Date: 2014-12-14

After an initial deadlock, the governorship primary of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in Kwara State was held last Thursday night with Senator Simeon Sule Ajibola emerging as the flag bearer of the party for the 2015 election. 

Our correspondent takes a look at the implication of Ajibola’s emergence and his capacity to defeat the incumbent Governor Abdulfatah Ahmed.

The outcome of the PDP gubernatorial primary election was unexpected. It came as a shock to many members of the party and observers of events leading to the 2015 election in the state who had least anticipated the emergence of the soft-spoken Senator. To many, it is democracy in action, having provided the right ambiance for an impartial selection process.

Several factors have led to his marginal victory among the other aspirants, including those believed and considered to be formidable aspirants. These include but not limited to the inability of the aspirants to agree at consensus, the discordant tunes within the party, the overt dealing among the aspirants and most importantly the aspirants’ insistence on no imposition. 

It was the allegation of imposition that in the first place stalled the initial election. The aspirants alleged that while 709 people were on the delegates’ list of the party, the figure suddenly doubled and became 1, 500, raising suspicion that illegal delegates had been smuggled into the venue.

They (the aspirants) then called for the use of original delegates’ list of 709 and advocated free and fair exercise. 

At the end of the exercise held on Thursday night and concluded in the early hours of Friday at the heavily fortified Arca Santa centre, Ajibola was declared winner of the primary with 144 votes, followed by Mr. Dele Belgore, who scored 132 votes while Senator Gbemisola Rukayyat Saraki came third with 113 votes.

Other results as announced by the panel Chairman, Governor Gabriel Suswam of Benue State were Senator Mokanjuola Ajadi (107), Professor Oba Abdulraheem (58), Hon. Bio Ibrahim (45); Engineer Jani Ibrahim (27), Alhaji Hakeem Lawal (33), Deacon John Dara (four), Sunday Babalola (3) and Kale Belgore (1) while Sanusi Abdullahi got no vote.

The split votes garnered by all the aspirants reflect the deep-seated discordant tunes among them. It was a kind of ego and unbridled ambition which combined to split the votes which eventually favoured Senator Ajibola, who coincidentally was the Chairman of Kwara PDP gubernatorial aspirants’ forum which signed undertaking to support any candidate who emerged at the primary election. 

In retrospect, Belgore, who came second with 132 votes, was believed to have been propped up by the Presidency and some PDP chieftains in the state as a consensus candidate. The choice of Belgore was discernible, given his pedigree as the candidate of the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) in the 2011 election, who was able to stoutly challenge the incumbent leadership and garnered many votes even as a new entrant into the state’s political firmament.

However, other aspirants were vehement in their opposition to Belgore’s candidacy. They would rather prefer to conduct primary election for the candidate to emerge instead of foisting a candidate on them.

Indication that Belgore might not be favoured in the race emerged last Sunday during the Senatorial election as a supposedly anointed candidate for Kwara Central Senatorial district, Alhaji Abdulrahman Abdulrazaq was defeated by Yinka Aluko by two votes’ margin. Abdulrazaq was one of the governorship aspirants, who was persuaded to run for the Senate’s seat in order to prune the list and pave the way for Belgore. But Abdulrazaq could not scale through at the primary election.

The outcome of the primary was least expected. Many have predicted the emergence of Gbemi Saraki or Abdulraheem, a former Chairman of the Federal Character Commission (FCC) or any other aspirant from Central, including Belgore and Hakeem Lawal, son of late Governor Mohammed Lawal, who has now been nominated as the Deputy Governor. But the outcome has also underscored the unpredictability of politics. It has shown that given free and fair election, the unexpected could happen. For those agitating for a Kwara South candidate like the Freedom Group which appealed to PDP members to give the ticket to a southern candidate as done by the APC, Ajibola’s emergence is a victory for them.

But the concern remains the candidate’s ability to defeat the incumbent Governor and the candidate of the Bukola Saraki-led All Progressives Congress (APC), who is also from Kwara South. While he may garner some votes in the zone, he might not receive the support of the Central, which has always determined the outcome of any election. Besides, the candidates of Kwara Central, who lost out in the primary election, might want to show a lukewarm attitude to his victory at the poll. 

Ajibola, a qualified Quantity Surveyor, who hails from Isapa in Ekiti Local Government Area of the state, is never a political neophyte. He had seen it all as a politician. He was elected delegate to the 1994-95 constitutional conference. He had been Federal Commissioner of Revenue Mobilization Allocation and Fiscal Commission (RMAFC). He was a member of the House of Representatives. He is currently spending his third term as a Senator representing Kwara South in the National Assembly. 

However, Ajibola, having been a member of the dynasty of Olusola Saraki, has got to prove that the dynasty is not instrumental to his feats as a politician as he has always said. It would be recalled that when former Governor Bukola Saraki dumped PDP for APC, Ajibola is the only federal legislator, who refused to follow Saraki to APC and teamed up with like-minds to rebuild the PDP.

Certainly, it will not be an easy task for the party as some of his members may decamp to another party. The possibility of Belgore leaving the party for another party to test his popularity and acceptance at the gubernatorial poll is also high.

In any case, the way the party is able to manage the post-primary grievances will make or mar its chances of defeating the ruling party. 

A PDP leader in the state and the Minister of National Planning, Dr. Abubakar Sulaiman, while reacting to Ajibola’s victory called on stakeholders in the party to remain a strong united family ahead of the coming election.

“The PDP is one big united family that has the uphill task of moving Kwara to the next level. It is one party the people of the state look up to for redemption. And we cannot but agree that this feat can’t be achieved if we are not united. May I also plead with all stakeholders within the party to be calm and work towards our common goal of giving hope to people of the state in 2015.

“It is not in doubt that the exercise which culminated in the emergence of Senator Ajibola was indeed arduous and tasking. Specifically, I want to commend the Governor Gabriel Suswam-led panel for its fairness and transparency in the conduct of the keenly contested exercise.

“While I want to congratulate Senator Ajibola on his emergence, I wish to specially commend all contestants for the coveted ticket for their spirit of sportsmanship and urge them to garner support for the party’s candidate by forgetting any supposed misgiving of the past,” said the Minister in a statement by his Special Assistant on Media, Alhaji Abdulrahman Abdulrauf.