had begun to generate concern amongst the major stakeholders in the party, who regularly refer to the Tambuwal experience. For instance, the Kano State Governor and Senator-elect, Kano Central district, Alhaji Rabiu Musa Kwakwanso, who was worried by the development, said it is important that the APC leadership takes urgent actions that would not make the party resort to the fate of the PDP over the issue of power sharing.

He averred that it was that same mistake that led to the bickering and bitterness that consumed the outgoing PDP-led government. Renowned legal practitioner and Deputy Director-General, Governor Ibikunle Amosun Campaign Organisation, Chief Bisi Adegbuyi, who expressed optimism that his party would overcome the zoning issue, also called for caution so that the party does not put itself in the path of destruction as the PDP did.

"I believe the leadership of the party is equal to the task and they will adopt the right model in filling the positions of the Senate President, Speaker and all other crucial posts. I'm not unmindful of the challenges that are ahead of us, but we must check very carefully so that we don't go the way of PDP.

"In filling sensitive positions, we must look at the character and integrity of the persons that we want to put in positions of power. They must be people, who in the court of public opinion are people of integrity. I know that APC is a mix of the conservatives and the progressives in fulfillment of the prophecy of the late Obafemi Awolowo, when he said at a point in Nigeria there would be the interplay of the forces of antithesis and the thesis, which would eventually produce a synthesis.

"Put in another form, conservatives and progressives would find equilibrium - an ideal situation or the right mix that would deliver Nigeria from the shackles of oppression, poverty and misgovernance. In doing this, we must be very careful not to turn Nigeria into a one-party state. It would not augur well for this country. Multi-party system is the best for Nigeria," he said.

Politics of the Stalemate

Whilst the stalemate lingers, a lot is also going on underground but unknown even to a majority of party members. As it is today, the impression out there is that Buhari does not have a candidate and that Tinubu is the one pushing for Lawan as the Senate President. Unfortunately, the contrary is the case. Ssources hinted THISDAY that Lawan is the natural candidate of Buhari while Akume is Tinubu's choice.

However, Tinubu's ability to read the body language of the president-elect and not wanting to go on a collision course with Buhari was said to have propelled his adopting Lawan as his preferred candidate, although not without an ulterior motive.

But Tinubu's adoption of Lawan and his subsequent appropriation as his brain child is said to be convenient for Buhari, who does not care how Lawan emerges but desires result. Besides, he does not want his hands seen since he had given his words to stay neutral. And for Tinubu, the choice of a Lawan from North-east is believed would enhance the chances of his own candidate for the speakership in South-west.

Another reason the stalemate has lingered is because the party chairman, Chief John Oyegun and the governors of the party have not hidden their support for Saraki as their choice senate president and had taken a step further by zoning it to North Central, where Saraki hails from. Thus, reconciling the differences in interests is the reason the stalemate appears impossible and a crisis on the hand of the APC.

Lessons from the PDP

Clearly, the election of principal officers into the two chambers of the National Assembly may not go without serious challenges in view of the prevailing development. But more than anything else, it appears the political class has learnt not very well. What is presently going on in the APC is more or less a replay of the PDP episode of 2011. The party had zoned the position of speaker to the South-west, but most of the lawmakers frowned at it and went ahead to do otherwise.

The PDP wanted the current House Leader, Mulikat Akande-Adeola to be speaker, but as it turned out, she lost woefully to Tambuwal, who 'rebelled' against the party's power sharing arrangement. The party had equally zoned the deputy speaker's position to the North-east, but the lawmakers defied that order and voted Emeke Ihedioha from the South-east.

But Tambuwa's emergence was not made possible only by the PDP lawmakers but worked in collaboration with other members, mostly of the ACN extraction. This pulled off through what the lawmakers termed the 'House Project' at that time. The idea of the 'House Project' was to allow the lawmakers choose their leaders by themselves without any external interference.

In electing Tambuwal as speaker, the lawmakers said they relied on merit and competence. Based on this, the APC lawmakers are battle ready to slug it out with the party's godfathers as they are already campaigning to the party leadership to allow them elect their leaders without any interference.

Some of them are of the views that even if the party zones the key positions in the chambers to certain geo-political zones, they should be allowed to select the candidates of their choice, particularly the Senate President, Deputy Senate President, Speaker and the deputy speaker of the House of Representatives, as they would not accept imposition.

Last week, the APC NWC at its meeting resolved to zone the speaker's position to the South-west and that of the deputy speaker to the South-south. This arrangement now awaits ratification from the party's National Executive Committee (NEC) any time this week.

But political observers argue that the same APC that threw its presidential slot open cannot be said to be considering zoning any position, particularly in the National Assembly to any region. They argue that in the run up to its national convention to produce its presidential candidate in December last year, five aspirants vied for the position, with most of them from the North.

The aspirants were Muhammadu Buhari, Atiku Abubakar, Governor Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, Governor Rochas Okorocha and Sam Nda-Isaiah. While Buhari and Kwankwaso are from the North-west, Atiku is from the North-east and Nda-Isaiah is from the North-central. Only Okorocha hails from the South-east. In the end, Buhari emerged the party's candidate and eventually won the presidential election in March.

Some lawmakers argue that since the party left the contest for its presidential candidate open, giving all members the right to contest, it should equally allow the lawmakers choose their leaders.

