By Ogaga Ifowodo

WHAT happens when a president and the people who elected him have a fundamental disagreement over a major policy? Does the president bow to the people, or do the people bow to the president? This is the question that must be answered urgently if the riotous mood of the people, following President Goodluck Jonathan’s withdrawal of a so-called subsidy on oil products — and, now, a token reduction in the ensuing pump price of petrol — is to calm down. Democracy, even the sham that we practise, says it is the president who must bow. The people’s will, democracy holds, is supreme; does not permit a president’s personal judgement regarding its rightness or wrongness to prevail over it. If a president cannot persuade his people of their foolishness, he must resign from office in order that the will of the people may remain the basis of governance.

But far from accepting the will of the people in a matter that threatens their daily existence, so much so that they have defied death and grievous bodily harm to bring their grievances to the streets, Jonathan insists on asserting himself. And this despite the fact that so far more than a dozen citizens have been killed by the police or other security agents, beginning with the 23-year-old Muyideen Mustapha Opobiyi murdered in Ilorin on the first day of nationwide protests. Just as Jonathan scorned public opinion to unilaterally remove a contrived subsidy that enriched an oil cabal but nevertheless made life tolerable for the impoverished masses, thereby jacking up the litre price of petrol to N141, he has as arbitrarily reduced it to N97. But he does so knowing that the people demand a return to the previous price of N65; that they do not see any reason to pay a kobo more. It is clear, then, that Jonathan is daring the people, especially when he is reported to have offered the lower price of N90 in negotiations with representatives of organised labour and civil society. Apparently, it is no longer a case of getting rid of the subsidy once and for all, nor of raising the magical sum of N1.134 trillion to fund the paradise promised in Jonathan’s Subsidy Reinvestment and Development Strategy (SURE). It is now down to haggling, like harried housewives bent over a tray of crayfish! Meanwhile, the token reduction guarantees another “subsidy” withdrawal war before long.

How sad that Jonathan couldn’t bring himself to shun the script perfected by his predecessors, Generals Babangida and Obasanjo. First, raise the price of refined petroleum products. Then sit back as the people pour into the streets. Then offer a reduction in the price that the people will have to pay again to feed the greed of the tiny minority. After which the people withdraw from the streets to mourn their dead and lick their wounds, while the government’s coffers are replenished and the contract jamboree resumes. Business as usual!

It is not clear how many more lives and limbs it will take before His Excellency, Dr. Goodluck Jonathan, Grand Commander of the Federal Republic and Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces — to dress him in his full armour — might consider changing his mind. As the C-in-C and the de facto leader of the People’s Democratic Party he knows all about do-or-die battles, and he is determined to win the oil subsidy war at all cost. The military and coercive machinery which he commands aside, he must be counting on another weapon, saying to himself: “How long can these hungry people remain in the streets before they will be forced to scamper off in search of their next meal?” Not very long, obviously, when all they can be lucky to count on is a daily family food budget of N150, nothing to touch his own N2.7 million per day.

Jonathan also knows something about propaganda. So he has deployed his information minister, Labaran Maku, to battle. And, promptly, Maku went for the predictable tactic of blaming the victim. By protesting, Maku says, the people are only “adding more pains” to their woes. He couched the calumny in the form of an appeal: “We are appealing to Nigerians, civil society organisations, and labour to understand that we believe that this option that has been taken is adding more pains to our people and we hope that in the days ahead they will see reason and drop the protest and continue the process of dialogue.” We being Government, Maku adds that it is the “belief” of the government “that anything that cannot be achieved through discussion will not really be useful when you call the general population to the streets.” In case you are wondering, yes it is the same Maku who, as a student leader, called the general population of Jos to the streets in 1998 when General Babangida began the oil subsidy wars, as the wily general recently reminded the minister.

And, yes, we have been at this vexing juncture several times before, of power having its way while urging the people to have a say. But how do you dialogue over a policy that is already being implemented and which is declared irreversible? Remember how Olu Falae, as Minister of Finance, parroted the no-alternative-to-SAP mantra while Babangida called for a national debate? And his surrendering the economy to the IMF/World Bank while the people debated? Like his predecessors, Jonathan has placed himself above the people. Since the people believe that the so-called subsidy is on the immeasurable greed and inefficiency of government and its cronies, they no longer matter to Jonathan. Unfortunately, his argument in favour of subsidy only proves the people’s case. Jonathan has himself acknowledged a powerful oil cabal that sabotaged the refineries and pressed the country into the fuel import scam, a virtual pipeline through which colossal sums are drained from the treasury into private pockets. Why won’t Jonathan go after the members of this cabal — contractors and top bureaucrats of NNPC and the Ministry of Petroleum Resources?

But now instead of the total of N1.134 trillion that Jonathan hoped to save by eliminating the “subsidy,” he can only expect about N800 billion, to be shared among the three tiers of government and the federal capital. Let us assume that railways, refineries, maternities, dams, power plants, roads, bridges, and the many other good things SURE promises can still be achieved with his share of this sum. It remains a mystery why a president who touts his humble beginnings and swears at the drop of a hat that he is not out to punish the people would nonetheless be willing to heap even greater suffering on them. I am not an economist but it seems obvious that as much inflation-induced misery will come of raising the price of petrol to N141 as to N97.

Ostensibly, Jonathan is adamant because there is no other way to fund his trillion naira transformation project. Yet, there is not one but many other ways. Among them: a 50% cut, for a start, in total emoluments (salaries and allowances) of all political and top public office holders; an end to the booty called security votes handed to the president and governors (and, doubtless, emulated by all executive political officers such as the vice president, local government chairmen, speaker of the House of Representatives, president of the Senate, speakers of all the state houses, ministers and commissioners); the recovery of stolen loot; and the immediate plugging of all avenues of waste and graft. Take security votes alone. At roughly N300 million monthly per state governor — though the actual figures remain a well-guarded secret — that is N3.6 billion a year, amounting to N130 billion for all thirty-six states. Add to that the president’s own security vote, also a matter of great secrecy but assuredly a staggering amount, and it becomes even plainer that Jonathan has no reason to multiply the suffering of the people.

This option prevents him from insisting, in effect, that the people continue their unending blood transfusion to maintain a monstrous government machinery of corruption and inefficiency. But the truth is that one more litre of blood will mean their death, metaphorically speaking, though this metaphor assumes a literal meaning with the blood spilled and yet to dry in the streets. By refusing to consider this option, and by choosing to subvert the people’s sovereign will, Jonathan begins a dangerous tightrope walk to tyranny. Faced with this choice, it is in his best interest to resign. Honourably. If in doubt, he would do well to consult the newest pages of history’s book of dictators.