Most of those who succeeded in winning governorship elections in Kwara have relied on federal might, according to PDP leaders in Kwara, but the opposition says it is possible for a party different from the one at the centre to win the state.

The minister of national planning and deputy chairman, National Planning Commission (NPC), Dr. Abubakar Olanrewaju Sulaiman is seen as the leader of the PDP in Kwara State.

In the absence of a People's Democratic Party (PDP) governor, he comes across as the rallying point for the PDP in the state and a reception was recently organized in his honour where PDP stakeholders in Kwara took turns to stress the need for the party to win the state in 2015.

In the well attended ceremony, PDP stakeholders insist Kwara cannot afford to be hostile to the government at the centre by belonging to an opposition party.

With the defection of former Governor Bukola Saraki and Governor Abdulfatah Ahmed from PDP to the All Progressives Congress (APC) in October last year, Kwara State has metamorphosed from a PDP state to one controlled by the opposition, engendering a cat and mouse relationship between the federal and state government.

The national planning minister, who is a political scientist, is at the forefront of trying to bring out the implication of being in the opposition to the people of the state as he insists the state is bound to suffer for choosing to be in the opposition.

"We have romanced with APP (All Peoples Party), we romanced PDP and now we are romancing with APC. It is quite unfortunate but I want to believe that any state especially a state like Kwara that refuses to join the mainstream politics is vulnerable to suffering... For Kwara State to decide to be in opposition is quite unfortunate," he said recently.

The minister said though the federal government would continue to allocate resources due to each state accordingly, some other benefits especially in terms of foreign aids requiring states to lobby the appropriate federal authorities might elude the state.

"In the last one month in government, I have seen what we have lost. In the last one month, I have discovered that most donor agencies that come to Nigeria, Kwara is not part of their consideration because we don't have anybody here. I have observed that if you are not in government to lobby your colleague ministers for certain things, nothing is done to you. You have to lobby, it is part of politics", he added.

Hajia Bola Sagaya and Mr. Dele Belgore who spoke at the occasion said the state must key into what they call "mainstream politics," explaining that it does not pay to be in opposition against the ruling party.

There have been arguments for and against the defection of Saraki and Governor Ahmed from the PDP to APC. While some observers believe it would be an impossible task for Saraki to win the 2015 election without federal might, others express contrary view, insisting that the people of Kwara State hold the ace as to which of the parties would win in 2015.

Some of the questions agitating the minds of the people of the state include; what role the federal government can play in influencing the victory of a particular party in a free and fair contest and if Saraki who is the leader of APC in the state can make history in 2015 by coasting home to victory without the support of the federal government.

Many say achieving this feat, would shatter the notion that his late father and strongman of Kwara politics, Dr. Olusola Saraki relied only on federal might to win elections.

The late Saraki virtually installed three successive civilian administrations in the state before his son took over the mantle of leadership in 2003, but many say he was able to achieve this because he had always enjoyed cordial relationship with the governments at the centre.

His role as godfather of Kwara politics dated back to the 1979 election in the Second Republic when he singlehandedly installed the first civilian governor of the state, Alhaji Adamu Attah under the banner of the defunct National Party of Nigeria (NPN).

His cordial relationship at the centre is said to have paid off when in the subsequent election he fielded Cornelius Adebayo and won amidst the political upheavals that rocked the state at that time following a cold war between Saraki and Attah.

It was a different scenario in 1999 when Saraki helped Mohammed Lawal who contested on the platform of the defunct All Peoples Party (APP) to win election as state governor when there was a PDP government at the center. This changed in 2003 when Bukola became governor on the ticket of the PDP for eight years. The defeat of Lawal after falling out with Saraki was said to have been made possible with the support of former President Olusegun Obasanjo who at that time deployed enormous resources and machinery for PDP to capture more states and virtually install a one-party state in Nigeria.

Kwara State since then remained a PDP state until October, last year when Saraki defected with his godson, Governor Ahmed to the APC thus pulling out of the much touted mainstream politics of the ruling party due to what they alleged impunity by the ruling PDP.

Thus the raging debate on the desirability or otherwise of the state continuing on a different platform from the one at the center.

While PDP stakeholders are promising to latch on to the federal might to defeat the APC, some observers however challenge this reliance on federal might, describing it as a myth which has no potency in a free and fair contest. Saraki, while speaking with newsmen recently argued that federal might cannot supersede the wish of the people.

He said, "It is my honest belief that the power is with the people; the power does not reside in any city or in any town...Now anywhere in the world, democracy is about the people; it is the people that have the votes, that have a say. I have said many times that it is the people that would decide.

"I think what Osun has shown, with 70, 000 police and soldiers for one election in one day, is that federal might could not deliver the candidate. It is the people. And my good people of Kwara, don’t be scared. Those security there are paid to look after and maintain law and order. Osun has shown that there is no federal might, it is we Kwarans that would decide the future".

An elder of PDP in the state, Alhaji Lamidi Jimoh in an interview with our correspondent agreed that it is not federal might that wins election but the popularity of the party and candidate at various levels, adding however that PDP would win the 2015 election as shown by the massive turnout of people at recent rallies held by the party.

"All that is needed from the security agencies is a level playing ground for everybody, fairness and equity in the handling of matters. The federal would not come and vote. It is the people who would vote.

"From what you can see during the various rallies held by PDP, you would agree with me that the pendulum has swung in favour of PDP in the state and we hope that with God on our side, we would win", he said.

But the national leadership of PDP and presidency have not hidden their interests in recapturing the state after Saraki, Ahmed and all the elected members of the party except Senator Simeon Ajibola representing Kwara South in the Senate defected to the APC. President Goodluck Jonathan also declared at separate event in the state and Abuja that the PDP would take over Kwara State in 2015. The stage is therefore for the battle between those to be backed by federal might and those opposed to the government at the center.