A three-horse governorship race is being fought in Kwara State between the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the Labour Party.

Leaders and stakeholders of the PDP are pursuing their quest to seize the political leadership of the state from the APC as reflected in their actions and rhetoric. But the first huddle they had to cross was to get a flag bearer from the 13 aspirants who had shown interest for the party's ticket. The conduct of the governorship primary had initially generated hysteria within the party but it eventually saw the emergence of Senator Simeon Sule Ajibola, the current senator representing Kwara South in the National Assembly. He secured 144 votes to beat a dozen aspirants.

However, despite the reported transparency of the process, which was attested to by some of the aspirants and observers, there was confusion as to the actual governorship candidate following alleged move to substitute the winner with a 'preferred' aspirant. The development created a lull within the party as its members were at loss as to what was happening. Apart from this, it was also speculated that the elected candidate for Kwara Central Senatorial District, Ahmed Yinka Aluko, had been substituted with Alhaji Abdulrahman Abdulrazaq, one of the aspirants he had defeated.

To give a fillip to the speculation, Mr Aluko hurriedly approached an Ilorin High Court to secure an interim injunction restraining the party from substituting his name with another person. While the candidates, at their individual levels, made several moves to thwart the alleged move to substitute them, it was obvious that the situation has created division in the state executive committee of the party as many members of the committee queued behind the elected candidates, saying they were not in support of any alleged manipulation of the primaries which would see the winners being substituted.

The party chairman in the state, Chief Iyiola Oyedepo, said only the national secretariat of the party had the final say on the outcome of the primaries. And the Deputy National Chairman, Alhaji Attahiru Manko, reassured the party members that the winners wouldn't be substituted. He said the controversy over the outcome of the primaries "is needless and uncalled for". After two weeks of the governorship primary, the national leadership approved the candidature of Ajibola.

With the dust over the governorship candidate cleared, the next challenge was the selection of a running mate. Though one of the governorship aspirants and son of late Governor Mohammed Lawal, Alhaji Hakeem Lawal, was believed to have been endorsed for the position, the calculation changed overnight as Mr Aluko, who fought vociferously to protect his senatorial ticket, was chosen as the running mate of the governorship candidate. With Aluko's promotion, Abdulrazaq, who came second in the senatorial primary, would now fly the PDP ticket for the Central Senatorial District. The readjustment has apparently shattered conjunctures within and outside the party, with some predicting possible defections. But the party chairman said this would not cause any member to dump the party for APC. "Our method has produced a gubernatorial candidate without being imposed," Chief Oyedepo said. According to him, Ajibola's choice would "make PDP stronger than before".

However, the party lost a big fish last week with the defection of Dr Mike Omotosho, the North-Central Coordinator of Jonathan Actualization Movement (JAM), to the Labour Party which has now given him its governorship ticket.

Omotosho, who is the founder of Mike Omotosho Foundation, lost in his bid to get the PDP's ticket for the House of Representatives seat of Ekiti/Irepodun/Isin/Oke-Ero Federal Constituency at the primary election held late last year. He was narrowly defeated by his opponent who polled 34 votes against Omotosho's 33.

There was initial controversy over Omotosho's candidacy in the Labour Party, given that the party had offered the ticket to Mr Abdulhakeem Adelaja-Amao whose posters have flooded most parts of the state as the Labour Party governorship candidate. But the state secretary of the LP, Comrade Abdulkareem Onagun, said the party went for Omotosho following Adelaja-Amao's failure to buy the nomination form of the party within time frame.

He said: "Engineer AbdulHakeem Adelaja-Amao happened to be a member of our party. He joined us last year, and he did some things for us in terms of uplifting the party, which actually we appreciate.

"When we realized that the election is coming up, he (Adelaja-Amao) said that he wanted to be governorship candidate of the party. He went to Abuja to collect the form of intent of the party for the sum of N1million. He was supposed to pay another N6.5million for nomination form. He didn't pay. He kept on telling the party 'I will pay today, I will pay tomorrow'.

"And the party at the national (headquarters) didn't want us to miss that chance in Kwara. So the party directed that the state chairman should fill the INEC form so that he would be able to retain the governorship seat for us in the state pending when we would be able to get a credible and reliable candidate, who would not be somebody that would be dilly-dallying with us.

"After a while, some of us have been in talk with Dr Mike Omotosho and some others. I don't want to mention names. And they have been promising that we should just be patient. Last week, we got the green-card from Abuja by the national leadership. The state chairman of the party, Babalola Johnson, and myself were summoned to Abuja. We met and we discussed, and instantly, the man (Omotosho) agreed to actually obtain the form and pay all the necessary fees, which he paid immediately. And there and then, the national leadership of the party gave him the go ahead to be the governorship candidate of LP in Kwara State," he said.

With that move, both Ajibola and Omotosho will slug it out with the incumbent Governor Abdulfatah Ahmed who is the consensus candidate of APC in the state. Ahmed’s emergence did not face much challenge like others following his endorsement by former Governor Bukola Saraki, who is the APC leader in the state. Omotosho’s entry into the race has sharpened the battle, given his relative popularity and the support he enjoys especially from Kwara South Senatorial District. By implication, all the three major candidates, among the 18 candidates that would be contesting the election, as officially declared by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) at its office in Ilorin, hail from Kwara South Senatorial District.

Ahmed hails from Share in Ifelodun Local Government while Ajibola and Omotosho hail from Isapa and Obbo Ile respectively, both in Ekiti Local Government Area. The APC, led by Saraki, is determined to retain its hold on the state while PDP is leaving no stone unturned to send the ruling party and its governorship candidate packing. Though Labour Party does not enjoy much presence in the state, the choice of Dr Omotosho as its candidate may give it some fighting chance in the coming election.

Dr Omotosho, a progressive medical consultant with broad-base experience in the healthcare sector, has consistently extended his gesture to Kwarans in different empowerment programmes including a one-week medical mission for more than 5,000 people in Kwara South. Through his foundation, he empowered women with N10 million micro-credit loan scheme late last year while the foundation also trained a total of 300 youths in computer skills in Kwara South Senatorial District in October 2014.

Daily Trust gathered that the southern senatorial district is currently divided over who to vote for in the coming election. However, the performance of both Ahmed and Ajibola in the election could depend on their achievements in the past. Ajibola who is a third-term senator representing Kwara South has to showcase his achievements in the upper chamber of the National Assembly in terms of the empowerment of his constituents and contributions to debate at the Senate while Governor Ahmed would have to reel out his achievements in the last three-and-a-half years. There is the likelihood of votes from Kwara South being split among the three candidates whose clout and influence stick out among other 15 contenders.

One major factor that may likely sway the vote in the coming election is religion, given the religious volatility in the state. Ajibola and Omotosho who are Christians may not have much problem in the South, but getting the largely Muslim Central and North senatorial districts along might be their main challenge. This is where Ahmed who is a Muslim has some advantage.

Though the PDP stakeholders, especially Ajibola's running mate Ahmed Yinka Aluko who is a Muslim from Ilorin in Kwara Central District, have tried hard to advise the people against voting on religious consideration, it remains to be seen how the appeal would yield result.

Be that as it may, analysts predict a tough battle among the three candidates in the governorship election next month.