Date: 2014-02-27

There is a growing anxiety over the forthcoming 2015 election in Kwara State as the PDP spoils for war with the APC which recently transformed into the ruling party in the state following the defection of Governor Abdulfatah Ahmed and ex-Governor Bukola Saraki.

The defection last year of former Governor Bukola Saraki, and Governor Abdulfatah Ahmed as well as many Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) members in Kwara State has opened a new vista in the state's political climate.

 Since Saraki and the governor left the party, the two major parties in the state have witnessed rapid transformation that have changed their characters and outlook.

What makes Kwara's case more interesting is the fact that the state had been run on a solo front with the late strongman of Kwara politics, Dr. Olusola Saraki calling the shots and installing virtually all the people that held positions in the state.
But things seem to be changing as Bukola assumed the state's political leadership after his father's death on November 14, 2011.

His recent defection after having inherited his father's clout and followership, has thrown more challenges on his path.

Many politicians who rose on the crest of the late Saraki to clinch important political appointments have risen against his son, Bukola, while those who have never worked with the Saraki's dynasty also joined the fray in what an observer called the "gang-up" against Bukola Saraki, who is now the Senator representing Kwara Central in the National Assembly.

Taking advantage of the division in the Saraki family, those who are resolute to fight Bukola have found a willing tool in his sister and Senator Gbemisola Rukayyat Saraki, who has been at daggers drawn with her brother since the 2011 governorship election. 

GRS as she is fondly called, could not secure the PDP governorship ticket in 2011 prompting her to float the now rested Allied Congress Party of Nigeria (ACPN) to actualize her governorship ambition. She did not however go far as she was defeated by the PDP candidate who had the support of Bukola.

Notwithstanding the fence-mending and reconciliation that culminated in the return of former ACPN members to PDP, the relationship between the two siblings has remained frosty and has further exacerbated by the current political happening as Gbemi recently defected to PDP and declared support for President Goodluck Jonathan.

A hitherto depleted PDP after the defection of Saraki, Ahmed and their supporters is all of a sudden undergoing serious "fattening"; that has seen politicians, interest groups and individuals defecting to the party.

While Gbemi's defection to PDP  could have been induced by her long-standing rift with her brother, others who hitherto worked with late Saraki including commissioners and aides during Bukola's tenure currently challenge his leadership due to the zeal to explore opportunities in the PDP and prefer to view his defection as an opportunity to take charge and be actively involved.

Director-General of Kwara Afresh Campaign Organisation, Demola Lawal said Saraki's defection has broadened the space for more people to participate in the politics of the state. He said Saraki's defection and that of the governor has not in any way affected the PDP's fortunes in the state.

The PDP has also used the opportunity of the departure of the governor and leader of the party to recruit many  to join the party and to fight Bukola.

 Apart from early actors in the struggle like the chairman, Federal Character Commission (FCC), Professor Shuaib Abdulraheem, former minister of transport and sports, Alhaji Isa Bio, pioneer PDP chairman in the state, Barrister Kunle Sulyman, Senator Simeon Ajibola representing Kwara North, the party has been able to woo aggrieved APC members to its fold. Among them were the ACN governorship candidate in the 2011 election, Mr. Dele Belgore, his Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) counterpart, Alhaji Abdulrahman Abdulrazaq and their supporters. As it stands now, virtually all the governorship candidates of opposition parties in the 2011 election including that of Labour Party, Benjamin Oyinloye have defected to PDP. Others who were not known to be actively involved in Kwara politics like the senior special assistant to the President on ethics and value, Dr. Sarah Jibril, business tycoon and associate of First Lady Patience Jonathan, Hajia Muhinat Sagaya, Dr. Alimi Abdulrazaq, among others have keyed into the battle. They were all in attendance at the PDP Unity Rally in Ilorin on Sunday which witnessed mammoth crowd of PDP supporters and followers who did not only pledge support for the National Working Committee under Dr. Adamu Mu'azu but acknowledged the leadership of President Jonathan.

Equally conscripted into the battle was son of former Governor Mohammed Lawal, Hakeem, who was once quoted to have said he would never have anything to do with politics. He held a rally at his father's expansive villa in GRA where he announced his defection to PDP.

A source in the PDP told Daily Trust that the alignment and realignment of forces against the APC is aimed at cutting Bukola Saraki politically. "As you can see there is a groundswell of opposition against Bukola and this is what this current battle is all about; it is a fight to finish with Saraki", said the source.

Speaking at the rally, the Chairman of PDP caretaker committee, Hon. Solomon Edoja restated that PDP is synonymous with Kwara state, assuring that the party would win the 2015 election. He also disclosed that President Jonathan alongside PDP NWC would visit the state on Monday apparently to receive new defectors into the party, urging the supporters to come out en-masse to receive the President.

In a chat with our correspondent, the SSA on Ethics and Values said the essence of the gathering and realignment was to celebrate freedom in the state.

"The essence is to show that there are more people that believe in Kwara State; more people that appreciate their dignity, that are celebrating their liberation; their freedom from all this chronic enslavement that misinterpreted democracy in Kwara State", stated the Presidential aide.

But Saraki appears unfazed by the groundswell of opposition against the APC. With the machinery of government at his disposal, Saraki also has the support of all federal lawmakers except Senator Ajibola; all the 16 LG Chairmen and 20 out of 22 PDP state legislators have equally defected to APC. 

Addressing newsmen at the weekend, Saraki said the gale of cross-carpeting to PDP is not a threat to APC's domination. He also said the PDP is threatened by the success of APC registration exercise with more than 380, 000 members registered. Saraki, however, challenged the PDP to equally conduct its party registration to test its popularity.

He said, "In 2011, Governor Abdulfatah Ahmed won election with about 250 something thousand. If today, we are registering card-carrying members of 380 something thousand, you can see that if I was in the other side too, I would be feeling jittery and I would be organising rally that really does not mean anything. " 
Saraki said APC is open and ready to receive supporters who decide to change their steps and return to the fold. It is on the basis of this he disclosed that a reconciliation committee has been set up to woo those who remain in PDP to APC.

But Professor Abdulraheem, former Vice-Chancellor of University of Ilorin who is a prominent PDP stakeholder speaking at the party rally maintained that Saraki and others who dumped PDP for APC willingly cross-carpeted without anybody's prompting. He said they should be ready to vacate Government House by 2015. 
It is not clear to what extent the alliance against Saraki  will go but it is crystal clear that the 2015 election in Kwara State would not be the same as the previous ones.