FORTY-seven-year old Kwara State is about to witness what some political analysts in the country have described as a drama at its best come the 2015 elections.

The political dynasty of the state, which is one of the states in the North-Central, was firmly in the grip of the late Second Republic Senate Leader, Dr Olusola Saraki, until his demise on November 14, 2012. It was customary for the philanthropist to say during his life te that the keys to the Ahmadu Bello Way Government House, the seat of power, were in his pocket. And he gave it to whomsoever he decided.

However, an interesting political history was recorded in the 2011 election, when the deceased could not give the keys to his daughter, Gbemisola, because his son, Dr. Bukola Saraki, who was the then governor, opposed the move, which set up a bitter political rivalry that was won by his son in the election.

Meanwhile, one of the interesting angles about the battle for the soul of Kwara in 2015 is the fact that most of the political big wigs and governorship aspirants in 2011 were formerly in the same party: PDP and under the same captain. However, the picture is no longer the same. While the former governor has joined the All Progressives Congress (APC) with his followers, some others have decided to remain under the umbrella of the PDP to, in their own words, salvage it and move it to its destination: Government House in 2015.

Members of APC in the state, it was gathered, have continued to boast that they control the election winning machinery made up of traditional and formal structures, including the ubiquitous young and old women and the youth. They also believe that the political structure, which had been built by Oloye, as the deceased was fondly called by his teeming admirers and supporters, for over 40 years ago and being nurtured by his son, Senator Saraki, will always point direction to where election victory will go in the state.

On the other hand, the PDP members, particularly, the stalwarts are relying on their individual political strength and popularity, including the backing of the Federal Government to cause an upset in the political equation of the state popularly known as State of Harmony. While most of the governorship aspirants for 2015 in the state are busy with their subterranean moves on how to actualise their ambitions, investigations have revealed that the contestants belong to two leading parties: APC and the PDP.  

Governor Ahmed

The incumbent governor of the state, Abdulfatah Ahmed, is generally seen to be in the race in view of the constitutional provision of two terms in office. However, some watchers said the picture is still hazy because of some ranging controversies, especially on a said agreement between him and his benefactors that he would only stay one term in office so that other zones in the state can take their turns and the long queues of qualified candidates for the governorship.

Ahmed remains a loyalist of Senator Saraki. Gifted and eloquent, those close to him have described how he rebuffs any side talks on the leadership system in the state

A banker before he ventured into politics, Ahmed in the last 11 years, has seen everything about governance, having been a Commissioner of Finance and Economic Development, as well as Planning before becoming the governor. With his policy of continuity, pundits say he has been able to complement the achievement of his predecessor in the provision of infrastructure in the state. To his credit, the Vocational College is standing at Ajase-Ipo, just as five general hospitals have been brought to international standards under his administration. 

The fact that he hails from Kwara South will also be a significant factor in the 2015 battle. The opposition will be waiting to see if Saraki will insist on the pre-2011 covenant among the then contestants to the effect that the governorship ticket will rotate among the three senatorial districts for a single term of four years each, or whether with the emergence of the APC, the old order will be swept aside to make way for a new agreement with Ahmed still the party’s candidate. 

Gbemisola Saraki

Senator Gbemisola Saraki, the younger sister of Bukola, also called GRS by her supporters, contested the governorship seat in 2011 on the platform of the Allied Congress Party of Nigeria (ACPN), which she joined after leaving the PDP. The politician, who returned to the PDP recently after the exit of her brother, former governor Bukola Saraki, is said to be preparing ground to contest next year’s election on the platform of PDP. She is even said to have the ears of both President Goodluck Jonathan and his wife, Patience. She is an influential daughter of late Saraki. The outcome of the PDP congresses in the state indicates that she has a support base and a network of fellow party leaders, who see issues from the same perspective with her.

At the end of the congresses, her group controls 15 of the 16 local government executive members of the party and 30 out of the 33 state executive members of the party. In terms of gender support, most of her female supporters are ladies. When she contested the gubernatorial election in 2011, she came third behind Ahmed then of the PDP and Mr. Dele Belgore of the then Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN). Her major setback then was her gender; as majority of Muslims in the state, particularly, in Ilorin emirate could not be convinced to vote for a woman as governor. We will all wait to see how it will go if she decides to contest in 2015.

