The situation in the Nigerian Senate is, indeed, very dicey. The Senate President Abubakar Bukola Saraki is in the Code of Conduct Tribunal facing corruption charges. The trial finally commenced after Saraki's unsuccessful attempts to stop it. Many lawyers, activists and political pundits are sharply divided over the ongoing trial of Senate President Bukola Saraki at the Code of Conduct Tribunal. Some say the trial, which borders on criminal offences, would be difficult to discard or have any political outcome.

According to them, the most likely outcome of the trial is that if Saraki is found guilty of false and anticipatory declaration of assets during his days as governor of Kwara State, he will be jailed. Others however insist Saraki is a victim of political persecution, saying the major case in question (alleged false assets declaration) would not have been raised if he had not emerged as Senate president against the wish of his party, the All Progressives Congress (APC).

Observers are equally divided on whether Saraki should vacate his office and face his trial squarely. His party, the APC, has also clearly made its position known on the Saraki issue. Though he said he was misquoted, national chairman of the party, Chief John Odigie-Oyegun, was recently reported by an online medium saying the law should be allowed to take its full course in line with the change mantra of the federal government.

"I can tell you the president (Muhammadu Buhari) will not interfere," he said. "The president is straight, definite and firm in all facets." Though technically seen as good omen for democratic development, some observers say by its stand on the matter, the APC may pay a huge price at the end of the case by, probably, losing the Senate presidency to the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

And if Ekweremadu fails to become the leader of the Senate, maybe because of some reasons of political balancing, the PDP, with little support from "dissidents" in the APC, will ultimately have its way by pushing for a candidate from the North-central Zone. Oyegun said: "Well, I do not think we will lose that position (Senate presidency). But sometimes, for change to take place there is a price you have to pay. So, losing the position may be sacrifice for change.

"We do not take anything for granted. As they (PDP) are planning, we are also planning. The situation is under control. The whole situation is unfortunate, but it is real." Of course, it's real. There are ample indications that if Saraki finally leaves, a new chapter, probably a rancorous one will be opened at the Senate over his replacement. For one, it will be foolhardy for a ruling party to be in the minority in the parliament, especially in a developing democracy like Nigeria, unlike what obtains in the United State, where the concept of separation of powers is strongly entrenched.

At present, the APC has 61 out of the 109 seats in the Senate, while the PDP controls the remaining 49. Although the APC has made its position known, its senators are sharply divided, with some married to the position of the party and others glued to Saraki who, certainly, maintains cordial relationship with most of the PDP senators.

It is feared that in the event Saraki is forced to vacate his seat as the Senate president, he might support the emergence of a PDP senator as head of the Senate, a development that will unmask fresh challenges for the APC and the Presidency. To prove the fact that he wouldn't mind throwing the baby together with bath water, Saraki, allegedly through a proxy, had pushed for the amendment of the Act that established the Code of Conduct Bureau (CCB) and Code of Conduct Tribunal (CCT), a move that generated heated objection from within and outside the Senate.

At least 28 civil society groups say the amendment must be stopped because it was hurriedly prepared for the "selfish" interest of the Senate president. Speaking on behalf of the CSOs, Mr Kolawole Banwo, a senior programme officer at the Civil Society Legislative Advocacy Centre (CISLAC), described the amendment process as "undemocratic, self-serving and dubious."

For now, Abdul Kafarati, a justice of the Federal High Court, Abuja, last week, ruled that the trial of Saraki must continue at the CCT. This latest ruling came after Saraki filed several cases at the courts to stall his trial. "It appears to me all that the applicant is trying to do is to stop his criminal trial at CCT," Kafarati said. "The CCT is a competent court to try the criminal matters, he added."

In February, after his case was dismissed at the Supreme Court, Saraki, through his lawyer, Ajibola Oloyede, citing violation of his rights to fair hearing at the CCT, filed a fresh lawsuit in which he asked the Federal High Court to stop his trial and disqualify the chairman of the CCT. At the CCT, the chairman said that the trial of Saraki must begin daily from 10:00am to 6:00pm.

The Chairman, Justice Danladi Umar, citing Section 392 of the Administration of Criminal Justice Act (ACJA), 2015, waved the call made for adjournment by the defense counsel, Paul Usoro, SAN, who earlier appealed to the Tribunal to adjourn its proceedings. Usoro prayed for a situation whereby members of the Senate who used to accompany Saraki to his trial at the Tribunal will be able to sit in the National Assembly and carry out their constitutional duties.

However, Justice Umar averred that it was Saraki, not the Senate, that was standing trial and, therefore, sitting must continue on daily basis. Interestingly, a new twist manifested itself at the Senate on Tuesday, when Ekweremadu concluded the last part of the plenary, after Saraki left for the CCT to face his trial.

So, will Saraki be shoved from his position as Senate president? Will the APC pay the supreme price of entrenching good democratic ethos? Will the PDP be the biggest beneficiary of the situation? Will Nigerians witness the first conviction of a big political fish? For now, we can only watch with keen interest as the drama unfolds.