If endorsements can translate to votes, then Governor Abdulfatah Ahmed of Kwara State should not entertain any doubt, going by the number of groups and associations that have endorsed him for a second term of office. Davidson Iriekpen writes

With the 2015 elections fast approaching, one of the incumbent governors that have enjoyed tremendous endorsements is Alhaji Abdulfatah Ahmed of Kwara State. In the three senatorial districts in the last three months, over 20 groups and associations have endorsed his second term bid. These groups and associations range from socio-political association, students’ bodies, women groups, National Union of Road Transport Workers Union (NURTW), non-governmental organisations (NGOs) musicians, artisans, traditional rulers to the political leaders from the three senatorial districts in the state. To many observers, these are the core people that form the electorate.

For instance, recently, three major non-governmental organisations, Kwara North Youth Consultative Forum, the National Association of Kwara State Students (NAKSS), national headquarters and Ilorin Emirate Students Union, national headquarters, endorsed Ahmed for a second term in office.

In separate statements, the organisations identified the people-oriented policies and programmes of the governor as testimonies of why he deserved a second term in office. The NAKSS in a statement jointly signed by its President, Ajadi Bolakale Muyideen and Public Relations Officer, Suleiman Kabir Alaran, lauded Ahmed’s selfless service to the people of the state. It expressed gratitude to the state government for the payment of bursary to all students of tertiary institutions in the state which it noted was a relief to parents.

“As a body that always fights for over one million students, we want to personally salute the courage of our dear governor for good service to the people of the state and we assure him of our unalloyed support at all times,” NAKSS said.

Also, the Ilorin Emirate Students Union in its statement signed by its President, Alaburo Sherifideen, Senate President, Jawando Abdulazeez and Director of Sports, Jaji Moshood, described the governor’s achievements in the education sector as unprecedented. The group described the reduction of tuition fees of students of Kwara State University, Malete by 50 per cent as noteworthy as it gives more students access to university education. It also praised the governor for making primary and post primary education tuition free and for the renovation and construction of classrooms at the two levels of the education system.

On its part, the Coordinator of Kwara North Youth Consultative Forum, Ibrahim Kutan Muhammed, said Ahmed has success stories to tell in the health, agriculture, energy, works and transport, education, youth development and other sectors. “In view of doggedness of his administration to pursing the shared prosperity vision for a better Kwara, the Kwara North Youth consultative forum is in full support of the governor for a second term in 2015 so as to continue on the good work which transcends all spheres of our lives,” the forum said.

To a lot of political analysts in the state, the gale of endorsements sweeping across the state for Ahmed is not misplaced, except that it is such that trending political calculations might upset various camps in a state which until recently was built around a single political family.

For the over three years that he has ruled the state, he not stirred any controversy. Also, no politician has come between him and his political leader, Senator Bukola Saraki. Unlike other states, where crises between predecessors and their successors have reached the peak, there is a cordial relationship between the former governor and Ahmed. However, as the succession battle gathers momentum, there are insinuations that it may be difficult for the governor to secure a second term ticket.

The situation was made worse with the defection of the governor and Saraki to the All Progressives Congress (APC) last year. The permutation, which no doubt has been the pre-occupation of the party, raised a lot of concerns over which senatorial zone will guarantee victory for it, especially with the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) doing everything politically possible to snatch victory from it. The situation was so rife in the APC following postulations that the defection of Ahmed and Saraki from the PDP to APC would cost the governor a second term ticket.

Even though there is no consensus yet on succession in the APC in the state a section believes that Ahmed’s political future hangs in the balance despite the fact that he has performed. However, those against his ambition allude to political expediency, claiming that, since the PDP is likely to pick its flag bearer from Kwara Central senatorial district, the ruling party should not be indifferent to its implications for the election. This latter group feels that another aspirant would be a better option.

Kwara Central has the highest number of voters. Therefore, it is the target of the PDP. But, the zone cannot solely install the governor. Therefore, the opposition party is also mobilising support in the South, where the governor comes from, and the North, to pull the rug of the feet of the APC.

In spite of the permutation, the APC is still believed to have an edge over the PDP. The ruling party is popular across the three districts. Not only has it been able to overcome the regression to ethnic division by the PDP, but unlike the PDP, which lacks an arrowhead, the APC is forging ahead under the leadership of Saraki, ably supported by his lieutenant, Ahmed.

Particularly, the uneasiness in the APC was informed by expectations that the PDP was going to pick its candidate from Kwara Central senatorial zone.

Since the zone is regarded as a huge electoral asset, given the fact that it boasts of the highest number of registered voters in the state, the nervousness in APC and among the associates of the incumbent governor were not unfounded.