Even though APC is said to have firm control over its members, it is believed that should the party insist on imposing leaders on the lawmakers, the Tambuwal scenario may be repeated. In the event that the APC retains the Senate presidency in the North East to favour Lawan, then a more popular candidate may be encouraged to fight for the position at inauguration, when elections of presiding officers are conducted.

Another fear is that should the APC retain the top position in the Senate in the North Central, a small group of disgruntled party members may encourage Mark, who is reportedly still interested in the position, to throw his hat into the ring in June and align to deliver their votes to the opposition. If the APC leadership insists on imposition, then it should be prepared for a shocker. This is because the PDP will be waiting to pounce on any crack to its advantage.

Political analysts have warned that Buhari, Oyegun and Tinubu should bear in mind that any attempt to truncate the ranking rule and legislative experience in the chamber would lead to upheaval and cause a return to the 1999-2003 era when the Senate president's seat was a musical chair of sorts.

As the battle continues, analysts believe that should the APC insist on zoning the seat, it may earn for itself disrespect from the lawmakers, just the way it happened to the PDP in 2011.

Now, the Gladiators

For both the office of the Senate President and Speaker, two persons each are prominently vying for the offices. Although there may be more, with time, as it is, the four below are the main contenders with increasing support base.

Bukola Saraki

On personal recognition and record between Saraki and Lawan, Saraki appears the leading contender, with a majority of the odds in his favour. Aside from the fact that he's most liked by a majority of senators, Saraki has his hope partly hinged on the new PDP. Saraki can be sure of support from South-south and South-east senators for many considerations, especially the factor of interest. Although he may not have the support of the party leadership, he still stands on very strong footing, since the party leadership is already divided.

Buhari's classified interest in Lawan could though be a minus for Saraki, since he has more senators who feel comfortable with him than they do with Lawan, he stands a better chance. However, having burnt the bridge with his old party, the PDP, Saraki may not get the kind of support he looks forward to from the PDP lawmakers and this seems to be happening already.

Ahmad Lawan

Lacking popularity or basic appeal, Lawan and his colleagues from the North East are said to be leveraging on the ambition of vendetta from an aggrieved PDP. There are reports that Lawan and his group are also relying on support from Senate President David Mark and 47 other PDP members to press forward their case for the need to compensate a short-changed North East zone. This alliance may probably work since the zone has felt marginalised in political office sharing since 1999, and more so because the PDP, following the loss of the executive and legislature during the just concluded 2015 general election, may want to get back at the now ruling APC.

One development which also confirms the allegation that Akume may have been edged out of the contest is the news that 12 out of the 13 newly elected senators from the South-west have adopted Lawan as their candidate for the Senate President position in the 8th National Assembly. Having realised that Akume wouldn't make it against Saraki, APC leaders from the South-west may have decided on Lawan rather than let Saraki have it.

Above all, Lawan is said to have the full backing of Buhari, although from the background. While Buhari wants to be seen as the father of all and not offend the sensibilities of the others, he is said to be strongly in support of Lawan and his foot soldiers have subsequently instructed all to take note of his body language as far as the Senate Presidency is concerned.

In the House of Representatives, the battle for the speakership has seen six members indicate interest in the position. The initial six were Abdulmumin Jibrin from Kano (North West), Yakubu Dogara from Bauchi (North East), Femi Gbajabiamila from Lagos (South West), Mohammed Monguno from Borno (North East), Pally Iriase from Edo State (South South) and Israel Ajibola Famurewa from Osun State (South West). Currently, out of these six, only two are top contenders: Gbajabiamila and Dogara.

Femi Gbajabiamila

Gbajabiamila is the House Minority Leader, and a senior lawmaker to Dogara, having been in the House since 2003. He may not be the first choice of several of his colleagues, but he's said to have the backing of Tinubu. As expected, a majority of the lawmakers from the South-west are equally backing him.

Also, twenty caucus members of the House of Representatives from the North-central zone are said to have endorsed Gbajabiamila for the position of speaker, after eight of their own in a statement had come out to say that the caucus had endorsed Dogara for same position. The new 20 members coming out for Gbajabiamila were to deny the statement from the eight.

That notwithstanding, the fear that Gbajabiamila may be subservient to Tinubu is what is making an easy job difficult for Gbajabiamila. A more popular candidate than Dogara and even senior in the House, the position would have been a walkover for Gbajabiamila if his apron was not rumoured to be tied to Tinubu. This could be his undoing and Dogara's victory.

To dispel this rumour, Gbajabiamila has taken to campaign for votes from among his colleagues. Sensing failure in relying on Tinubu to deliver the speakership to him, he's been meeting with fellow House members and soliciting personally for their support.

Yakubu Dogara

Dogara has the support of lawmakers from the North Central zone. House of Representatives members from the zone recently met and signed a statement to that effect. In it they said members from the six states of the region and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) have resolved to give Dogara bloc votes next month when the House is inaugurated.

According to the statement, "The North Central zonal caucus of the House of Representatives hereby announces its endorsement of Hon. Yakubu Dogara as Speaker of the House in the next Assembly. We have resolved to deliver bloc votes to Dogara during the election and ensure that we further canvass for votes and supports for him from other zones."

Saraki and Dogara are most likely to get the support of PDP lawmakers simply because the party, now in the opposition, is expected to be bent on paying back Tinubu, a force behind the defeat of the PDP during the March 28 presidential election. Like Tambuwal emerged through the spoiler played by the APC then, the PDP this time is expected to play the spoiler against the APC and elect both a President and Speaker that are theirs and not the stooge of any leader or president.