The merger of a PDP faction with the opposition yesterday is the biggest political cross-over since 1999. The merger seemed to have shifted political calculations in the country going into 2015 elections. Bolade Omonijo analysed the new political configuration

This appears to be the season of the unprecedented. Before the merger of three major political parties – the Congress for Political Change (CPC), Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) and the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) was formalized in July following the registration of the All Progressives Congress (APC) by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC); there had been speculation that the move would be aborted before the consummation.

However, four months after, the merger seems to have come to stay. The leading lights of the political movement have traversed the entire country selling their position on the Nigeria Project and insisting that the time had come for a change.

Soon after, the crisis within the ruling PDP became unmanageable and the party was split down the middle. In the House of Representatives, the Senate, the party secretariat and the states, the PDP became a party divided against itself. Would it fall in 2015?

Yesterday's defection from the party by a faction that had gone by the appellation new PDP for months is the strongest indication that things would not be the same again. Those who left the PDP include the chairman of the faction, Alhaji Kawu Baraje who was a former Acting National Chairman of the party, a former national secretary, Prince Olagunsoye Oyinlola who was also the immediate past governor of Osun State, former governors Bukola Saraki of Kwara State, Danjuma Goje of Gombe and Abdullahi Adamu of Nasarawa State.

Others, Governors Rabiu Kwankwaso of Kano, Aliyu Wamakko of Sokoto, Murtala Nyako of Adamawa, Abdulafattah Ahmed of Kwara and Rotimi Amaechi of Rivers have taken the plunge and it remains to be seen the weight to be attached to their crossing.

2011 and 2015: a comparative analysis

The figures from 2011 suggest that APC may be poised to give PDP a strong fight at the 2015 general elections. In 2011, the elections in Kano showed that the leaders now in APC dictated the pace. In the presidential election, the party's candidate, General Muhammadu Buhari, polled 1.62 million votes, followed at a distance by ANPP's Alhaji Ibrahim Shekarau who was the governor of the state. In the third place was President Goodluck Jonathan, the PDP's candidate with 440,686 votes, leaving ACN's Mallam Nuhu Ribadu in the fourth position with a paltry 42,363 votes. Now, all the four leading parties in the state are in the state structure. Thus, it has become academic to ask which the dominant party in the state is. While the dynamics swung in favour of the PDP in the hotly contested governorship poll, the leading parties merely shuffled their positions.

The celebrated performance of Kwankwaso since he resumed the office he was made to vacate in 2003 has strengthened his position in the state, and Buhari remains a cult figure, especially among the masses and the youth in the entire far North.

If things do not change and the APC is united going into 2015 elections, no other party stands a chance.

Kwara has always presented a fascinating scenario to political analysts. For decades, the late Dr. Abubakar Olusola Saraki ruled the waves. He literally dictated the pace of things and direction of voting. It took his disaffection with the National Party of Nigeria (NPN) in 1983 to pave the way for the Unity Party of Nigeria. He literally singlehandedly installed Alhaji Shaaba Lafiagi as governor in the Third Republic and Rear Admiral Mohammed Alabi Lawal at inception of the Fourth Republic in 1999.

In 2003, he brought in his son, Bukola Saraki who repeated the feat in 2007. However, a parting of way between father and son in 2011 saw the emergence of the current governor who had received the blessing and support of the former governor, now in the Senate. So, just before the transition of the former strongman, another had emerged. The former governor has f a full hold on the PDP structure in Kwara State. He is in the Senate alongside Lafiagi who is a strong member of his political tendency. If there is understanding among the political roller coasters from the legacy parties that have coalesced into the APC in Kwara, victory is certain in all elections in 2015.

In the 2011 presidential election, the Bukola Saraki-led PDP was credited with 288, 243 or 64 per cent of the total votes cast while the CPC polled 83,603 and the ACN 62,432. As in Kano, all three tendencies are now in the APC. It is a formidable platform.

In Sokoto, the dominant parties in all the elections in 2011 were the CPC and PDP. Governor Wamakko's disenchantment with the party had begun to show at the PDP presidential primaries in Abuja where delegates from Sokoto clearly voted against President Jonathan. At the presidential election, CPC polled 540,769 votes to PDP's 309,067. While the reverse was the case in the governorship election that returned Wamakko to office, all the elections showed that the PDP and CPC decided what happened in the state. They also proved the electoral worth of the governor. When it is noted that former Governor Attahiru Bafarawa is also involved in the formation of the APC, it is obvious that the next elections are for the APC to lose in the state.

The situation in Rivers State is not as straightforward. While the PDP swept the polls the last time, the defection of Governor Amaechi is an acid test of his popularity. How much of the victory in 2011 could be attributed to Amaechi's personal charm and what proportion could be credited to the party structure? At the moment, the governor retains hold of the governance structure as well as the dominant faction of the party. However, the sentiment that a son of the region is President and the hostility of other PDP governors in the South South would test the resilience of the governor who was Speaker of the House of Representatives for eight year. The fact that he retains the control of the legislature and representatives in the National Assembly is an indication that he is a strong factor in his own right.

Hitherto, Rivers has been a one-party state and is renowned for an uncanny ability to turn up crucial votes for the winning party. Would the trend continue in 2015? A call cannot be easily made at the moment until the caliber of candidates and other factors unfold.

The trend in Adamawa where Governor Murtala Nyako was one of the first to indicate that it was all over with the PDP is not much different from the Rivers State scenario. Nyako has enemies within and without. The move to register the Peoples Democratic Movement spearheaded by former Vice President Atiku Abubakar has been attributed to the uneasy relationship he has at home with Nyako. It is to be noted, too, that the party's national chairman, Alhaji Bamanga Tukur hails from the state. The situation remains foggy. How it turns out remains to be seen.

In Nasarawa State where CPC's Governor Tanko Al-Makura holds sway, he narrowly won the 2011 governorship poll. He has since been making efforts to consolidate his hold on power. He has a formidable foe in the PDP that has former Governor Abdullahi Adamu as captain. Now that Adamu is in the same boat with the governor, Al-Makura could breathe easy. However, it remains to be seen whether interests and ego would not affect their relationship in the run up to 2015. United, the state would remain in the APC fold.

If the scenario prevailing today remains till 2015, the general election would be the first to provide real contest. In the entire Far North, comprising states in the North East and North West, 13 in all, the PDP will have to struggle to rake up sizeable votes. In the Middle Belt of North central states, both major parties remain strong. The South East and South South remains impregnable for the PDP and APC will have to struggle to make the 25 per cent mark outside Rivers and Edo. How fast Governor Rochas Okorocha, backed by the likes of ex-Governor Achike Udenwa can move remains to be seen.

The South West is likely to remain a stronghold of the APC. It has a tradition of filing behind progressive parties and, the fact that there would be a strong contest would likely encourage the people to votes in high numbers for the tile-tested progressive platform.

If it were to be a football march, commentators would describe it as a crunchy tie. The challenge is to ensure that all elections henceforth, starting with Ekiti and Osun next year are free, fair and credible. Otherwise, rigging becomes the overriding factor.