Date: 2026-01-14

The All Progressives Congress (APC) in Kwara State is bracing for a period of intense political maneuvering ahead of the 2027 general elections. The focal point of this unfolding drama is the Kwara Central Senatorial District, which holds approximately 50 percent of the state's total voting strength.

A "titanic internal contest" is emerging between two party heavyweights: the outgoing two-term Governor, AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq, and the incumbent Senator representing the district, Saliu Mustapha.

Governor AbdulRazaq is reportedly nurturing an ambition to transition to the Senate after completing his second term in office. Conversely, Senator Mustapha, a first-term lawmaker, is keen on seeking re-election and consolidating his foothold in the state's political landscape.

While neither candidate has officially declared their intentions in formal terms, signals from party caucuses, elite consultations, and local radio interventions suggest that battle lines are already being drawn. This potential clash between an outgoing governor seeking post-Government House relevance and a sitting senator looking to maintain his seat is expected to severely test the unity and cohesion of the APC in Kwara State.

As the district with the highest population and voting power, the outcome of this rivalry in Kwara Central will likely dictate the political direction of the entire state as the 2027 election cycle approaches.

An incumbent senator who defied expectations

Senator Saliu Mustapha, elected in 2023 as a first-time legislator, entered the 10th Senate with relatively modest expectations from bookmakers and political analysts. Barely three years into his tenure, however, Mustapha has emerged as one of the more influential new entrants into Nigeria's upper legislative chamber.

His first major imprint came during the intense leadership contest of the Senate. At a time of uncertainty and high-stakes lobbying, Mustapha reportedly rallied over 70 first-time senators, playing a key role in negotiating and consolidating support for Godswill Akpabio, who eventually emerged as Senate President against a formidable challenger, former Zamfara State governor, Abdulaziz Yari.

That early show of organisational capacity and influence significantly elevated Mustapha's standing. He was subsequently appointed Chairman, Senate Committee on Agriculture and Agricultural Production Services one of the most influential and resource-intensive committees in the Senate, given agriculture's centrality to Nigeria's economy and food security agenda.

Mustapha's committee position quickly translated into tangible constituency interventions. Several multi-billion-naira agricultural and infrastructure-related projects were facilitated for Kwara Central, reinforcing his image as a senator leveraging legislative power for constituency impact.

However, some of these interventions became flashpoints. A proposed pavillion project at the Ilorin Emir's Palace, reportedly facilitated through federal channels was halted by the Kwara State government on grounds of alleged lack of authorisation. The episode marked one of the earliest public signs of strain between the senator and the administration of Governor Abdulrazaq.

Tensions deepened in July last year when the Chairman of Ilorin East Local Government Area, Lukman Agbelere, stopped a multi-million-naira hospital renovation project facilitated by Senator Mustapha. The Federal Government intervention, reportedly valued at about N200 million, was meant to upgrade a Primary Healthcare Centre in Awodi, Gambari Ward II.

In a video that was later circulated online, Agbelere openly justified his action on grounds of political loyalty to the governor. Speaking in Yoruba, he described Senator Mustapha as "an enemy of my boss," adding pointedly, "Ota oga mi, ota mi" translated as "an enemy of my boss is my enemy."

The incident further exposed the widening rift between the two power centres.

A cat-and-mouse relationship

Since Mustapha's inauguration in 2023, his relationship with Governor AbdulRazak has steadily deteriorated. Political insiders traced the tension to overlapping influence, competing loyalties, and divergent approaches to power management within the APC.

Sources cite disagreements over constituency project visibility, control of party structures, and perceived attempts by both camps to independently cultivate loyalty among stakeholders in Kwara Central. What began as muted rivalry has hardened into open suspicion.

The rivalry has increasingly spilled into the public space, with aides and allies of both camps engaging in heated exchanges on radio programmes and online political podcasts.

On one such occasion, the Special Adviser on Political Matters to the Governor, Alhaji Abubakar Suleiman, openly criticised Mustapha's performance, comparing him unfavourably with his predecessors.

"Senator Saliu Mustapha is not the first senator to represent Kwara Central, and he won't be the last. When you compare his achievements with those of his predecessors, especially Senator Yahaya Oloriegbe, you will see that he hasn't achieved up to 50 percent of what they did," Suleiman said.

The governor's senate ambition enters the equation

The already-strained relationship now threatens to deteriorate further amid growing indications that Governor AbdulRazak is warming up to contest the Kwara Central Senate seat after completing his tenure.

This ambition has gained added significance following reports that the governor has endorsed another aspirant for the APC governorship ticket in 2027, a move widely interpreted as clearing the path for his own transition to the National Assembly.

If realized, it would pitch an outgoing governor directly against a sitting senator for the same ticket an unusual and potentially explosive intra-party contest in Kwara's recent political history.

Fuel has been added to the fire by the activities of the Kwara Central Elders Caucus of the APC, led by Alhaji Mustapha Kobe. The caucus has publicly called for the Senate ticket to be ceded to Governor AbdulRazak, urging party leaders to allow him to replace Senator Mustapha.

The group has reportedly toured all four local government areas in the senatorial district, canvassing support for a zoning adjustment that would move the ticket from Ilorin East Mustapha's base to Ilorin West, the governor's home LGA.

Critics have argued that the move has already reopened old wounds. An APC chieftain from Ilorin East, who spoke to our correspondent under the conditions of anonymity, told our correspondent: "For over 25 years, Ilorin West has dominated the Senate seat from Olusola Saraki to Bukola Saraki, Gbemisola Saraki, and Yahaya Oloriegbe. Ilorin East has barely spent two years in the saddle, yet agitation has already begun to take the ticket back to Ilorin West, which has had it for donkey years. That is unfair."

However, Dr. Jamiu Ajia of the University of Ilorin offered a more nuanced perspective. "It is within the democratic rights of the governor to contest the Senate seat. But equity demands balance. The governor wants the Senate seat currently occupied by Ilorin East but does not want to relinquish the governorship ticket to the same local government. That is the real bone of contention," he said.

Trade by barter or open confrontation?

Speculation abounds over whether Senator Mustapha would be persuaded or pressured to relinquish his ticket. Some party figures suggest a trade-by-barter arrangement, while others insist that Mustapha entered the Senate on the understanding that Ilorin East would hold the seat for only one term.

This was the view of APC chieftain, Alhaji Uthman Bibire-Ajape, who claimed that a single-term agreement existed from the outset.

But political analyst, Comrade Shola Muse, dismissed the notion that Mustapha could be easily sidelined. "Mustapha is no political lightweight. If the governor wants the Senate ticket, he must be willing to give something in return possibly the governorship ticket. Nobody can have it all. Mishandling Mustapha could have serious repercussions for the APC in 2027," he warned.

A battle that may define Kwara APC

As things stand, Kwara Central appears headed for a defining internal struggle one that could reshape the APC's post-governorship transition and test its capacity for internal conflict management.

Whether the contest ends in elite negotiation, zoning compromise, or a bruising primary battle remains uncertain. What is clear, however, is that the era of quiet succession in Kwara Central is drawing to a close, and the choices made now may determine the party's electoral fortunes in 2027 and beyond.