If the PDP eventually picks its candidate from the zone as being speculated, the Southern senatorial zone where the governor hails from would be up for grabs. Same applies to the North. But the gale of impeachment seems to have altered the conjecture, as the APC and its supporters are now upbeat about the days ahead. This, perhaps, informed the rounds of endorsements the governor has received in recent times.

One of the greatest endorsements Ahmed has received so far came from the northern senatorial district where the Emir of Lafiagi Alhaji Kawu Haliru, threw his weight behind his second term bid. At the event which also had prominent indigenes of the leading lights from the region including former governor of the state and senator representing Kwara North senatorial district, Senator Shaaba Lafiagi; member representing the area in the House of Representatives, Alhaji Aman Pategi, other public office holders, as well as community leaders, representatives of professional groups, youths, women, artisans and peasants, speakers cited the spread of development projects and empowerment schemes across the state as some of the reasons for Ahmed’s endorsement. They said that he has empowered the people through his numerous projects and programmes. Urging the APC to field him in next year’s poll, they maintained that the governor has lived up to expectation.

Being a highly respected royal father, Haliru is believed to have spoken the minds of his people. Political pundits believe that his blessings also came as a relieve to the governor’s camp, as it meant that the zone’s hitherto agitation for power shift, may no longer rub off on APC’s chances.

One of the reasons why the endorsement by the Haliru and the people of the northern senatorial district became particularly imperative was the alleged belief that Saraki had masterminded a one term agreement that would have seen Ahmed serve one term and subsequently hand over to somebody from Kwara North which is yet to produce a governor for the state. But since the endorsement of the governor, there has not been any contrary view. Also, the North, like the central, has the advantage of a bloc vote. Although there are some aspirants from the zone in the opposition vying for the governorship, they are paper weight actors.

For the south where the governor hails from, is solidly behind the governor. Many analysts tend to believe that the endorsements and other efforts like the mobilisation of indigenes of southern senatorial district appear to have properly positioned the governor in good stance for an endorsement from the Saraki-led state chapter of the party to emerge victorious in the 2015 governorship election.

In fact, his kinsmen have embarked on an aggressive mobilisation for his ambition. During the voter’s registration, they trooped out for the exercise. Now, the calculation is that the combined forces of Saraki in the Central and Ahmed’s foot soldiers in the South should be able to forge a working alliance with compatriots in the North to ensure the push for continuity next year.

Unfortunately, in of all this, the PDP is no convinced one bit. According to the party, this agenda may not work.  The party believes that endorsements do not translate into electoral victory, specifically adding that the royal father who has endorsed Ahmed lacked the mandate of the voting public. The state PDP Deputy Publicity Secretary Mr. Femi Yusuf doubted the validity of the endorsements, saying that it is unreliable.  He said the next election would be a battle of supremacy between the APC and the PDP. Faulting the endorsements, he said they were instigated by the government.

“Let me tell you the candid view of our party on the endorsement. We see it as a mere figment of the imagination of the APC. It does not provide the party with any leverage when the election comes.

“That aside, the traditional ruler is a civil servant, who collects salary from the state government monthly. So, what do you expect? When they are endorsing him for a second term, what would warrant the endorsement? What have they done for the area for them to say he should continue in office?

“You can only deserve endorsement, if you have surpassed the previous administrations. But, the past 12 years have shown that the people of the North District have been neglected. Go to Baruten or Kayama, Lafiagi and Patigi to see for yourself.”

However, the Special Adviser to Governor Ahmed on Communication Strategy, Alhaji Raheem Adedoyin, disagreed with the PDP spokesman.

He said: “The governor, through his ‘Shared Prosperity Agenda’, has sustained the impactful developmental momentum of his predecessor and he actually deserves the support of well-meaning people to continue his people-oriented projects.

“He has successfully consolidated on the projects of the former governor and opened up new ones, which have direct bearing on the people and that simply explain why the people are clamouring for continuity.”

The former Commissioner for Information listed some of the projects. They include the Independent Power Project (IPP) to drive industrialisation, the rehabilitation of schools, and the construction and rehabilitation of 800 kilometers of roads.

The administration also set up the Harmony Holdings and the Kwara Bridge Empowerment Scheme (KWABES). It has completed the construction of the Aviation College, which was established by the Saraki Administration, and the Vocational Centre, Ajase-Ipo.

Adedoyin said the governor has reduced fees paid by students in the state-owned institutions and provided N100 million micro-credit facility to empower the people.

He said five General Hospitals have been rehabilitated and 13 ambulances and drugs provided to hospitals among many other people-oriented projects embarked upon by the administration.