GRS is known to be kind hearted, with a wide network of supporters cutting across the grassroots. The outcome of the PDP congresses and her evident influence may however become an issue if not well managed by the party because it means now that the real control of both the APC and the PDP are in the firm grips of the two Sarakis. Thus win or lose, the Sarakis will have the last laugh.

Razaq Atunwa

Atunwa is currently the Speaker of Kwara state House of Assembly. He started his political career in 2005 when he was appointed Commissioner for Land and Housing in Kwara State during Bukola Saraki’s administration. From that post, he moved to the Information Ministry as Commissioner in August 2006, and in July 2007 he became Commissioner for Works and Transport.

Again, he was moved to the Ministry of Finance in November 2009 from where he sought nomination for the governorship position in 2011. He was elected into the Kwara State House of Assembly to represent Owode/Onire Constituency of Asa Local Government in April 2011 and, on June 6, 2011, he was unanimously elected as Speaker of the Assembly. He indicated interest in the governorship ticket in 2011 and the fact that he was compensated with the Speakership meant he was considered a strong force in the process.

If the PDP decides to pick a candidate from the central district, Atunwa will be a strong choice for the APC. Atunwa 1, as popularly called among political circles in the state, is also a loyal member of the Saraki political structure. As the Speaker of the Assembly, he influences many things for the government such that his former colleague and friend, Ahmed, can focus on implementing the policies they agree on without fear of an uprising from the chamber.

Zakari Mohammed

Mohammed is a member of the House of Representatives from Kwara North axis of the state, precisely, Baruten/Kaiama federal constituency. A former broadcaster, Zakari began to demonstrate the gift in him, when he became the spokesman for the Mandate 2003, the political movement Bukola Saraki used to win the governorship ticket. Since then, he has not left anyone in doubt about his influence and capacity.

Although a first timer in the House, Mohahmed is the chairman of House Committee on Information. He has a strong influence among his people in the northern axis and there is no doubt that they are happy with the way he has brought attention to his state and community through his activities in the lower legislative chamber.

If the PDP should decide to go North in picking a candidate, there are strong indications that the lawmaker may be considered by the APC leadership for the race.

Bolaji Abdullahi

He describes himself as a technocrat and not a politician in the real sense. His sudden sack as Sports Minister by President Jonathan has conferred on the journalist a political strength that may be of use to the APC in 2015. The mammoth crowd that came to welcome him when he returned home after his sack and the elaborate reception put in place for him by the state cannot be easily forgotten.

Thus there may be reasons by his people to call him in 2015 to contest and with the way he was treated, his records of achievement in office and the general condemnation that trailed his sack, Abdullahi will definitely have something to tell the voters.

Makanjuola Ajadi

Ajadi is popularly known to be generous among his supporters and is known to be a core politician with vast grass root support. Ajadi, former lecturer, former commissioner, former senator and now Presidential Adviser on National Assembly Matters, is an old political war horse.

His appointment as presidential adviser is seen as an empowerment move for him and a measure to strengthen the PDP in the state. It is said that Ajadi has empowerment projects in several communities in his Southern Senatorial District. He is also a major force in the 2015 elections in Kwara State.

Shuaib Abdulraheem

Oba is a former Vice Chancellor, University of Ilorin and current chairman, Federal Character Commission (FCC). Oba, as he is called, has a major role to play in determining the outcome of the 2015 polls in the state. He is known to be interested in making another effort to secure the governorship ticket of his party in 2015, just as he did in 2011. When he came out in 2011, many were surprised because he was not well known as a politician but within the emirate.

But he now has a level of followership due to his ability to generate federal jobs for indigene of the emirate using his office as FCC boss. He is the leader of the Freedom Group in the PDP, which raised several objections to the outcome of the congress, but it appears Abuja has intervened as it appears they have decided to dump their petition and embrace the new party leadership in the state.

Oba came into limelight in his days as the Vice-Chancellor of University of Ilorin where he took the powerful Academic Staff Union of Universities (ASUU) headlong in an epoch battle that was eventually decided by the Supreme Court against him. As a prominent son of Ilorin emirate, he was honoured with the title, Talban of Ilorin.

Bola Shagaya

Not much is known about this woman politically apart from being a close friend of Dame Patience Jonathan. The powerful oil magnate has not wasted the opportunities of her relationship with the President’s wife. She is reputed to have been financing the PDP in the state following the exit of the governor and Saraki. 

