Day by day, it is becoming clearer that President Goodluck Jonathan may not be returned to his position if he decides to re-contest in 2015. You can take this to the bank. Here are my reasons. The first reason is that the end of the intra-party crisis in his party, the Peoples Democratic Party, may not be in sight soon. The President's grip on the National Assembly has also considerably weakened by the current mass defections of legislators to the All Progressives Congress. The second is that he cannot boast the landslide votes that he got in 2011 in his home region of South-South and South-East or even the South-West. With the continuous insurgency in the North-East and the ineptitude of the Independent (some say partly dependent) National Electoral Commission, there is even a chance that the elections may be marred by violence and may be inconclusive in some parts of the North. The third is that with some controversial moves like signing the anti-gay bill into law, global sympathy for his government has reduced considerably as many pro-gay groups brace themselves to campaign for sanctions against his government. The fourth is that with the Petroleum Industry Bill still neglected, the President has confirmed his reluctance to reform the oil and gas industry - the key sector of the Nigerian economy. Under his reign, anti-corruption reforms have ceased to receive priority with unpleasant repercussions from friendly nations.

But there are those who think otherwise. They insist Jonathan will make it back in 2015. They cite the President's incumbency factor and enormous capability for political patronage. They have also pointed to the fact that he controls the security apparatus including the police and the military and could easily get them to do his bidding. The officials of the electoral umpire in Nigeria are said to be allegedly disposed to do the bidding of the man who appointed them to office. Though the current administration has commendably tried in giving some facelift to many airports in the country, the assessment of work done so far does not come anywhere close to the touted transformation. Jonathan's administration has also begun reforms in the power sector. However, many say that it will take a few more years for the dividends of the reforms to be visible to the public. Other observers are less optimistic and insist that what the reforms did were to hand the sector back to the same people who had long benefited from the rot in the sector. Another reason that may work in the favour of the President is the fact the opposition party, the All Progressives Congress, has yet to organise and market itself to Nigerians as a credible alternative platform. The party has yet to charm Nigerians as a political platform that will do things differently and fulfil the yearnings of the Nigerian masses. Rather, it keeps parading old faces, like the PDP, which may turn out to be its greatest undoing.

The protracted intra-party crisis in the ruling PDP has come with consequences that make the return of Jonathan slimmer. With the House of Representatives comfortably in the hands of the opposition APC, the fate of the Senate is shaking as up to 19 Senators may join the APC in the next few days. The public exchange of letters between former President Olusegun Obasanjo and Jonathan means that they might have parted ways even though they remain in the same party. With the forced exit of Bamanga Tukur as the party's National Chairman, many feel that the elevation of Obasanjo's associate, Adamu Mu'azu is meant to pacify him. No one can predict what will happen if Obasanjo regains his influence within the party especially given his alleged indisposition towards supporting a Jonathan candidature. Now, let us imagine that the Presidency will have its way and arm-twist the PDP to adopt Jonathan as a consensus candidate for the 2015 election. This is what the numbers look like at the moment if we look at the results of the 2011 elections and attempt to cautious extrapolations. In the last Presidential election, the PDP scored 22,495,187 votes nationwide. State scores were as follows: Rivers 1,817,762; Adamawa 508,314; Kano 440,666; Sokoto 309,057; Kwara 268,243; totalling 3,344,042. Which means that with the movement of the five governors to the APC, the ruling party is at risk of losing 14.8 per cent of the votes it got in 2011. Another 542,173 votes may be lost in Edo State while 1,381,357 votes are at risk in Imo State, which will take the percentage of votes at risk to 23.4 per cent. Even with the most generous estimates, it is near impossible for the PDP candidate to win 25 per cent in two-thirds of the 36 states i.e. 24 states, to be duly elected.

On a related note, the poor outing of INEC in the just concluded governorship election in Anambra State has cast a shadow of doubt on its competence, readiness, neutrality and professionalism as an electoral umpire. Officials of INEC were allegedly involved in actions that gave the incumbent party in the state an undue advantage over other parties' contestants. With the complacency, and some say collusion of security agencies, attacks have continued in many states of the North where there is currently an emergency rule. So far, many innocent lives have been lost and countless military installations have been destroyed. INEC had announced that it may not conduct elections in such states. The implication of this is that some eligible voters will be disenfranchised and the President may be elected by some zones and not by others.

In a related development, Jega had announced that government would not provide security for election monitors insisting that those interested in monitoring elections in 2015 would have to provide their own security. With heightening insecurity in states like Rivers where an allegedly partisan police have looked elsewhere, one will imagine that electoral violence is very likely. Recently, political rallies in the state have been disrupted by hoodlums allegedly sponsored by politicians loyal to the ruling party. It is believed that the interference in political rallies is part of a well-rehearsed plan to suppress growing opposition in the state.

As the domestic political uncertainties about the unlikelihood of the electoral victory of the PDP in Nigeria continue to play out, what might have nailed the final coffin internationally might be the recent Presidential accent to the anti-gay bill. Opinions are divided about this law in the country, however many international human rights organisations have condemned the law. Pro-gay organisations have started mounting campaigns to isolate the Jonathan administration. With very important bills like the PIB and the Railway Act amendment bill still pending at the National Assembly many years after, many people wonder that the speed with which the anti-gay bill was passed was just to take away attention from very critical bills. Many observers opine that the indifference towards the PIB by the Jonathan Presidency is due to his reluctance to pursue transparency in the oil and gas industry and to open up the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation, which is said to be the centre of the patronage ecosystem for the ruling party, with 10.8 billion dollars still missing. Many international friends of Nigeria and prospective investors are worried that the high tolerance of corruption by the government may force them move to other new oil producing countries for their investment.

With all of these factors staring the electorate in the face, Jonathan could find it extremely difficult to muster sufficient goodwill that can be translated to electoral victory both for him and his party in 2015. Indeed, it is a tough battle ahead. However, all hope is not lost. With the APC still looking like an association of desperate strange political bedfellows, a few conclusions can be made in a country where public resources have been creatively deployed in the past to buy votes and change electoral fortunes overnight. The battle is not over until it is over. Still,  the PDP can retrace its steps and pull a fast one on the opposition.