Shape of Kwara Politics after Saraki
Maybe the death of Dr. Olusola Saraki will not create such a huge vacuum after all in Kwara State politics. There is no gainsaying the fact that as the godfather of Kwara politics, Olusola Saraki's shoes will be hard to fit.
However, his close associates are not crestfallen. The first indication that the Olooye might have prepared for his successor was put on display during the 2011 elections in Kwara. During the governorship election, his son and former governor of the state, Senator Bukola Saraki, publicly dared Olusola. It used to be routine for the strongman of Kwara politics to pick and choose who got what electoral position in Kwara. But in 2011, Bukola stood against his father's choice. Olusola wanted his daughter Gbemisola to succeed his brother, who had served his two terms. The former governor had other ideas. He wanted the incumbent governor Alhaji Abdulfatah Ahmed as the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) candidate. To pursue his objective of installing his daughter in the Government House, the older Saraki floated the Allied Congress Party of Nigeria (ACPN). The result of the election is the first indication of a shift of guard and the emergence of a new godfather in Kwara.
Today, there are suggestions that the shift has definitely opened up the field for the emergence of godfathers, and opportunity for groups seeking self-assertion and self-determination within the state's politics to take their stand. Will all those groups that felt marginalised by late Saraki bloom? Will all those who could not nurture their political ambitions begin to dream big dreams?
In 2011, the Kwara State Stakeholders Forum had cried out that they had had enough of the Saraki political hegemony and were set to throw off the yoke. The leader of the forum, Dr. Amuda Aluko at a gathering expressed the desire of the group to wrestle power from the Saraki leadership and throw up a new power bloc.
According to Aluko, the forum had come 'to regain the state, which has become the personal fiefdom of an individual and our collective patrimony which has been taken over by an individual family."
The chairman of the Kwara chapter of the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), Kayode Olawepo is among those who believe that with the exit of Saraki, Kwara politics would change.
According to him: "With the death of Saraki, those using his name to win elections would do a re-think. No name will henceforth be working for any politician in Kwara; it is the manifesto and structure of the party, and the credibility of members of the party that will determine the winners of elections in the state.
"The ACN is the only party I consider suitable for all these criteria and very soon the Saraki political hegemony will be thrown into confusion because they cannot win an election without him."
Olawepo disclosed the readiness of the ACN to occupy the Government House in 2015. "We are stronger than we were in the past and we are going to produce the next governor. Even in America, considered as the bastion of the democracy, no single party has complete dominance of the polity. So if we must grow too as a democratic nation, we must allow other parties to rule. This will give the people the opportunity to compare and contrast."
The Director of Publicity of the PDP, Alhaji Mas'ud Adebimpe, described the view of the ACN leader as wishful thinking. Adebimpe boasted that no politician could dismantle the political structure of Olooye built over four decades, "when his lieutenants are no fools or imbeciles."
According to Adebimpe, "every politician will always wish himself good luck even when the luck does not exist. People should know that Olooye's politics was not built on his physical presence but legacies. His presence is not needed for the people to know how to vote. He was once in Abuja and directed his people to vote for the PDP and they obeyed him.
"The popular belief of many politicians in the country had always been that if you want to win election in Kwara go and see Olooye. That belief still holds water and we can't see any politician today who has the antics to dismantle the political structure of Saraki.
"Let all those boasters come to the court of public opinion to tell us what positive impact they have made in the life of an average Kwara indigene. Many of these seasonal politicians had held juicy political offices but failed to help anybody. As far as we are concerned, it is a wishful thinking on their part to think of producing the next governor."
It is the permutation of the opposition in the state that Gbemisola may still attempt a shot at the governorship of the state in 2015, despite her loss to the incumbent, in 2011. Will Gbemisola still vie under the platform of the ACPN, the party floated for her benefit by her late father? Will she have the guts to stand up against the acclaimed godfather, her brother, Bukola and the PDP? The PDP victory was massive as the party swept votes in 15 out of the existing 16 councils in the state conceding victory to ACN only in Offa Council.
Incidentally, Olooye reconciled brother and sister, and their followers, urging them to unite as a family and give their support to Ahmed. But despite the reconciliation, sources disclosed in Ilorin that some members of the now defunct ACPN "are still nursing the ambition of bringing up the party and present Gbemisola as their governorship candidate in the 2015."
But a political aide to Gbemisola dismissed suggestions of the alleged resuscitation bid of the ACPN "in memory of the late politician." In debunking the rumours, Alhaji Suleiman Jabata added that it was being mooted to cause "disaffection in the political dynasty of the Saraki." He warned against it, insisting that it was only an appropriate directive from the right quarters that could bring back the ACPN.
According to Jabata, "I have not heard it from any quarters that the ACPN would rise and allow its platform to be used by Senator Gbemisola to contest the 2015 governorship polls. Baba Olooye was the owner of the party but he is late now. We must abide by whatever is on the ground, just as I believe that it is dangerous to champion the cause. We are all awaiting directives on the way forward."
The Secretary of Kwara PDP Yemi Afolayan believed that there could never be any rancour between members of his party and those of the ACPN. Afolayan said Bukola, having displayed his leadership traits, even before the demise of his father, would continually be "our leader."
Afolayan said, "Saraki transferred power before his death. Bukola had faced his father in 2011; all those who triwed it in the past had in the past attempted it had failed. But Bukola won, so the Olooye had transferred power to our new leader, Bukola Saraki.
"What is most interesting in it all is that the ACPN members are back into the PDP fold with a renewed vigour. The camp therefore is being depleted daily. They do not have the muscles to wrestle power from the ruling party."
A member of the ACN representing Offa in the State House of Assembly, Hassan Oyeleke said the democracy of Kwara would be "free from the muscles of god fatherism. In Kwara we have not enjoyed freedom of democracy. It had been purely a case of family affairs. We had never seen Bukola as having the clout of his father, who was a great politician. Bukola is elitist and being a (former) governor does not translate into leadership. The truth is that things can never remain the same again in the saraki political camp.
"Besides, people who had had great visions and ideas for the state may now see the death as an avenue for them to come up politically and herald their presence. The powerful name of Saraki will no longer work for many of them. We are not saying this in order to be seen as if we are rejoicing over his death, but our belief is that the level playing ground will be there for us all now to operate."
One politician who may benefit from the 'atmosphere of freedom' is the former Deputy National Publicity Secretary of the PDP, Gbenga Olawepo who last year "retired" from politics. He said in Ilorin that "but for the factor of Olooye, Bukola could not have been able to defeat me in any electoral contest."
It is not yet certain if Olawepo would renounce his position on the state's politics and re-contest in 2015. He came second in the 2007 governorship election on the platform of the Democratic People Party (DPP). He challenged the victory of Bukola in the Election Petition Tribunals but lost.
Perhaps the best way to describe the emerging trends in Kwara politics at present is to await the next rounds of elections in the state. The elections would be a veritable gauge for the political strength of Bukola without his father's input and the loyalty of the people of Kwara to Olooye after his death.
The state Chairman of the Civil Service Commission, Alhaji Kayode Suleiman, one of the "foot soldiers" of Olooye said, "to many of us, we can't but continuously follow his son who is now our leader. We shall be the greatest ingrates if we renege on our loyalty. He conferred many benefits on us and even the entire Ilorin Community could not but continuously be grateful to this great son of ours even in his graves.
"To those doubting the existence of this dynasty, Olooye had shown us the secret before his death. He had chosen his son Bukola as his successor before his death."
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