Simeon Ajibola

Senator S. S. Ajibola is the senator representing Kwara South Senatorial District and he is the only serving member of the National Assembly from the state that refused to dump PDP for APC. He used to be in the same camp with Bukola Saraki until the latter defected to the APC. The Kwara south politician, who is serving his third term as senator has showed interest in the governorship race. He is one of the PDP chieftains who recently boasted of reclaiming control of the state from the claws of Saraki and Ahmed. Senator Ajibola became senator for Kwara South in June 2004 and was returned in 2007. He was again re-elected in 2011. Having garnered enough experience in the Upper Chamber, S.S Ajibola may think it is high time he climbed the ladder to serve his people better.

“Five times I’ve contested elections and have won them all. By 2015 or thereabout, Nigerians will know those who are grassroots politicians and those that are tigers on the pages of newspapers”, he said in a recent interview. 

Dele Belgore (SAN)

Another notable aspirant is Mohammed Dele Belgore, popularly referred to as MDB. He was the candidate of the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) in 2011 election, where he emerged as the first runner-up to the current governor. He remained a chieftain of the APC until recently when Saraki and Ahmed moved into the party and took over the structures. He left to the PDP, telling his supporters that he cannot afford to be in the same camp with Saraki. MDB is a member of the large and influential Belgore family of legal practitioners from Ilorin, and has a massive support from the emirate when he contested against Ahmed and GRS in 2011. He also had a massive media support from Lagos.  The Belgore name remains a strong asset for his political venture.

Bio Ibrahim

Ibrahim, a former Minister of Transport served as Speaker of the Kwara State House of Assembly during Saraki’s eight-year reign as governor. Many trace Ibrahim’s anger against Saraki to his failure to clinch the 2011 gubernatorial ticket of the PDP for which he resigned from what was considered as a juicy federal appointment.

He is now in the same circle with Oba. Unlike the latter, he could not regain his seat.

When he lost the race, he returned to his base and remained silent, due largely to ill health until his recent appointment as Chairman of the Nigerian Investment. However, from the barrage of criticism that greeted his recent verbal attack on Saraki, it is evident the former minister may not enjoy sufficient backing from his constituency.

This may be compounded with the fact that he comes from the same area as Zakari Mohammed who since assuming duty in the lower chamber of the National Assembly has put up a sterling performance that has endeared him to many. Nevertheless, the former minister remains a force to reckon with in 2015.

Abdulrahman Abdulrasaq

Abdulrazaq is said to be a very successful oil magnate. He has been running for the gubernatorial seat in the state since 2007. In 2011, he ran a successful campaign on the platform of the defunct Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) but suddenly travelled a few days to the election. He has a deep pocket and willingness to spend if the need arises and will be a major asset to the fund raising aspect of the 2015 political battle in the state. It is not certain if he will attempt to contest again but if he decides and wins the primaries, he will be a strong candidate. 

Lola Ashiru

Ashiru is a strong voice in his Southern district of the state. He has a vast network of supporters at the grassroots and was instrumental to the success of the Unity Group in defeating the Freedom Group at the PDP congress. His alliance with GRS yielded the landslide victory for the group. He was a major pillar in the old ACN and would have been the gubernatorial candidate before the Lagos Group insisted on fielding Belgore.

With that, he teamed up with the late Saraki in the defunct ACPN on which platform he contested for the Kwara South senatorial seat. Although he lost, Ashiru still describes his time with the late Waziri of Ilorin as the most beautiful of his political experience.

Ashiru remains a great mobiliser in the south. He was said to have lost because some key traditional rulers in the zone decided at the last minute to ensure victory for the PDP although they had an agreement with Ashiru. 

Sunday Babalola.

Sunday Babalola, an engineer,  is another politician that has shown interest in emerging the governor of the state in 2011 through the platform of the PDP. The politician was one of those prevailed upon to step down for Ahmed in the last election and he is said to have renewed his governorship ambition. It is not however quite clear, of recent, if he is still keen on his ambition of ruling the state. He is noted for grassroots mobilisation and philanthropy. We all wait to see if he has the muscle to run with array of personalities in his party.

Deacon John Dara.

In the case of Dara, he was the presidential candidate of the National Transformation Party. He was also a leading governorship aspirant of the PDP in 2003 before he lost the ticket to Bukola Saraki, who eventually won the governorship election that year. He is one of those who recently returned to the party and who are working to restore it as the ruling party in the state. The politician who described exit of Saraki’s group from the PDP as a blessing to the party is said to also be eyeing the governorship race.