Aside the frenzied governorship election in Kwara State, another battle waiting to happen in the state next year is the National Assembly elections, writes Hammed Shittu

The race to the three senatorial seats of Kwara central, South and North and that of the six federal seats in the House of Representatives has begun amongst the various aspirants across the political parties. Each of the aspirants has commenced intensive political lobby and calculations to realize their ambition.

Even the present set of lawmakers in both chambers of the National Assembly has not left anything to chance to ensure they continue in office by next year’s elections.

During the just concluded Ramadan, some of them had reached out to the members of their various constituencies and senatorial districts to dish out some gifts to them as a way to re-oil their second term bid.

Also, some of them have been using the give-back platform as strategy to consolidate. They have been giving out such things like cars, bags of rice, motorbikes, cash donations and fertilizers among others to enable them secure the people’s support when the time comes, both during the primaries and the general election.

As this is not enough, some of the lawmakers now attend social functions by the people of their wards, constituencies and senatorial districts like naming ceremony, marriage functions and funeral to show their familiarity and support to the people. But these are part of moves to sell their candidature before the primaries beckon.

Sources close to some of the lawmakers in the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the state say they have been moving round quietly to ensure that they get the nod of the political leader of the APC in the state, who is also the senator representing Kwara central, Senator Bukola Saraki as well as others who matter in the PDP in the state.

The occupants of the senatorial seats are a former governor in the state Senator Sha'Aba Lafiagi of APC (Kwara North); Saraki (Kwara Central) and Senator Sule Simeon Ajibola, a two term senator and a member of PDP from Kwara South. Two of the senators were formerly elected on the platform of PDP before they defected to the APC. The only remaining senator of the PDP is Ajibola from South.
However, all the six House of Representatives members in the APC are not left out in the struggle as they have been working with Saraki for the growth of APC in the state. Pundits in the state believe that the pending battle for the national assembly positions is between the APC and the PDP. Each of the parties has commenced their strategy to outwit each other during the period.

THISDAY further gathered that because of the apparent vacancy for the APC in Kwara south, more candidates have emerged from the‎ zone while none has come forward in both central and north because of the assumption that Lafiagi and Saraki would be interested in re-contesting their seats.

Again, the very slim chances of unseating the two former governors may be responsible for the little or no interest in both the APC and the PDP from the zones. But there are more aspirants for the south seat from Ifelodun local government area because the zoning formula is said to favour the local government.

For example, there are two federal constituencies and two ethnic groups from the axis namely Offa and Oyun axis and Ekiti axis‎ and Ibolo and Igbonna respectively. From the political history of the state, Irepodun in particular has not produced any elective‎ office holder whereas the present occupants for both the House of Representatives and the Senate are from the Ekiti axis of igbonna and Ibolo.

In addition, the incumbent governor, Alhaji Abdulfatah Ahmed, who is from Share, the headquarters of Ifelodun is being pushed by his kinsmen to seek a second term in office and if at the end of the day, the agenda comes true, Ifelodun axis cannot ‎therefore produce the senator. So, based on these extrapolations, the understanding is that it is the turn of Irepodun local government to produce the next senator.

As a result, the contestants from the APC in Irepodun are a former minister of state for women affairs during the administration of Chief Olusegun Obasanjo, Olufunke Adedoyin‎, a lawyer by name Aderemi and Mr. Aanu Ibiwoye. There is also an aspirant from Offa, Mr. Kayode Adebiyi while the neighbouring Erinle also produced an aspirant popularly known as Oluomo.

However, from the opposition PDP, a renowned political leader from Offa, Hon Lola Ashiru is so far the only aspirant for the party. Below is a dissection of some of the aspirants in the race.

Funke Adedoyin
Among those who have shown interests in the APC is a former minister of state for women affairs in the Olusegun Obasanjo administration, Ms. Funke Adedoyin from Agbamu in Irepodun local government area of the state, who has since been on the ground to establish her presence.

Adedoyin a grassroots politician is believed to be the most cosmopolitan among the aspirants because of her background and has been on top of her game since she ventured into politics. She is seen as a close associate of the former vice-president, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar. The former minister has visited virtually all the seven‎ local governments namely Isin, Ekiti, Oke-Ero, Irepodun, Ifelodun, Offa and Oyun that are within the kwara south senatorial district.

She has also been canvassing for supports from all the 83 wards executives and the councilors as well as elders and leaders of the party at the wards and local governments levels. She is said to have been receiving favourable feedbacks from everywhere she visited as the people were said to have recalled her good deeds before, during and after serving out her ministerial appointment.

Her father’s pedigree (Samuel Adedoyin) as a business mogul and philanthropist ‎ in Agbamu and even Lagos may also complement her personal efforts and boost her chances.

Aanu Ibiwoye
Mr. Aanu Ibiwoye was the senatorial candidate of the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) during the 2011 general election where he performed well but came second to the PDP candidate. He is also from Irepodun local government. He is Adedoyin’s kinsman, who interestingly brought him into active politics when she appointed him Personal Assistant while serving as minister.

Ibiwoye is reportedly being supported by Alhaji Lai Mohammed, the National Publicity Secretary of APC, who was widely reported to be interested in the senatorial race until recently when the national delegate conference of his party confirmed his election as the national publicity secretary of the party, an office he has effectively managed for the party long before now. Ibiwoye has also been going round to meet party leaders and elders to canvass for their support for his senatorial ambition.

Aderemi
Aderemi is a successful lawyer based in Lagos. He’s from Okeye town from Irepodun local government area of the state. Though he has not been fully involved in his party activities like the other two aspirants, he has also been reaching out to stakeholders in the APC about his political ambition.

L'ola Ashiru
Hon. l'ola Ashiru is an Architect by profession and a successful business man from Offa. He has been dictating the political pace from his community down to his senatorial district and even across the state for well over a decade now. His plan to realise his political dream of being the governor of Kwara State and senator from Kwara south had seen him traverse the major political parties in the state at different times. 

His political machines from Offa had produced the popular Saheed Popoola, who at a point left him for then ACN, which voted him into office as chairman of Offa local government in deterrence to Ashiru.  In the last election, Popoola was voted out by the PDP which now returned them to the APC.

Findings have revealed that the reality of realising his political ambition this time has prompted Ashiru to want to contest for Kwara south senatorial seat instead of the governorship.

Within the PDP fold, Ashiru has been identified as the finest aspirant for the post while logistics and resources are being mobilised by the stakeholders in the PDP at both the state and federal to ensure that his political ambition is realised this time.
Ashiru's political machines established across his Kwara south senatorial district are being revved up for the 2015 elections on the platform of PDP.

Generally, there are other factors that would determine who gets what in next year’s elections in the state. Among such considerations are gender and religion. For the ruling APC and Saraki’s political machines‎, there is much emphasis on consensus candidacy which this time will be largely decided by the popularity of the candidate among the stakeholders.

This is to ensure that the now visible and strong opposition in the state does not gain from the fallout of imposing candidates which might make them lose any of the elections. It now behooves the leadership of both parties especially that of APC to be wary about the choice of their candidates if they must consolidate for 2015.